THE HOOPSKLYCE PAGE

CENTER PREVIEW

November 16, 1998

For many fantasy leagues the centers are the most valuable players. A good center will give your team significant contributions in the points, rebounds, blocks, free throws made, and field goal percentage categories. The sum of these contributions are often more valuable to your team than a guard or forward who has strengths in other categories such as assists, steals, and three pointers.

In leagues that require two starting centers in the lineup, the relative scarcity of centers compared to the other positions gives them an added value. When drafting a fantasy team it is wise to use a top pick to take your first center and follow that with drafting another center before the mid rounds. If you wait too long to take your second center, you may end up starting an unproductive player.

The following is a review of the players who will be the top performing fantasy centers in the league next season:

Top Centers

O'neal, Shaquille - In the past two seasons Shaq has played 51 and 60 games. Normally when a player miss so many they are labeled as injury prone but looking at Shaq he doesn't really appear that frail. I'm wondering if Shaq drank Pepsi as a kid rather than milk as his injuries include a fractured wrist from hitting a punching bag (or so we are told). Part of the reasons for his injuries are the number of hard fouls he takes because of his poor free throw shooting. Even missing 22 games last season, Shaq was 10th in total points scored. Next season, he will most likely lead the league in total scoring, even if he does miss several games again. In leagues not considering the free throw % category Shaq could justifiably be taken as the number 1 player overall. Perhaps the greatest benefit Shaq gives a team is the enormous boost his 58% field goal shooting provides. Although he struggles to hit half his free throws, he is still making around 6 per game which is substantial also. In leagues with the FT% category, though, I would suggest you avoid Shaq, as there is always some owner who will still take him number 1 despite the fact that his FT% will put you near the bottom in that category.

Duncan, Tim - What center will be better than Duncan next season? Maybe only Shaquille, that is if Shaq doesn't miss a huge number of games again. Last season Duncan played EVERY game averaging close to 40 mpg. Duncan will give strong contributions in the traditional big man categories of pts, reb, blk, and fg%. His weaknesses are ft% where he shot 66% and turnovers where he averaged 3.4. The advantage of having Duncan as your top center is that he is young, durable, and improving.

Robinson, David - A couple years back The Admiral was the dominate fantasy player and now the title will go to Shaq and teammate Tim Duncan in the future. But Robinson will still be very good. Never in his career has he shot less than 50% and except for the 6 game season two years ago he has been very durable. Even playing 'only' 34 mpg he has the capability to be an elite fantasy player. A concern with Robinson will be the chronically sore knee that forced him to sit out games toward the end of last season.

Mutombo, Dikembe - Dikembe has proven to be one of the more durable and productive centers in recent years. His typical numbers are 13 ppg, 11 rpg, and 3.5 blocks per game. It is his outstanding shot blocking that makes him one of the elite fantasy centers in the league. Mutombo has posted a season averages as high as 4.5 blocks per game in the past and it is not uncommon to see 6 finger waving blocks in the box score.. As of late Mutombo has been devoting much time to the Players Union trying to preserve salaries such as the 11$ million he will earn next year. His fantasy owners should hope that he squeezed some workouts in between.

Close to the Top

Ewing, Patrick - I expect Ewing to bounce back strongly from the wrist injury which forced him to miss the majority of last season although he still needs to wear a soft brace. Ewings minutes were down to 33 per game last year and he will probably be in that range again next season. He is productive enough in that time to remain a very good fantasy player, but he is not in the class of Shaq O'Neal anymore. Ewing gives his fantasy teams a particular boost in the fg% category (50%) and the FT made category (5.2 pg). The addition of Camby to the team may lower Ewings shot blocking as Camby swats a few away before Pat has a chance too. Ewings knees may benefit from a shortened season, and as the Players Union President he appears to be making sure the season will be as short as possible.

Olajuwon, Hakeem - Last year Hakeem was one of the premier fantasy players on a per minute basis although he played only 35 mpg in 47 games. What has made Olajuwan such a good fantasy player in the past is his contribution in the non-center categories of steals (1.8 spg) and assists (3.0 apg). A sign that he has slowed down is the past two years he has averaged less than 10 rpg. Olajuwon has been criticized for these performances and has been working hard on conditioning to rehabilitate from the knee surgery that slowed him last year.

Mourning, Alonzo - Mourning has shown once again he doesn't have the brains to stay out of foul trouble (3.6 fouls per game) so he can reach the upper 30's in minutes played per game and join the club of elite centers. When he stays out of foul trouble he can post very impressive stats, but last season he posted a career low in minutes per game averaging of only 33.4 and along the way posted a career low in the block category averaging only 2.2 per game. This drop in blocks knocked him out of the top 10 fantasy players; although still good, he is playing below his potential. Also reducing his fantasy value is his injury history and he already has had preseason surgery to remove bone spurs from his knee.

Ilgauskas, Zydrunis - Coming off an entire season missed due to injury, Ilgauskas played in all 82 games last season. Playing only 29 mpg he averaged 14 ppg, 9 rpg while shooting 52%. Next year should be an even stronger for Zydrunis. Ilgauskas did not get that much publicity last season and he may be a player you can pick off as a mid-round fantasy draft steal.

Good Second Centers

Olowokandi, Mike - Olowokandi will definitely get plenty of playing time as the number one overall draft pick. He averaged 22 ppg, 11.2 rpg, and 2.9 bpg at Pacific and should be able to make some contributions in these categories at the pro level. Olowokandi is not as well known as your typical number 1 pick and therefore could slip in a fantasy draft. If he performs as the Clippers anticipate, he could be a fantasy draft steal.

