FANTASY BASKETBALL
STATISTICS
101
October 7, 1998
A typical
fantasy basketball league has 12 teams with 10
starting players on each team. To get an idea of
what the average stats for a player active on a
starting fantasy roster would be I analyzed the
statistics of the 120 players who averaged the most
minutes played per game last season (hey ... what
else are you going to do during The Lockout ...
watch baseball? ... I don't think so!).
The averages for
8 common statistical categories are shown in the
table below. Also, to determine how the players
stats were distributed above and below the averages
I found the standard deviation of the 120 players
for each stat category. A 'bell' shaped
distribution would predict that 68% of the players
would fall within one standard deviation of the
average. Hang with me now ... the goal will be to
determine who the fantasy basketball studs are ...
not to put you to sleep!
|
CATEGORY
|
AVG PER
GAME
|
STND
DEV
|
STND
DEV/AVG
|
|
Points
|
15.2
|
4.60
|
0.30
|
|
Rebounds
|
6.20
|
2.80
|
0.45
|
|
Assists
|
3.40
|
2.17
|
0.64
|
|
Steals
|
1.18
|
0.47
|
0.40
|
|
Blocks
|
0.75
|
0.73
|
0.97
|
|
Treys
|
0.57
|
0.64
|
1.12
|
|
Free
Throws
|
3.20
|
1.40
|
0.44
|
|
FG%
|
46.1%
|
4.0%
|
0.09
|
By taking the
standard deviation for a stat category and dividing
it by the average you can see which of the stat
categories have a wider distribution of values (the
greater the value, the greater the distribution).
The two categories with the greatest distribution
are the three pointer and the block. They also
happen to be the least frequently occurring stats.
For the fantasy basketball owner, it means it is
easier to find a single player who can have an
impact in that category than in others.
Contributing to the high standard deviation of the
trey is the fact that 32 of the 120 players in the
group did not bury a trey all year. This is what
makes the players who do hit from long range more
valuable (this is more so in a rotisserie style
league). On the other hand, the field goal
percentage category has the least distribution
among the players making it more difficult to trade
for a player to make an impact there (Shaq being on
a the few who can single handily make an impact for
you in FG%).
Theoretically no
player should be exceed three standard deviations
of the average for a stat category. This is the
case for points, steals, treys, and field goal
percentage where all per game averages were below
the three standard deviations from the average
mark. This was not the case in the other four
categories. For rebounds, Dennis Rodman exceeded
14.56 rpg (three standard deviations from the
average) mark. For assists, Rod strickland exceeded
the 9.9 apg assist mark. For free throws made, Karl
Malone exceeded the 7.36 ftpg mark. For blocks,
Marcus Camby, Dikembe Mutombo, and Theo Ratliff
exceeded the 2.93 bpg mark. Of special note was
Camby's 3.65 bpg average which was FOUR standard
deviations above the average. In other words, Camby
dominated the block category more than any player
dominated any other category and that includes
Jordan and his scoring.
While Marcus
Camby dominated the block category, overall, he was
above average in only 2 of the 8 categories. As the
manager of a fantasy basketball team, you are not
necessarily interested in the players who excel in
a particular category, you want the well-rounded
players who will lead your team to first place. Of
the 120 players in the group, two exceeded the
average in 7 of the 8 categories. They are Karl
Malone (below average in only treys) and Chris
Webber (below average in only free throws). The
following seven players exceeded the average in 6
of the 8 categories . Allen Iverson, Tom Gugliotta,
Scottie Pippen, Kevin Garnett, Hakeem Olajuwan,
Anfernee Hardaway, and Detlef Schrempf. Jordan was
above average in 5 of the categories.
In the same
manner the fantasy stiffs can be identified.
Calbert Cheany and Joe Smith managed to be in the
top 120 in minutes played per game but were below
average in all 8 of the categories investigated. By
the way OnHoops.com readers, LJ was below average
in 6 of the 8 categories! That's kind of stiff
too.
Below is a table
with the 120 players used for this investigation
along with the number of categories in which they
exceeded the group average. This does not
necessarily identify your top fantasy players since
the analysis does not take into account the player
who will be good when he plays but kills your team
by missing games (you know ... Anfernee Hardaway,
Charles Barkley, ... these guys).
