CENTER PREVIEW
November 16, 1998
For many fantasy
leagues the centers are the most valuable players.
A good center will give your team significant
contributions in the points, rebounds, blocks, free
throws made, and field goal percentage categories.
The sum of these contributions are often more
valuable to your team than a guard or forward who
has strengths in other categories such as assists,
steals, and three pointers.
In leagues that
require two starting centers in the lineup, the
relative scarcity of centers compared to the other
positions gives them an added value. When drafting
a fantasy team it is wise to use a top pick to take
your first center and follow that with drafting
another center before the mid rounds. If you wait
too long to take your second center, you may end up
starting an unproductive player.
The following is
a review of the players who will be the top
performing fantasy centers in the league next
season:
Top Centers
O'neal,
Shaquille - In the past two seasons Shaq has
played 51 and 60 games. Normally when a player miss
so many they are labeled as injury prone but
looking at Shaq he doesn't really appear that
frail. I'm wondering if Shaq drank Pepsi as a kid
rather than milk as his injuries include a
fractured wrist from hitting a punching bag (or so
we are told). Part of the reasons for his injuries
are the number of hard fouls he takes because of
his poor free throw shooting. Even missing 22 games
last season, Shaq was 10th in total points scored.
Next season, he will most likely lead the league in
total scoring, even if he does miss several games
again. In leagues not considering the free throw %
category Shaq could justifiably be taken as the
number 1 player overall. Perhaps the greatest
benefit Shaq gives a team is the enormous boost his
58% field goal shooting provides. Although he
struggles to hit half his free throws, he is still
making around 6 per game which is substantial also.
In leagues with the FT% category, though, I would
suggest you avoid Shaq, as there is always some
owner who will still take him number 1 despite the
fact that his FT% will put you near the bottom in
that category.
Duncan,
Tim -
What
center will be better than Duncan next season?
Maybe only Shaquille, that is if Shaq doesn't miss
a huge number of games again. Last season Duncan
played EVERY game averaging close to 40 mpg. Duncan
will give strong contributions in the traditional
big man categories of pts, reb, blk, and fg%. His
weaknesses are ft% where he shot 66% and turnovers
where he averaged 3.4. The advantage of having
Duncan as your top center is that he is young,
durable, and improving.
Robinson,
David
- A
couple years back The Admiral was the dominate
fantasy player and now the title will go to Shaq
and teammate Tim Duncan in the future. But Robinson
will still be very good. Never in his career has he
shot less than 50% and except for the 6 game season
two years ago he has been very durable. Even
playing 'only' 34 mpg he has the capability to be
an elite fantasy player. A concern with Robinson
will be the chronically sore knee that forced him
to sit out games toward the end of last
season.
Mutombo, Dikembe
- Dikembe has proven to be one of
the more durable and productive centers in recent
years. His typical numbers are 13 ppg, 11 rpg, and
3.5 blocks per game. It is his outstanding shot
blocking that makes him one of the elite fantasy
centers in the league. Mutombo has posted a season
averages as high as 4.5 blocks per game in the past
and it is not uncommon to see 6 finger waving
blocks in the box score.. As of late Mutombo has
been devoting much time to the Players Union trying
to preserve salaries such as the 11$ million he
will earn next year. His fantasy owners should hope
that he squeezed some workouts in between.
Close to the Top
Ewing,
Patrick
- I
expect Ewing to bounce back strongly from the wrist
injury which forced him to miss the majority of
last season although he still needs to wear a soft
brace. Ewings minutes were down to 33 per game last
year and he will probably be in that range again
next season. He is productive enough in that time
to remain a very good fantasy player, but he is not
in the class of Shaq O'Neal anymore. Ewing gives
his fantasy teams a particular boost in the fg%
category (50%) and the FT made category (5.2 pg).
The addition of Camby to the team may lower Ewings
shot blocking as Camby swats a few away before Pat
has a chance too. Ewings knees may benefit from a
shortened season, and as the Players Union
President he appears to be making sure the season
will be as short as possible.