Bradley, Shawn - For any rotisserie style league with blocks as a category, Bradley can make significant contributions. Although last year he regressed to his injury riddled ways, in a league thin at the center position, he might be worth taking with a relatively high pick. If you do take Bradley, make sure to not add another shot blocking specialist such as Marcus Camby to your team as Bradley can take care of that category by himself.

Sabonis, Arvydas - Sabonis surprised me last year by increasing his per game playing time from 25.5 mpg to 32 mpg. He has always been one of the most productive players on a per minute basis but his physical liabilities limit his minutes and cause him to periodically miss games. As a center Sabonis can contribute in all the categories including 3 apg, 1 spg, an occasional trey, and 80% free throw shooting. These stats supplement his strong rebounding totals.

Dampier, Erick - Given the crop of NBA centers, Dampier would be a real solid fantasy second center. He showed himself to be durable in his second season as he appeared in all 82 games. Like many big men he needs to work on his FT%, but he gives quality output in the bl, reb, and ftm categories. Playing for a new contract next year, Dampier is a player with a big upside potential.

Divac, Vlade - Vlade is the type of player who can go through stretches where he is a fantasy star. To open the season last year he averaged 20 pts, 8 rebs, 4 ast, and 2 bl during the first week. Then there are other nights where he may give you practically nothing. These lapses have prevented him from being a premier fantasy player but he still remains good. He is currently one of the highly sought after free agents, but I would be cautious if he signs a cushy long term contract that may serve as incentive to take it easy on more nights next season. Note that Divac had emergency surgery for a perforated appendix in early September and there are rumors that he may play in Europe if the lockout lasts too long.

Austin, Isaac - As was shown in Miami last year, Isaac needs to start to be a productive fantasy player. With Austin being one of the most sought after free agents, chances are he will be a starter next season where he should average 16 ppg and 9 rpg, although his lack of shot blocking prevents him from being one of the better fantasy centers.

Reeves, Bryant - Reeves has averaged only 75 games in his first three seasons and the games he misses can ruin many of your fantasy weeks. Although he will average around 17 ppg and 9 rpg next season, his lack of production in the block category makes him second center material.

Geiger, Matt - Geiger's fantasy value will depend heavily on which team he signs with as a free agent. As a starter he can be a decent fantasy player but last year he spent much of his time on the bench behind the Vlade Divac. As a starter averaging 36 mpg Geiger could contribute 15 ppg, 9 rpg, and 1.5 bpg.

Williams, Brian - Like many of the 'second centers', Williams can score and rebound, but he falls short in the important shot block category. He will average around 16 ppg and 9 rpg again next season but his fantasy value is limited by getting less than 1 block per game from the center position.

Johnson, Ervin - Ervin showed flashes of good play last year with strengths in the block and rebound categories although he did not score much. Andrew Lang has not played well for the Bucks so Johnson should not have much competition for playing time next year. Not missing many games due to injury, Johnson would be a good mid to late round center acquisition for your fantasy team.

Smits, Rik - Smits has the ability to score and rebound a little but his lack of production in the other categories (ast and stl) is so woeful he could end up hurting your team if his scoring tricks you into taking him too high in a fantasy draft. He blocks a shot here and there, but not nearly what you need from your center, particularly one that is 7-4. In his 10 year career he has managed to average over 30 mpg only twice (barely) which further limits his stat output. In many leagues, owners desperate for a center often overlook his liabilities and pay too high a price for him.

Looking for Warm Bodies

Longley, Luc - Many a fantasy owner has pined for the day when Luc would wake up and start playing some ball. Limiting his fantasy value is his tendency to pick up fouls. Last season, Longley played 29 mpg which is the most amount of playing time he has averaged in one season and he posted a career high scoring avg of 11.4 ppg. As a free agent, Longley may be able to improve his fantasy value on his team where center scoring is more important than it has been with the Bulls.

Ostertag, Greg - Ostertag did not seem motivated last year after signing his lucrative long term contract and quickly found himself on the Utah bench. A top priority for the Jazz in the off season is to sign a free agent center and give Ostertag more opportunities to sit on the bench and relax. In an interview on ESPN, Malone said that he would offer a significant amount of his own contract to bring in a quality center. Tag has the potential to be a strong rebounder and shot blocker in a league with few quality big men and Utah may have no choice but to give him playing time if they strike out in the free agent market. It should be noted that Ostertag had a case of meningitis this past offseason.

Garrett, Dean - Last year Dean Garrett suffered by playing with a group of selfish players who did not deliver the ball to him often. Garrett gives strong numbers in the reb and bl categories but also gets a decent amount of steals for a big man. With the addition of Nick Van Exel look for Dean to score more than the 7 ppg he averaged last season.

Campbell, Elden - Many trade rumors had Eldon's name in them last season and that is what it will take to restore the fantasy value he had before Shaq came to town. Last season he averaged only 22 mpg (even though Shaq missed 22 games!). If playing 30+ mpg Eldon can make significant contributions in the reb, bl, and ftm categories. Reports are that the Lakers will definitely trade Eldon when the lockout is over which gives him the potential to be a draft day steal.

Seikaly, Rony - There has to be something wrong with Rony if the Magic are willing to just give him away to the Nets. Seikaly may be draft steal material next year as many fantasy managers have forgotten him since he disappeared at the end of the previous season. You might want to try to nab him late in your fantasy draft after you have confirmed he has a pulse in the preseason and hope he returns to the form he had in Orlando.

To see where these centers should go in an overall fantasy draft customized to your leagues scoring system, order the Hoops Klyce Pre-Season Player Rating Report.

 

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