YOU
NEED TO BE ON THE COURT
TO HAVE FANTASY VALUE
November 2, 1998
For a player
like Karl Malone, who has never played less than 80
games in his 13 NBA seasons, missing games because
of the lockout will be a new experience. For a
player like the injury prone Rex Chapman, who has
never player more than 80 games in his 10 NBA
seasons, missing games from the lockout may not
seem like such a big deal. An injury prone player
can be like a disease for a fantasy team, sapping
the strength it needs to contend for a
championship. Identifying the injury prone players
and dutifully avoiding them is a fundamental part
of the wise fantasy managers game plan.
Last season over
445 players made an appearance in an NBA game. Of
these players, 52 played in all 82 games. Players
who remain healthy and appear in all their games
will maximize their potential for your fantasy
team. In the words of Woody Allen, "Eighty percent
of success is showing up".
To further
illustrate this point, consider Hersey Hawkins, who
has played 10 NBA seasons and Kevin Johnson, who
has played 11 NBA seasons. Most likely Kevin
Johnson has been taken ahead of Hersey Hawkins in
the past 10 years in fantasy drafts. But Hawkins
has been far more durable playing an average of
81.3 games per season compared to 66.3 games per
season for KJ. As a result, Hawkins, despite
playing one less season, has scored more career
points (13,289) than Johnson (13,087).
A typical NBA
player over their career will average playing about
75 games of the 82 game season. Players who average
72 games or less a season should be considered as
injury prone and either avoided or devalued in a
fantasy draft. Players who average 77 games or more
are durable and should be given preference in a
fantasy draft if they are productive when on the
court.
Players who have
the potential to miss the most number of games in a
season can be determined by examining their past
'attendance' record. The table at the end of this
article lists 50 selected NBA veterans who have 4
or more years of NBA experience. The table shows
the total number of NBA seasons played, the number
of 80+ game seasons, and the average number of
games played per season for each player.
I will point
out the following players who have the tendency to
miss games and hurt your fantasy team;
1) Horace
Grant -
When Grant was with the Bulls and playing with the
ever durable Michael Jordan (ten 80+ game seasons)
he had a respectable attendance record of 78 games
per season. When Horace went to Orlando he
basically retired along with the local Floridians
and has averaged only 70 games per season. In his
11 NBA seasons he has compiled only three 80+ game
years.
2) Robert
Horry -
This guy can block shots, steal the ball, rebound,
rack up assists, and bury the trey. Horry does it
with a very low profile which would give him the
potential to be a draft steal every year were it
not for his very low pain threshold which causes
him to frequently sit out games. It's tough to
resist a player with Horry's potential, but he is
bound to make you regret acquiring him for your
team. He averages missing 12 games a season with
'injuries' and they come here and there which can
be quite aggravating for the fantasy owner stuck
him inactive in their lineup for a week.
3) Sam Cassel
- Cassel
is a player who can rack up some compelling 20
point 10 assist nights. But watching him nurse an
injury during the 3 playoff games against the Bulls
is all the evidence you need to see that even the
big games won't make Sam play with a little
discomfort. In his 5 NBA seasons, he has averaged
only 69 games played.
4) Isaiah
Rider -
In his 5 NBA seasons Rider has averaged a
respectable 75.8 games per season although he has
never had an80+ game season. Rider misses many
games as a result of suspensions for team
violations and benchings for disciplinary actions.
The days that Rider will be out are quite
unpredictable...the only thing that it predictable
is that at sometime he will be hurting your fantasy
team.
5) Derrick
Coleman - Coleman has missed huge parts of
the season from injuries as minor as a cut on his
pinky finger. He took a sprained ankle and milked
it for 71 games missed in the 1995-6 season.
Coleman is the type of player who can react to the
unpleasantness of being on a bad team by using an
injury to sit on the bench...and he is always on
bad teams. While last year he did seem to show some
attitude improvement, it was most likely related to
his upcoming free agent status. In his 8 NBA
seasons, he has never played more than 80
gamesdon't expect him to start anytime
soon.