Olajuwon,
Hakeem
- Last
year Hakeem was one of the premier fantasy players
on a per minute basis although he played only 35
mpg in 47 games. What has made Olajuwan such a good
fantasy player in the past is his contribution in
the non-center categories of steals (1.8 spg) and
assists (3.0 apg). A sign that he has slowed down
is the past two years he has averaged less than 10
rpg. Olajuwon has been criticized for these
performances and has been working hard on
conditioning to rehabilitate from the knee surgery
that slowed him last year.
Mourning,
Alonzo -
Mourning
has shown once again he doesn't have the brains to
stay out of foul trouble (3.6 fouls per game) so he
can reach the upper 30's in minutes played per game
and join the club of elite centers. When he stays
out of foul trouble he can post very impressive
stats, but last season he posted a career low in
minutes per game averaging of only 33.4 and along
the way posted a career low in the block category
averaging only 2.2 per game. This drop in blocks
knocked him out of the top 10 fantasy players;
although still good, he is playing below his
potential. Also reducing his fantasy value is his
injury history and he already has had preseason
surgery to remove bone spurs from his knee.
Ilgauskas,
Zydrunis
- Coming
off an entire season missed due to injury,
Ilgauskas played in all 82 games last season.
Playing only 29 mpg he averaged 14 ppg, 9 rpg while
shooting 52%. Next year should be an even stronger
for Zydrunis. Ilgauskas did not get that much
publicity last season and he may be a player you
can pick off as a mid-round fantasy draft
steal.
Good Second Centers
Olowokandi,
Mike
-
Olowokandi will definitely get plenty of playing
time as the number one overall draft pick. He
averaged 22 ppg, 11.2 rpg, and 2.9 bpg at Pacific
and should be able to make some contributions in
these categories at the pro level. Olowokandi is
not as well known as your typical number 1 pick and
therefore could slip in a fantasy draft. If he
performs as the Clippers anticipate, he could be a
fantasy draft steal.
Bradley,
Shawn
- For
any rotisserie style league with blocks as a
category, Bradley can make significant
contributions. Although last year he regressed to
his injury riddled ways, in a league thin at the
center position, he might be worth taking with a
relatively high pick. If you do take Bradley, make
sure to not add another shot blocking specialist
such as Marcus Camby to your team as Bradley can
take care of that category by himself.
Sabonis,
Arvydas
-
Sabonis surprised me last year by increasing his
per game playing time from 25.5 mpg to 32 mpg. He
has always been one of the most productive players
on a per minute basis but his physical liabilities
limit his minutes and cause him to periodically
miss games. As a center Sabonis can contribute in
all the categories including 3 apg, 1 spg, an
occasional trey, and 80% free throw shooting. These
stats supplement his strong rebounding totals.
Dampier,
Erick
- Given
the crop of NBA centers, Dampier would be a real
solid fantasy second center. He showed himself to
be durable in his second season as he appeared in
all 82 games. Like many big men he needs to work on
his FT%, but he gives quality output in the bl,
reb, and ftm categories. Playing for a new contract
next year, Dampier is a player with a big upside
potential.
Divac,
Vlade -
Vlade is
the type of player who can go through stretches
where he is a fantasy star. To open the season last
year he averaged 20 pts, 8 rebs, 4 ast, and 2 bl
during the first week. Then there are other nights
where he may give you practically nothing. These
lapses have prevented him from being a premier
fantasy player but he still remains good. He is
currently one of the highly sought after free
agents, but I would be cautious if he signs a cushy
long term contract that may serve as incentive to
take it easy on more nights next season. Note that
Divac had emergency surgery for a perforated
appendix in early September and there are rumors
that he may play in Europe if the lockout lasts too
long.
Austin,
Isaac
- As was
shown in Miami last year, Isaac needs to start to
be a productive fantasy player. With Austin being
one of the most sought after free agents, chances
are he will be a starter next season where he
should average 16 ppg and 9 rpg, although his lack
of shot blocking prevents him from being one of the
better fantasy centers.
