PREDICTING THE FANTASY
VALUE
OF THE
ROOKIES
October 26, 1998
As the lockout
continues, judgment on the draft day success of the
NBA teams is postponed until we can get our first
glimpse of the rookies in an NBA game.
Prognostications on the fantasy value of NBA
players is largely based on past NBA season
performances, making predictions of a rookie's
fantasy value difficult and prone to error.
Typically 5 or 6
rookies are productive enough to be regular
starters on a fantasy team thorughout the season.
Last year was a lean year as only three players,
Tim Duncan, Keith Van Horn, and Brevin Knight were
worth being starters for the entire season. Ron
Mercer, Chauncy Billups, Tim Thomas, Derek
Anderson, and Bobby Jackson were other players who
were able to crack fantasy starting lineups for
parts of the season, but were generally borderline
players. Cedric Henderson and Anthony Johnson each
received substantial playing time but were not very
productive from a fantasy perspective.
Predicting which
rookies will excel is challenging. NBA Scouting
Director Marty Blake said the following of Antonio
Daniels (picked #4 overall) after the 1997 draft;
"He is a guy I was pushing when no one knew of him.
He's a very good point guard who can score, plus
he's a great kid. They will love him in Vancouver."
Daniels went on to have a very unproductive fantasy
season, showing that even the experts can miss in
their analysis of rookies.
I use the
following general rules for judging the fantasy
potential of rookies:
- Rookies who
play the power position have more difficulty
adjusting to the NBA because it takes more
strength than they have developed for their age.
That is why Marcus Camby and Tony Battie
struggled their first year while the small but
quick Brevin Knight succeeded.
- Players with
four years of college experience can adapt more
easily to the NBA game. Tim Duncan benefited
from four years while a player like Tim Thomas
would have made a much bigger impact had he
stayed at Villanova a couple more years.
- Players from
smaller colleges may not have seen the level of
competition necessary to prepare them for the
transition to the NBA. Antonio Daniels is an
example. This makes me suspicious of Olowokandi
from this years draft.
- Beware of
rookies described as having a huge 'upside
potential'. That is another way of saying that
they may not be able to contribute to your
fantasy team for perhaps their entire rookie
year. Examples from this years draft are Antawn
Jamison and Larry Hughes.
- Usually the
most productive players are taken in the top 10
picks, although there are always
exceptions!
With this being
said, I will attempt to evaluate the fantasy
potential of the first 13 picks of the 1998
draft.
1 - Michael
Olowokandi, L.A. Clippers
Olowokandi tore
up the Big West Conference and went from a no name
to the #1 overall draft pick in a short time, but
he did not perform against top notch competition on
a regular basis. This lack of experience makes me
reluctant to get overly excited about his ability
to adapt to playing the NBA center position.
Although he averaged 22 ppg, 11.2 rpg, and 2.9 bpg
at Pacific, it only earned him an Honorable Mention
on the All-American team. Chances are that Isaac
Austin will sign with another team giving
Olowokandi all the playing time he needs to develop
and become a viable fantasy player, but he won't be
like a Tim Duncan, and may be taken higher than he
is worth in a fantasy draft by owners enthralled by
his #1 draft pick status.
2 - Mike Bibby,
Vancouver
The strength of
Bibby's game is that he does not make a lot of
mistakes and that should enable to maintain the
starting point guard job in Vancouver unlike his
predecessor Antonio Daniels. Being on the court is
the main prerequisite to becoming a good fantasy
player! His assists totals should also benefit from
the continued development of Adbur-Rahim and Bryant
Reeves. In college, Bibby contributed in multiple
stat categories including 2.4 steals and 2 treys
per game. I feel Bibby will be the top fantasy
player among rookies powered by his ability to
contribute in the assists, steals, and three point
categories.
3 - Raef LaFrentz,
Denver
LaFrentz should
be a solid rookie fantasy performer having spent 4
yrs in a big time college program. In Denver, where
the talent level was as thin as the air last
season, LaFrentz should be able to step in and play
all the minutes he can handle. In college he
averaged 20 ppg while shooting a high field goal
percentage and averaged 10 rpg. He should make
contributions at the professional level in these
categories as well. LaFrentz is a player who
certainly won't hurt your fantasy team.
4 - Antawn Jamison,
Golden State
Despite the high
draft pick used to select Jamison, there are some
serious questions about which NBA position he will
play. Jamison may have the 'Clarence Weatherspoon
syndrome' - lacking the size to play power forward
while not having the offensive skills to play small
forward. Further obstacles to Jamison's fantasy
value development include stiff competition from
Jason Caffey, Donyell Marshall, and Clarence
Weatherspoon at the forward position. On the flip
side, there are some who feel that Antawn has the
quickness to get his own shot in the pro's. His 20+
college scoring average showed he could score
against top notch collegiate competition. Jamison's
fantasy potential would go up if the Warriors shed
Caffey and Spoon through free agency, but I would
still be reluctant to draft Jamison to my fantasy
team because of his positional questions.
5 - Vince Carter,
Toronto
Carter will be
expected to help Toronto with their scoring (which
is always a plus for a fantasy player's value), and
if Doug Christie's trade wish is granted, there
will be even more pressure for him to score. Carter
has been compared to Jerry Stackhouse but that is
unfair since Vince can shoot - as a junior he lead
the ACC in FG% at 59% which is very impressive
considering he played shooting guard and took of
numbers of three point shots. Carter can score
inside and he has shown improvement with his free
throw shooting which is important for his fantasy
value since his style of play should bring him to
the line often.
