December 10, 1998
When (if) the
lockout ends, NBA General Managers will be
frantically attempting to determine the impacts of
the new Labor Agreement on how they must go about
signing free agents. The Fantasy Manager should be
evaluating which players will benefit from the
prolonged off season and which players will be
hurt.
In past NBA
seasons, it is a trend that field goal percentage,
free throw percentage, and three point percentage
are at a low in the early months of the season and
improve during the year. As a result, total points
scored generally improve throughout the season from
early month lows. This year with the extended
off-season, these shooting stats should be even
lower than usual at the beginning of the season.
This will be caused by insufficient conditioning
and by the lack of familiarity with new teammates
as a result of the large number of free agents that
will be added to many NBA teams (there are
currently around 200 free agents).
Players who rely
mostly on scoring for their Fantasy value may
initially perform below par. The following is a
list of players who 'score for a living' in the NBA
and may find the going tough initially:
- Ron
Mercer
- Michael
Jordan (if he returns)
- Glenn
Robinson
- Latrell
Sprewell (has had an even longer break than most
everybody else)
- Allan
Houston
- Juwan
Howard
- Keith Van
Horn
- Glen
Rice
- Rik
Smits
Rebounding is
higher initially as a result of all the bricks
being thrown up early in the season. Players who
'clean the glass' for a living in the NBA should be
having field days when the lockout is over. The
following is a list of players whose Fantasy value
comes mostly from rebounding
- Jayson
Williams
- Anthony
Mason
- Brian
Grant
- Charles
Barkley
- P.J.
Brown
- Clarence
Weatherspoon
- Erick
Dampier
- Brian
Williams
- Ervin
Johnson
- Danny
Fortson
Teams with fewer
free agents will be able shake off the lockout rust
quicker than teams that need to sign many free
agents. The following signed players are on teams
which will have minimal free agent impacts and
should have a head start Fantasy-wise on other
players (players who rely on scoring for Fantasy
value are not listed):
- on Utah which
has only two free agents
- Karl
Malone
- John
Stockton
- on New Jersey
which has only three free agents (one is Jayson
Williams who will re-sign)
- Kerry
Kittles
- Kendall
Gill
- on Milwaukee
which has only three free agents
- Tyrone Hill
- Ray
Allen
- Terrel
Brandon
- on Cleveland
which has only four free agents
- Zydrunis
Ilgauskas
- Shawn
Kemp
- Brevin
Knight
A significant
number of players will be free agents at the end of
the shortened season. Nothing motivates an NBA
player more than the potential to cash in on a
strong season. Rick Pitino said in his book that in
college you ask a player to run through a wall and
they will do it for you. In the NBA you ask a
player to run through a wall and explain how much
money they can earn by doing so and then they will
do it for you. The following players have free
agent status incentives for next season:
- Ray Allen
(and reportedly wants out of Milwaukee)
- Terrel
Brandon
- Karl
Malone
- Allen
Iverson
- Shaquille
O'Neal (will exercise an option in his
contract)
- Stephon
Marbury
- Antoine
Walker
- Shareef
Abdur-Rahim
- Kerry
Kittles
- Kobe
Bryant
It is not easy
for the Fantasy owner to keep up on the players
during the lockout when there aren't structured
workouts. The following are tidbits of news with
commentary on the Fantasy implications.
- Marcus Camby
has reportedly hit the weight room during the
lockout and gained much needed muscle and weight.
After two injury filled seasons he has learned the
importance of conditioning. Camby already lead the
league in blocks last season and was a decent
rebounder averaging around 7 per game. The
additional strength could make him top 50 player
material.
- Alonzo
Mourning had knee surgery which would have caused
him to miss around two months of a full season.
With the lockout, he has time to recover and won't
lose too much Fantasy value because of the
procedure. Don't forget 'Zo needs to sit out the
first game because of his pathetic fight with Larry
Johnson in last years playoffs.
- Rony Seikaly
has been working out with the Heat players. Any
news of a player working out should be looked upon
favorably although it is tough to ascertain the
rigor of the sessions and how beneficial they
are.
- Billy Hunter
has acknowledged that Kevin Garnett has been the
poster child for excessive contracts in all
discussions. KG should be motivated to show people
his deserves the big bucks. Look for him to rack up
the stats.
- The Pacers
have reportedly been working out hard together 3 or
4 times a week in workouts organized by Reggie
Miller and Mark Jackson. This should give players
on the Pacers team more Fantasy potential at the
beginning of the season. Some other teams have also
been working out together. The Spurs have also been
participating in workouts being run by Glen 'Doc'
Rivers and most of the Jazz players are meeting
daily in Salt lake City to play
- The Bucks are
concerned that Robert Trayler will gain back weight
as a result of not participating in structured
workouts. It's a good bet he will put weight back
on and he should be avoided in a Fantasy
draft.
- The Suns have
cooled on their interest of Scottie Pippen because
of concerns about two surgeries he underwent in the
off season. This is a big unknown which should
devalue Pippen in a Fantasy Draft as well.
- 35 year old
Hakeem Olajuwan has been going through daily
workouts and is reportedly in this best shape of
his life. He has been participating regularly in
the most competitive lockout basketball around at
the Westside Tennis Club in Houston. This
conditioning should give him a huge advantage at
the beginning of the season and he could be a
Fantasy steal since most owners may remember his
sub par numbers from last year.
To see what
order you should select these players in your
upcoming league draft, order the Pre-Season Player Rating
report!