GUARD PREVIEW
November 29, 1998
Guards can be
counted on to give your fantasy teams assists,
three pointers, and steals in addition to scoring.
In the NBA guards are classified as shooting guards
or point guards. Your star fantasy guards are point
guards who score as much as a shooting guard.
Examples of great fantasy point guards are Gary
Payton, Tim Hardaway, and Allen Iverson. For a
shooting guard to be valuable in a fantasy league,
they need to be proficient in a category other than
two point field goals such as steals, free throws,
or the trey. Eddie Jones supplements his scoring
with steals and Michael Jordan and Mitch Richmond
supplement their fantasy value with significant
contributions from the free throw line.
The following is
a preview of the top fantasy guards for next season
(if there is one).
First and Second Round
Picks
Payton,
Gary -
No
matter what your stat categories or scoring system,
Payton will be one of the elite guards in your
league. Gary is one of those rare players who can
score 20 ppg and dish out 8 apg. He is also a
perennial league leader in steals, hits one or two
treys a game, and shoots over 45% from the field.
But perhaps his greatest value comes from his
durability. Over his 8 NBA season he has NEVER
played less than 81 games. But the Sonics new
coach, Paul Westphal, has stated he plans to reduce
Payton's minutes played per game slightly to avoid
burning him out. This could potentially reduce
Payton's fantasy value but we doubt the Sonics can
afford to have Payton on the bench too long,
particularly if they lose backup Greg Anthony
through free agency.
Iverson,
Allen -
The
Sixers want to allow Iverson to spend more time at
shooting guard hoping rookie Larry Hughes can man
the point part time. Don't expect a drop in
Iverson's assists though as he was effectively
playing the two guard last year. Iverson improved
his shooting percentage last year despite the
outward movement of the three point line although
his scoring dropped a bit from his rookie year.
With the departure of Derrick Coleman and the
increased time at 'shooting guard', Iverson's
scoring should be around 24 ppg next year making
him one of the most valuable fantasy guards in the
league.
Richmond,
Mitch -
In
Sacramento there was not another scoring threat to
help Richmond or a point guard to deliver him the
ball. Yet he was still a fantasy star. In
Washington Juwan Howard should take some of the
defensive pressure off Richmond and Rod Strickland
(if he re-signs) would be the best point guard he
has ever teamed with. Richmond's fantasy strengths
come from scoring with the three pointer and
averaging nearly 6 free throws a game at 86
percent.
Jones, Eddie
- Eddie Jones has star fantasy
qualities including big contributions in the trey
and steal categories and the rare ability as a
guard to average 0.7 blocks a game (he blocked 6 in
a playoff game last year). Jones averaged 'only' 36
mpg last year but with Van Exel gone that number
should approach 40 mpg, making him one of the elite
fantasy guards in the league.
Hardaway,
Tim -
Hardaway
has put together two very impressive seasons in
Miami and has established himself as one of the
premier fantasy guards. He possesses the rare
combination of outstanding point and assist totals
along with substantial numbers in the steal and
trey categories. Not bad for a player taken 14th
overall in the 1989 draft.
Jordan, Michael
-
With a
little help from the referees Jordan maintained his
fantasy value on the strength of making nearly 7
free throws per game last season. He was also
whistled for less than 2 fouls per game. But
Jordan's field goal percentage last year was a
career low for a full season since he relied more
on the jump shot rather than the energy consuming
drives to the basket. Since his fantasy value is
dependent on scoring, it will be difficult for him
to maintain his fantasy value as his minutes
decrease along with his shooting percentage. It is
doubtful that Michael will be around after the top
5 picks in any league yet he will no longer be able
to perform at that level. As sacrilegious as it may
sound, you would probably be better off avoiding
Mike at that price.
Third and Fourth Round
Picks
Marbury, Stephon
-
Marbury
is recognized as being one of the NBA's rising
young stars. He has some liabilities though that
prevent him from being considered an elite fantasy
guard. Despite scoring 18 ppg he shot only 41
percent from the field. Some may mistakenly notice
the double figure points but not all the missed
shots. And although you don't expect many rebounds
from a guard, there is no one who plays as much as
Marbury but rebounds less than his 2.8 rpg. He is a
top 50 player, but some owners may draft Marbury
higher than he is really worth.