(PLAYERS
1-10)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
malone,karl
|
7
|
|
webber,chris
|
7
|
|
olajuwon,hakeem
|
6
|
|
garnett,kevin
|
6
|
|
gugliotta,tom
|
6
|
|
schrempf,detlef
|
6
|
|
hardaway,anferne
|
6
|
|
iverson,allen
|
6
|
|
pippen,scottie
|
6
|
|
o'neal,shaquille
|
5
|
|
|
(PLAYERS
11-20)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
duncan,tim
|
5
|
|
ewing,patrick
|
5
|
|
mourning,alonzo
|
5
|
|
howard,juwan
|
5
|
|
baker,vin
|
5
|
|
robinson,david
|
5
|
|
kemp,shawn
|
5
|
|
hill,grant
|
5
|
|
abdur-rahim,shar
|
5
|
|
jordan,michael
|
5
|
|
(PLAYERS
21-30)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
sabonis,arvydas
|
5
|
|
brandon,terrell
|
5
|
|
sprewell,latrell
|
5
|
|
hornacek,jeff
|
5
|
|
marshall,donyell
|
5
|
|
finley,michael
|
5
|
|
walker,antoine
|
5
|
|
marbury,stephon
|
5
|
|
stoudamire,damon
|
5
|
|
christie,doug
|
5
|
|
|
(PLAYERS
31-40)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
allen,ray
|
5
|
|
payton,gary
|
5
|
|
richmond,mitch
|
5
|
|
smits,rik
|
4
|
|
reeves,bryant
|
4
|
|
mcdyess,antonio
|
4
|
|
mutombo,dikembe
|
4
|
|
mason,anthony
|
4
|
|
outlaw,charles
|
4
|
|
laettner,christian
|
4
|
|
(PLAYERS
41-50)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
strickland,rod
|
4
|
|
cassell,sam
|
4
|
|
horry,robert
|
4
|
|
coleman,derrick
|
4
|
|
robinson,glenn
|
4
|
|
stackhouse,jerry
|
4
|
|
stockton,john
|
4
|
|
murray,lamond
|
4
|
|
kidd,jason
|
4
|
|
vanhorn,keith
|
4
|
|
|
(PLAYERS
51-60)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
smith,steve
|
4
|
|
jones,eddie
|
4
|
|
hardaway,tim
|
4
|
|
miller,reggie
|
4
|
|
williamson,corli
|
3
|
|
seikaly,rony
|
3
|
|
williams,jayson
|
3
|
|
dampier,erick
|
3
|
|
ratliff,theo
|
3
|
|
brown,p.j.
|
3
|
|
(PLAYERS
61-70)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
ilgauskas,zydrun
|
3
|
|
willis,kevin
|
3
|
|
williams,brian
|
3
|
|
henderson,alan
|
3
|
|
wallace,rasheed
|
3
|
|
barkley,charles
|
3
|
|
owens,billy
|
3
|
|
wesley,david
|
3
|
|
jackson,jimmy
|
3
|
|
anderson,kenny
|
3
|
|
|
(PLAYERS
71-80)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
houston,allan
|
3
|
|
fox,rick
|
3
|
|
blaylock,mookie
|
3
|
|
anderson,nick
|
3
|
|
peeler,anthony
|
3
|
|
kittles,kerry
|
3
|
|
rice,glen
|
3
|
|
austin,isaac
|
2
|
|
camby,marcus
|
2
|
|
grant,horace
|
2
|
|
(PLAYERS
81-90)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
grant,brian
|
2
|
|
thorpe,otis
|
2
|
|
hill,tyrone
|
2
|
|
weatherspoon,cla
|
2
|
|
knight,brevin
|
2
|
|
wright,lorenzen
|
2
|
|
oakley,charles
|
2
|
|
garrett,dean
|
2
|
|
wallace,john
|
2
|
|
johnson,avery
|
2
|
|
|
(PLAYERS
91-100)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
mercer,ron
|
2
|
|
johnson,larry
|
2
|
|
jackson,bobby
|
2
|
|
gill,kendall
|
2
|
|
robinson,cliff
|
2
|
|
corbin,tyrone
|
2
|
|
phills,bobby
|
2
|
|
ellis,laphonso
|
2
|
|
mashburn,jamal
|
2
|
|
kukoc,toni
|
2
|
|
(PLAYERS
101-110)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
rogers,rodney
|
2
|
|
hunter,lindsey
|
2
|
|
hawkins,hersey
|
2
|
|
chapman,rex
|
2
|
|
rider,isaiah
|
2
|
|
vanexel,nick
|
2
|
|
dumars,joe
|
2
|
|
person,wesley
|
2
|
|
longley,luc
|
1
|
|
henderson,cedric
|
1
|
|
|
(PLAYERS
111-120)
|
PLAYER
|
Number of
Categories
Above Average
|
|
green,a.c.
|
1
|
|
rodman,dennis
|
1
|
|
delnegro,vinny
|
1
|
|
newman,johnny
|
1
|
|
jackson,mark
|
1
|
|
johnson,anthony
|
1
|
|
davis,hubert
|
1
|
|
lenard,voshon
|
1
|
|
smith,joe
|
0
|
|
cheaney,calbert
|
0
|
|
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