January 9, 1999
Now that the
lockout has ended, NBA teams will need to choose
from among 200 free agents to fill their rosters.
During this process there will be many trades as 6
months of work gets crammed into a three week
period. As a result the fantasy value of many
players will be fluctuating.
The frantic (and
exciting) period of free agent signings and trades
will begin on January 18th with the first day of
the shortened season scheduled for February 5th.
Don't be surprised if not all the of the free
agents are signed by the beginning of the
season.
The fantasy
value of the marquee free agents such as Scottie
Pippen, Antonio McDyess, Damon Stoudamire, and Tom
Gugliotta will not be as volatile as the rank and
file players (a term used often in recent months)
since the stars will get their stats no matter
where they play. If a star free agent signs with
another team the biggest fantasy value impact would
be of the player the star is sending to the bench.
For example, if Tom Gugliotta signed with the
Nuggets (Gugs likes the Denver area) then the
fantasy potential of Danny Fortson would take a hit
since he would not play as much. As your hear of
the big free agent signings you need to ask
yourself who will hit the pine as a result.
Also, when the
star free agent leaves a team, the player who
assumes a starting role in his place will have an
increase in fantasy value. For example, if Scottie
Pippen signs with the Phoenix Suns, Toni Kukoc
would play a more important role for the
Bulls.
If your fantasy
draft is early and not many transactions have been
made it is best to assume a player is remaining
with his current team when evaluating fantasy
potential. Chances are a significant number of
player will be re-signing since the collective
bargaining agreement encourages it and since teams
don't want to make too many changes with a short
training camp and season.
The 50 game
abbreviated season will consist of four games per
week (usually there are three or four games a week)
with occasionally games on three consecutive
nights. This hectic pace along with the shortened
training camp will make the early season games look
like pre-season games. Teams will be forced to a
deeper rotation which will initially dilute the
fantasy value of the star players while they regain
their stamina.
From a fantasy
perspective, it may lead to some disappointing
early season performances from the stud players who
may not be in condition to play their usual 38-40
minutes per game. Some of the older players who
were free agents may have the toughest transition
since they may not have worked out hard during the
lockout for fear of injury. The fantasy owner might
want to use this period as an opportunity to trade
for a star player who will be playing more in a few
weeks when they have their conditioning back.
Towards the end
of the shortened season teams will tighten their
rotation taking away the fantasy value of some of
the marginal players who initially received more
time than usual. These are the players you may want
to package up for a star player earlier in the
season.
Knowing which
players stayed in shape during the lockout will be
valuable information when determining fantasy
potential. The fact that Shawn Kemp and Patrick
Ewing are over weight has been well publicized
since they participated in the December charity
game, but there will be many other players that
show up out of shape as well. When teams go into a
three consecutive night stretch some of these
players may need to miss a substantial portion of
the third game or even sit out all together. By
following training camp the out of shape players
can be identified.
A lack of
conditioning along with the intense schedule will
create numerous injuries which will lead to missed
games. As a result players who are usually reserves
may have several periods with a temporarily high
fantasy value as they start for the injured player.
The fantasy owner in need of a player should look
for these players since they sometimes end up as
the permanent starter. This is how Alan Henderson
won the starting role from Christian Laettner in
Atlanta last season.
The NBA is
planning on scheduling mostly inner-conference
games. Traditionally the Western Conference
concentrates less on defense and subsequently have
higher scoring games. The inner conference play
will tend to give players in the Western Conference
a higher fantasy value compared to players in the
Eastern Conference.
There will be
minimal impacts from players who defected to the
European leagues during the lockout. Vlade Divac
will return in time for the season and the loss of
Vinny Del Negro to the Italian league for a couple
games will have a minimal impact. Until Del Negro
returns though it will give an opportunity for
Antonio Daniels to play more and see if he can
improve from his rookie season.
The loss of
Michael Olowokandi for the first couple weeks will
be the biggest impact from the European leagues.
Lorenzen Wright will play center and have a greater
fantasy value than usual until Olowokandi returns.
Olowokandi's absence might also prompt the Clippers
to sign Vlade Divac who wishes to return to the Los
Angeles area. This would bring down 'Kandi's
fantasy potential even more.
Scottie Pippen's
agent has made comments suggesting Pippen will
re-sign with Chicago. Pippen's fantasy value would
be greatest in Chicago where there are few scoring
threats other than Michael Jordan who may not
return.