Finley,
Michael
- Finley
benefits from being the best player on a bad team.
He plays in relative obscurity which helps him to
potentially slip into 'fantasy draft steal'
territory and his extended playing time is
completely safe. While Finley is not necessarily a
secret, not everyone may be aware of his high
fantasy value. Last year he gave contributions in
just about every category including 22 ppg, 5 apg,
5 rpg, 1.6 spg, and 1.1 treys. He played in all
games averaging 41 mpg. Getting Finley as a fourth
round pick would be a steal.
Allen, Ray
-
Allen
was the Bucks most consistent (he has not missed a
game in 2 years) and valuable player last season
and he posted increases in just about every
statistical category from his rookie season. Ray
can hit the three yet doesn't settle for only the
jumper as he averaged 4.2 free throws per game. The
only category he does not contribute in is blocks.
If You-Know-Who retires this year, expect to see
Allen taking his place on the All-Star team. Ray
should be a great fantasy player; the type many
owners might overlook in a draft (as Vin Baker was
often overlooked when he played for the
Bucks)
Christie, Doug
-
In
Toronto, Christie is a fantasy star (contributes a
little bit EVERYWHERE) but he desperately wants to
get out. If traded he could land on a team where he
is not nearly as important to the offense. Remember
his days riding the bench in New York? This makes
him a risky pick. If he remains in Toronto where he
is under contract, he would continue to rack up
numbers across the stat sheet.
Person,
Wesley -
Person
emerged in Cleveland last year with career highs in
minutes, rebounds, steals, blocks, points, and
treys. Wesley is able to make a substantial
contribution in the steal category while not
picking up many fouls. This makes him extra
valuable in leagues that consider those two
categories. Person has also been very durable
averaging over 80 games in his first four seasons.
Despite these impressive accomplishments, Person is
the type of player who might slip a bit in a
fantasy draft making him potential draft day steal
material.
Bibby, Mike
-
The
strength of Bibby's game is that he does not make a
lot of mistakes and that should enable to maintain
the starting point guard job in Vancouver unlike
his predecessor Antonio Daniels. Being on the court
is the main prerequisite to becoming a good fantasy
player! His assists totals should also benefit from
the continued development of Adbur-Rahim and Bryant
Reeves. In college, Bibby contributed in multiple
stat categories including 2.4 steals and 2 treys
per game. I feel Bibby will be the top fantasy
player among rookies powered by his ability to
contribute in the assists, steals, and three point
categories.
Fourth to Fifth Round
Picks
Miller, Reggie
-
Reggie
looks scrawny but over his 11 professional seasons
he has averaged over 80 games per season. That kind
of durability helps your fantasy team. Reggies
fantasy value comes mostly through scoring and on
any particular night he can give you a load of
treys. If treys are not a category in your league
is fantasy value is much less. On the strength of
hitting 43 percent from beyond the arc last year he
shot 48 percent from the field and also hits 87
percent of his free throws. Just don't look for too
many steal and assists from Reg.
Smith,
Steve
- Lenny
Wilkens is convinced that Steve Smith will develop
into a superstar next season but will not be a
fantasy superstar. The differences between a
fantasy superstar and a very good fantasy player
can be subtle. Smith would need to raise his steal
total from 1 pgm to 2 pgm or raise his trey total
from 1.3 pgm to 1.8 pgm to be a fantasy superstar
and it is doubtful he will accomplish that next
season. He will be a strong scorer, but those types
of players (such as Glen Rice, Juwan Howard,...)
tend to get overvalued in a fantasy leagues with
several non-scoring categories
Kidd,
Jason -
Danny
Ainge is building the Suns franchise around Kidd as
indicated by the departure of Kevin Johnson and the
trade of Steve Nash. Jason has never been known for
his shooting although he did improve from 40
percent to 42 percent last season. Kidd biggest
contributions come in the assist and steal
categories. Also, in leagues which require a
certain position allotment, Kidd can make a
substantial impact by averaging 6 rebounds per game
from the guard slot. This is better than many
forwards in the league.