6 - Robert Traylor,
Milwaukee
For a big man
Traylor has remarkably good passing skills...but
then again so does Oliver Miller. The fear with
Tractor is that he hit the Jenny Craig diet just
for the draft (he lost 30 lbs from his playing
weight at Michigan) and will put weight back on
right away as the lockout has allowed him many
additional visits to McDonald's. Although he does
not have power forward height, he does have power
forward size and should be able to rebound at the
pro level (he averaged 10 rpg in college). Going
against him is that in Milwaukee Tyrone Hill is the
starting PF, so Traylor may not be a viable fantasy
player right away.
7 - Jason Williams,
Sacramento
The last short
Caucasian to be taken as a top 7 draft pick was
Bobby Hurley taken #7 by the Kings in 1993. The
Kings are hoping for better luck this time.
Sacramento traded shooting guard Mitch Richmond for
PF Chris Webber and now need backcourt help more
than ever. Williams will be given the opportunity
to fill that need. He is a wildcard though as he
has a history of off court drug and discipline
problems in his 2 years of college experience. In
his last year he averaged 17 ppg, 6.7 apg, and 2.7
steals per game. I feel he has the potential to be
a legitimate fantasy player since he will be able
to contribute in the assist, steal, trey, and ft%
categories and he should not have any serious
threats to his starting job. Given his relatively
low profile, he could be a draft day steal for your
fantasy team.
8 - Larry Hughes,
Philadelphia
Hughes was
drafted by the Sixers over Paul Pierce because of
his ball handling ability as well as his scoring
potential. As a freshman in college he averaged
over 20 ppg but his shooting of 41.5% FG, 29% 3PT,
and 69% FT were not that impressive. Philly would
like to give Hughes minutes at point guard to free
up Iverson to play off the ball. This could help
his fantasy value if he is able to pick up assists
in addition to his anticipated scoring. Although he
has great potential, with only 1 year of college
experience, it may be a year or two before he
becomes a regular fantasy starter.
9 - Dirk Nowitzki,
Dallas
My instincts
dictate that I should not get to excited about this
European player having watched many foreign stars
sit on the bench in the NBA. Dirk is a young player
who is coming to the NBA a year or two earlier than
he anticipated and may not have the strength yet to
earn regular playing time. He does reportedly have
three point range but he averaged only 6 rpg in
Europe despite being 6-10...don't expect him to get
more in the NBA. Similar to the other Europeans
players, his defensive is weak which does not bode
well for him in the stl and blk categories.
10 - Paul Pierce,
Boston
Paul Pierce's
fall to the number 10 spot in the NBA draft was one
of the most peculiar aspects of the 1998 draft. He
had been projected to go in the top 5 on the
strength of his offensive skills (20.5 ppg and
51.3% FG). Pierce should start for the Celtics in
place of Walter McCarty at SF and be a more
valuable fantasy player than your typical #10 draft
pick. I am somewhat concerned that 9 teams passed
on Pierce for reasons that aren't apparent to the
rest of the basketball world...if Pierce is out of
shape, he could find himself in Pitino's dog house.
Last year the Celtic player rotations where brutal
for fantasy owners as only Antoine Walker was
certain of his playing time on any given day. Also,
Pierce's 34.5% three point shooting in college
suggests he may not be ready to hit the pro three
yet. This would hurt his fantasy value since he
won't be a great rebounder in the pros.
11 - Bonzi Wells,
Detroit
Generally
players drafted beyond pick number 10 don't become
viable fantasy players in their rookie year but
Wells has an attribute that makes him special - he
led the NCAA in steals. Last season another
mid-first round pick, Brevin Knight, led the NBA in
steals for a considerable part of the season making
him a productive fantasy player. There may be
plenty of opportunities for Bonzi to play in
Detroit; Jerry Stackhouse may not re-sign, the
aging Joe Dumars should continue to miss games due
to injuries, and Lindsay Hunter is a notorious
brick layer (career 38.4% field goal shooting!) who
could yield playing time. Wells has good size at
6'-5" and showed he could score in college.
12 - Michael Doleac,
Orlando
Last year Doleac
received considerable exposure as a result of his
trek to the NCAA tournament finals where he
averaged 19.5 pg and 7.5 rpg. His associated name
recognition may cause some fantasy owners to value
him more than he is worth. Doleac will struggle to
be a productive fantasy player since he is slow and
cannot block shots. Even when drafted, analysts
projected him as a career backup center. How often
have you heard a player's potential on draft night
is only to be a backup? To his credit, he can hit
an open jump shot but you need to do more than that
to be a valuable fantasy player. Also, Ike Austin
may very well end up in Orlando and claim the
majority of minutes at center.
13 - Keon Clark,
Orlando
Keon is said to
be athletic. I am always suspicious of basketball
ball players described as 'athletic'. David Benoit
has always been descried as 'athletic'...see my
point? To his credit though, Clark can block shots
but competition from fellow rookie Doleac should
prevent him from getting regular playing
time.
In conclusion,
if I were to list the seven rookie players who I
think will spent the most amount of time as a
fantasy starter in the upcoming year they would
be:
- 1) Mike
Bibby
- 2) Raef
LaFrentz
- 3) Michael
Olowokandi
- 4) Jason
Williams
- 5) Vince
Carter
- 6) Bonzi
Wells (dark horse prediction)
- 7) Paul
Pierce