6) Anfernee
Hardaway - Chris Mullin has long been
considered the Injury Prone Poster Child yet even
he has averaged more games played than Anfernee
Hardaway. Last year Hardaway became 'uninjured'
just long enough to play in the All Star game and
then went back on the Injured List for the
remainder of the season. With a month and a half
left in the season he announced he would not be
back...usually an injured player will threaten to
be back before the doctors want them back...not so
for quitters like Penny. Hardaway is waiting for a
season to begin which could be a turning point for
him. He can either continue to quit or he can turn
it around. If he does turn it around and play to
his potential, he could be a fantasy steal for your
team after his last two miserable seasons.
The following
players should be noted for their added fantasy
value through durability;
1) Vin Baker
- The
durability if Vin Baker can be seen by comparing
him to Chris Webber. They have both played in 5 NBA
seasons. When playing Chris Webber will put up
bigger numbers than Vin Baker and probably gets
taken higher than Baker in fantasy drafts. But
Baker has averaged 81.2 games per season compared
to only 57.6 games for Webber. As a result Baker
has scored 7,496 career points compared to 5,774
for Webber, and has 3,735 career rebounds compared
to only 2,743 for Webber.
2) Gary
Payton -
Karl Malone and John Stockton seem to have received
more publicity for their durability over the years,
but in his 8 NBA seasons Gary Payton has missed
only two games with one of these games being a
suspension for head butting Joe Wolf. Unlike A.C.
Green who has also compiled an impressive
attendance record, Payton is very productive when
on the court. This combination of production and
durability makes him worthy of being a top 5 pick
in a fantasy draft.
3) Reggie
Miller -
If you judged a player's durability by their rugged
looks you would think Shaquille O'Neal would be
more durable than Reggie Miller but it is the other
way around. The very slender Miller has averaged
over 80 games per season in his 11 year NBA career
while Shaq has averaged only 68 games in his 6 year
career. Last season the only games Miller missed
was a suspension for laying out the 7'-1", 260 lb.
Vlade Divac with his elbow.
4) Glen Rice
- One
way to stay injury free is to not take the ball to
the hoop and take the tough fouls administered in
the paint. Earlier in his career Rice was a jump
shooter but over the years has expanded his game to
include driving to the basket. In his first 8 NBA
seasons he increased his total number of free
throws each year, a strong indication he has
increasingly not relied on the jump shot. And to
his credit, despite the higher number of hard fouls
he has received in recent years, over the past 6
seasons he has averaged 81 games played.
5) Dikembe
Mutombo - Although probably never taken as
the top centers in a fantasy draft, Mutombo has
averaged more games played per season than David
Robinson, Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, Hakeem
Olajuwan, and Shaquille O'Neal. Fantasy owners who
do not recognize the value of Dikembe's attendance
record and his shot blocking can find themselves
out of first place with one of their marquee
centers riding the bench.
