THE
FANTASY VALUE OF
SECOND YEAR PLAYERS
November 10, 1998
As you peruse
player profiles for potential draft days steals, a
good group to concentrate on are the second year
players. It is difficult for an NBA rookie to make
an impact since there are so many adjustments for
them to make during the transition from the college
game. The second year players often are the ones
who make the greatest strides.
Consider this
years number 1 pick Michael Olowokandi; he played
in 33 games for Pacific last season averaging 31.7
mpg for a total of 1045 minutes. At the same time,
Tim Duncan, the previous number 1 pick was playing
in 82 games for the San Antonio Spurs averaging
39.1 mpg for a total of 3204 minutes played, which
is more than 3 times the amount Olowokandi played.
Not all rookies can withstand the huge increase in
minutes played from their final college year to
their rookie year as successfully as Tim Duncan. As
a result, it takes time for them to adjust to not
only the increased minutes but also the higher
level of competition. Other rookies have limited
fantasy value since they are not good enough to
start right away for the team that drafted
them.
It is during the
second year that many NBA players show dramatic
improvement in their stamina and have developed
more of the skills they need to win playing time.
It is from this group that fantasy owners can find
potential draft steals. Consider the following
improvements registered by last years sophomore
class (overall draft position is in
parentheses):
- Ray Allen
(5) increased his scoring from 13.4 ppg to 19.5
ppg.
- Erick
Dampier (11) increased his rebounding from 4.1
rpg to 8.7 rpg.
- Kobe Bryant
(13) increased his scoring from 7.6 ppg to 15.4
ppg.
- Steve Nash
(15) increased his scoring from 3.3 ppg to 9.1
ppg.
- John Wallace
(18) increased his scoring from 4.8 ppg to 14.0
ppg.
- Derek Fisher
(24) increased his assists from 1.5 apg to 4.1
apg.
The following is
a look at the fantasy potential of this years
sophomore class;
(1) Tim
Duncan
was an exceptional rookie and won't be slipping
down in any fantasy draft. Last year he scored more
total points than any other NBA center including
Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwan,
Patrick Ewing, and Alonzo Mourning. The improvement
that Duncan could see in his second year is to go
from a top ten fantasy player to a player worthy of
being taken first overall in a fantasy draft. The
area where he needs the most work is free throw
shooting where he shot only 66% last year. Unlike
Shaq, Duncan should be able to improve in this
category.
(2) Keith Van
Horn is
an example of a player who hit the 'rookie wall' in
the second half of last year despite missing the
first month of the season. As his conditioning
improves these dips in play will be minimized. Van
Horn is already a 20 ppg scorer but he lags in the
assist, steal, and rebound categories. This lack of
production in the non scoring categories may lead
some fantasy owners to overvalue Van Horn in this
years fantasy draft, although he will continue to
improve.
(3) Chauncey
Billups
had an increase in playing time from 26 mpg to 31
mpg when he was traded from Boston to Toronto
although his stats did not improve with the extra
minutes. If Billups can retain the starting job in
Toronto he should see an increase in his fantasy
value throughout the season. The Raptors, though,
are not convinced he is their starter, making him a
somewhat risky pick; but with risk comes the
potential for rewards.
(4) Antonio
Daniels
was a high draft pick who fell short of
expectations last season. Throughout the year his
playing time decreased and he was traded during the
1998 draft from Vancouver to the San Antonio Spurs.
Should Daniels learn from the mistakes of his
rookie year, he could see an increase in his
currently low fantasy value if an injury to Avery
Johnson gives him a chance to play.
(5) Tony
Battie
started strongly last season but as the Nuggets
continued to lose his performances declined and he
was eventually traded to the Lakers during the 1998
draft. While he has fantasy potential through his
shot blocking and rebounding, on a good team like
the Lakers, he will most likely be a reserve player
with little fantasy value through next
season.
(6) Ron
Mercer
was spoken of highly during his rookie year but he
has many weaknesses from a fantasy perspective. His
rebounding and shot blocking are sub par and he
does not hit the trey. Under Pitino he should
continue to improve, but the 15 ppg he averaged
last year suggests a fantasy value higher than he
truly has. He probably won't slip in a fantasy
draft to the point where he should be taken.
(7) Tim
Thomas
left college after only one season making his
transition to the pro's even tougher than most
rookies. Thomas has the ability to contribute in
multiple statistical categories and should see a
great increase in fantasy value next year as his
playing time on the Sixers increases.
(8) Adonal
Foyle
played primarily as a backup to Erick Dampier at
center last year and has fantasy potential through
shot blocking and rebounding. Foyle could gain more
playing time next year if Golden State does not
re-sign Clarence Weatherspoon and Jason
Caffey.