Reeves,
Bryant
- Reeves
has averaged only 75 games in his first three
seasons and the games he misses can ruin many of
your fantasy weeks. Although he will average around
17 ppg and 9 rpg next season, his lack of
production in the block category makes him second
center material.
Geiger,
Matt
-
Geiger's fantasy value will depend heavily on which
team he signs with as a free agent. As a starter he
can be a decent fantasy player but last year he
spent much of his time on the bench behind the
Vlade Divac. As a starter averaging 36 mpg Geiger
could contribute 15 ppg, 9 rpg, and 1.5 bpg.
Williams,
Brian
- Like
many of the 'second centers', Williams can score
and rebound, but he falls short in the important
shot block category. He will average around 16 ppg
and 9 rpg again next season but his fantasy value
is limited by getting less than 1 block per game
from the center position.
Johnson,
Ervin
- Ervin
showed flashes of good play last year with
strengths in the block and rebound categories
although he did not score much. Andrew Lang has not
played well for the Bucks so Johnson should not
have much competition for playing time next year.
Not missing many games due to injury, Johnson would
be a good mid to late round center acquisition for
your fantasy team.
Smits,
Rik
- Smits
has the ability to score and rebound a little but
his lack of production in the other categories (ast
and stl) is so woeful he could end up hurting your
team if his scoring tricks you into taking him too
high in a fantasy draft. He blocks a shot here and
there, but not nearly what you need from your
center, particularly one that is 7-4. In his 10
year career he has managed to average over 30 mpg
only twice (barely) which further limits his stat
output. In many leagues, owners desperate for a
center often overlook his liabilities and pay too
high a price for him.
Looking for Warm Bodies
Longley,
Luc
- Many a
fantasy owner has pined for the day when Luc would
wake up and start playing some ball. Limiting his
fantasy value is his tendency to pick up fouls.
Last season, Longley played 29 mpg which is the
most amount of playing time he has averaged in one
season and he posted a career high scoring avg of
11.4 ppg. As a free agent, Longley may be able to
improve his fantasy value on his team where center
scoring is more important than it has been with the
Bulls.
Ostertag,
Greg
-
Ostertag did not seem motivated last year after
signing his lucrative long term contract and
quickly found himself on the Utah bench. A top
priority for the Jazz in the off season is to sign
a free agent center and give Ostertag more
opportunities to sit on the bench and relax. In an
interview on ESPN, Malone said that he would offer
a significant amount of his own contract to bring
in a quality center. Tag has the potential to be a
strong rebounder and shot blocker in a league with
few quality big men and Utah may have no choice but
to give him playing time if they strike out in the
free agent market. It should be noted that Ostertag
had a case of meningitis this past
offseason.
Garrett,
Dean
- Last
year Dean Garrett suffered by playing with a group
of selfish players who did not deliver the ball to
him often. Garrett gives strong numbers in the reb
and bl categories but also gets a decent amount of
steals for a big man. With the addition of Nick Van
Exel look for Dean to score more than the 7 ppg he
averaged last season.
Campbell,
Elden -
Many
trade rumors had Eldon's name in them last season
and that is what it will take to restore the
fantasy value he had before Shaq came to town. Last
season he averaged only 22 mpg (even though Shaq
missed 22 games!). If playing 30+ mpg Eldon can
make significant contributions in the reb, bl, and
ftm categories. Reports are that the Lakers will
definitely trade Eldon when the lockout is over
which gives him the potential to be a draft day
steal.
Seikaly,
Rony -
There
has to be something wrong with Rony if the Magic
are willing to just give him away to the Nets.
Seikaly may be draft steal material next year as
many fantasy managers have forgotten him since he
disappeared at the end of the previous season. You
might want to try to nab him late in your fantasy
draft after you have confirmed he has a pulse in
the preseason and hope he returns to the form he
had in Orlando.
To see where
these centers should go in an overall fantasy draft
customized to your leagues scoring system, order
the
Hoops Klyce Pre-Season Player Rating
Report.