|
Player
|
Seasons
|
80+ Game
Seasons
|
Avg. Gms per
Season
|
|
Gary
Payton
|
8
|
8
|
81.8
|
|
Karl
Malone
|
13
|
13
|
81.6
|
|
Hersey
Hawkins
|
10
|
9
|
81.3
|
|
Vin
Baker
|
5
|
4
|
81.2
|
|
Clifford
Robinson
|
9
|
7
|
80.4
|
|
John
Stockton
|
14
|
12
|
80.4
|
|
Reggie
Miller
|
11
|
8
|
80.2
|
|
Glen
Rice
|
9
|
4
|
79.8
|
|
Jeff
Hornacek
|
12
|
9
|
79.3
|
|
Dikembe
Mutombo
|
7
|
5
|
79.0
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Seasons
|
80+ Game
Seasons
|
Avg. Gms per
Season
|
|
Shawn
Kemp
|
9
|
5
|
78.3
|
|
Grant
Hill
|
4
|
3
|
77.8
|
|
Christian
Laettner
|
6
|
3
|
77.0
|
|
Tim
Hardaway
|
8
|
5
|
76.5
|
|
Michael
Jordan
|
12
|
10
|
76.1
|
|
Isaiah
Rider
|
5
|
0
|
78.8
|
|
Scottie
Pippen
|
11
|
5
|
75.7
|
|
Detlef
Schrempf
|
13
|
7
|
75.6
|
|
Mitch
Richmond
|
10
|
4
|
75.1
|
|
Horace
Grant
|
11
|
3
|
75.1
|
|
|
Player
|
Seasons
|
80+ Game
Seasons
|
Avg. Gms per
Season
|
|
Larry
Johnson
|
7
|
4
|
74.7
|
|
Glenn
Robinson
|
4
|
3
|
74.5
|
|
Jason
Kidd
|
4
|
2
|
74.3
|
|
Rik
Smits
|
10
|
3
|
73.9
|
|
Eddie
Jones
|
4
|
2
|
73.5
|
|
Hakeem
Olajuwon
|
13
|
5
|
73.2
|
|
Dennis
Rodman
|
12
|
7
|
73.0
|
|
Rod
Strickland
|
10
|
4
|
72.7
|
|
Tom
Gugliotta
|
6
|
2
|
72.7
|
|
Charles
Barkley
|
14
|
2
|
72.7
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Seasons
|
80+ Game
Seasons
|
Avg. Gms per
Season
|
|
Patrick
Ewing
|
13
|
6
|
72.2
|
|
David
Robinson
|
9
|
6
|
70.7
|
|
Steve
Smith
|
7
|
2
|
70.3
|
|
Robert
Horry
|
6
|
1
|
70.2
|
|
Shawn
Bradley
|
5
|
1
|
69.4
|
|
Kenny
Abderson
|
7
|
2
|
69.3
|
|
Sam
Cassell
|
5
|
1
|
69.0
|
|
Alonzo
Mourning
|
6
|
0
|
68.2
|
|
Shaquille
O'Neal
|
6
|
2
|
67.7
|
|
Chris
Mullin
|
13
|
5
|
66.8
|
|
|
Player
|
Seasons
|
80+ Game
Seasons
|
Avg. Gms per
Season
|
|
Kevin
Johnson
|
11
|
2
|
66.3
|
|
Walt
Williams
|
6
|
0
|
66.3
|
|
Anfernee
Hardaway
|
5
|
2
|
63.8
|
|
Danny
Manning
|
10
|
1
|
62.5
|
|
Derrick
Coleman
|
8
|
0
|
59.4
|
|
Jamal
Mashburn
|
5
|
1
|
58.8
|
|
Chris
Webber
|
5
|
0
|
57.6
|
|
Rex
Chapman
|
10
|
0
|
57.5
|
|
LaPhonso
Ellis
|
6
|
1
|
57.2
|
|
Pervis
Ellison
|
9
|
0
|
48.3
|
|
|
|
Player
|
Seasons
|
80+ Game
Seasons
|
Avg. Gms per
Season
|
|
Kevin
Johnson
|
11
|
2
|
66.3
|
|
Walt
Williams
|
6
|
0
|
66.3
|
|
Anfernee
Hardaway
|
5
|
2
|
63.8
|
|
Danny
Manning
|
10
|
1
|
62.5
|
|
Derrick
Coleman
|
8
|
0
|
59.4
|
|
Jamal
Mashburn
|
5
|
1
|
58.8
|
|
Chris
Webber
|
5
|
0
|
57.6
|
|
Rex
Chapman
|
10
|
0
|
57.5
|
|
LaPhonso
Ellis
|
6
|
1
|
57.2
|
|
Pervis
Ellison
|
9
|
0
|
48.3
|
|