Brandon,
Terrell
- Terrel
had quite a drop off in performance during his
injury filled season with the Bucks. Terrels best
categories are the assists and steal categories and
he is usually a league leader in free throw
percentage although he did not get to the line too
often last year. Because of his off year and
questions about his desire to play basketball any
more, Brandon could be considered a risky pick. If
he bounces back, this could translate into a draft
day steal.
Anderson,
Nick -
Who
knows which Nick Anderson will show up next year,
but when he is not in some funk, he can contribute
in all the categories. Nick shot 67 percent from
the free throw line last season which isn't great,
but it is a considerable improvement from his 40
percent shooting two years ago. Nick put together a
sustained period of solid play in the second half
of last year and should be able to keep it going
next year.
Cassell,
Sam -
When Sam
plays he can be a great fantasy player. The knock
against Sam is that he has a low pain threshold and
can hurt your team with how often he decides to
sit. Over his 5 NBA seasons he has averaged only 69
games played. Last season he missed 'only' 7 games,
but failed to suit up for the important playoff
games for the Nets. His 20 ppg and 8 apg are
impressive but I would be cautious due to his
injury history.
Best of the Rest
Kittles, Kerry
-
Kerry
Kittles has quietly been developing into a fantasy
star in New Jersey. His stat strengths are similar
to those of fantasy superstar Eddie Jones. Kittles
should approach the 20 ppg mark next season while
giving his usual solid contributions in the trey
and steal category. Next season will be a contract
year for Kerry, giving him plenty of motivation to
rack up the stats and approach the level of the
elite guards.
Strickland,
Rod -
Rod
Strickland has long been acknowledged as an
All-Star in fantasy leagues, a distinction that has
alluded him in the real world. Although good in a
rotisserie style scoring league, he is even better
in leagues that use equivalent points for the stat
categories since they emphasize the importance of
points, assists, and rebounds which are the
strengths of Strickland's game. In rotisserie
leagues he is just a good player since he does not
hit the three point shot. Strickland can also be a
behavioral risk as evidenced by his fight with
Tracy Murray last season.
Hardaway,
Anfernee
- Penny
is coming off a terrible year where he probably
wrecked the season of all who drafted him. He
posted the worst stats of his career shooting only
37 percent and playing in only 19 games. The year
before he played in only 59 games. I have heard
positive comments from Chuck Daly attesting to his
hard work in rehab over the offseason, but I would
avoid taking Penny highly in a draft despite his
awesome potential. He recently claimed to be more
valuable to the Magic than Kevin Garnett is to the
Wolves indicating he is not taking responsibility
for his awful play.
Rider,
Isaiah -
Rider is
listed in this group even though he will probably
miss around 8 games due to suspensions and other
behavioral problems. When playing Rider can make an
impact in the points category and gives solid
rebound numbers for a guard. He even supplemented
his fantasy value last year by averaging 3
apg.
Stoudamire,
Damon -
Stoudamire will command a large sum
of money in the free agent market despite shooting
only 36 percent from the field in his 22 games with
the Trail Blazers. His scoring also dipped to 12
ppg with Portland. Part of this drop was due to his
struggle with a sprained ankle, but on a better
team such as Portland he is not needed to score as
much. In Toronto, Stoudamire put up Tim Hardaway
type of numbers but his fantasy value won't be as
high in Portland. An area where he should still
make an impact is the assist category where he will
still average 10 apg.
Blaylock,
Mookie -
Mookie
provides a rare combination of gobs of steals with
few personal fouls to go along with it. If fouls
and steals are category in your league Mookie is
particularly valuable. Last year the minutes
Blaylock logged took a toll on him as he missed
games due to injuries. Next year may be more of the
same if the Hawks fail to solve their depth problem
through free agency. Although Mookie hit 1.3 treys
per game he shot only 27 percent from beyond the
arc hurting his teams in the field goal percent
category.