(9) Tracy
McGrady
went straight from High School to the NBA but
already showed signs of improvement at the end of
last season. He started the final 11 games of the
season, averaging 11.2 points and 8.0 rebounds in
33.3 minutes per game during that period. McGrady
also has the ability to block shots and steal the
ball and could be a huge draft day steal.
(10) Danny
Fortson
finished the season strongly averaging 13.8 ppg and
6.6 rpg over the final two months. He has strengths
in the rebounding and free throw categories and has
been mentioned as starter next year with Battie
being traded to the Lakers.
(11) Tariq
Abdul-Wahad (Olivier Saint-Jean) improved his
output in the final part of the season averaging
12.6 ppg over the last six games including 31
points on the last day of the season. With Richmond
gone there will be a need for Wahad to continue his
improvement.
(12) Austin
Croshere
was a mid-round pick who began the season with a
broken hand and could not break into the rotation
of the deep Indiana Pacers. Next year he will
probably continue to spend most of his time on the
bench.
(13) Derek
Anderson started the first 10 games for the
Cavaliers but then saw his playing time interrupted
with injuries, thus continuing a trend from his
college days. He has a particular strength with his
free throw percentage where he was a league leader,
but I would hesitate to take Anderson until he
shows he can remain healthy.
(14) Maurice
Taylor
was one of the top scorers on a per minute basis
last season averaging 11.5 ppg in only 21 mpg.
Taylor should see an increase in playing time and
scoring next season, but there is much competition
at the forward position on the Clippers.
(15) Kelvin
Cato is
a tremendous shot blocker who averaged 1.3 bpg in
only 13.6 mpg. Cato is a backup to the injury prone
Arvydas Sabonis and will get more opportunities to
play next season.
(16) Brevin
Knight
is a two category fantasy player, assists and
steals, but he gives significant contributions in
both. Knight will continue to log impressive
fantasy performances next season as his 3.4 assist
to turnover ratio indicates he knows how to run the
Cavalier offense.
(17) Johnny
Taylor
appeared in only 12 games last year spending most
on the year on the injured list. He played the last
3 games on the season scoring 10 points in two of
them.
(18) Chris
Anstey
did not participate in training camp and went on to
miss many games due to injury. He was a viable
fantasy player for the first half of March
averaging 15 ppg and may get more opportunities
next year as he backs up the injury prone Shawn
Bradley.
(19) Scot
Pollard
did not show much fantasy potential his rookie year
as he recorded 37 DNP-CD's.
(20) Paul
Grant is
a player who made it to the NBA because of his
height but was unable to contribute anything his
first year.
(21) Anthony
Parker has a sweet shot in practice but
needs to gain a lot of confidence before he can
make any contributions at the NBA level.
(22) Ed
Gray can
score and that is exactly what the Hawks needs from
him particularly now that it is known that Laettner
will not be around next season. Gray was slowed
last year not only by a fractured foot but by
behavior problems. If his attitude improves, he has
the potential to be a fantasy steal.
(23) Bobby
Jackson
began the year as a fantasy steal with the Nuggets
contributing points, assists, and rebounds. His
stats plummeted after returning from a broken
finger injury and had to compete with Cory
Alexander for time. Jackson will not match his
early season numbers from last year as Nick Van
Exel was acquired in a trade.
(24) Rodrick
Rhodes averaged 18 mpg for the Rockets
last season and that should increase next year with
the departure of Clyde Drexler.
(25) John
Thomas
was drafted by the Knicks, traded to Boston, and
then again to Toronto and has been unable to get
any playing time anywhere.
(26) Charles
Smith
did not get much playing time last year with Miami
or the Clippers, but did score in double figures in
3 of the last 5 games of the season when an injury
to Eric Piatkowski gave him a chance to
play.
(27) Jacque
Vaughn
needs to wait a couple more years for playing time
as he backs up John Stockton and Howard Eisley in
Utah.
(28) Keith
Booth had the 'misfortune' of being
drafted by the World Champion Bulls where he was
unable to get off of the injured list much less the
bench.
(29) Jerald
Honeycutt played well when Terrel Brandon was
injured with a strength in the three point category
and the ability to contribute a little bit across
the stat sheet. has the potential to be a fantasy
steal if given more opportunities to play.
(30) Anthony
Johnson
saw significant playing time but was not very
productive. The acquisition of Jason Williams will
take away the playing time he enjoyed his rookie
year.
(31) Cedric
Henderson was a standout second round pick
for the Cavs in terms of playing time but was not a
particularly strong fantasy player.
(32) God
Shammgod
has a shot at getting more playing time and
contributing in the assist category if Rod
Strickland signs with another team.
(33) Eric
Washington received significant playing time
as a second round pick for the Nuggets but faded
away toward the end of the season.