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October, 2004 Preseason Notes
The following were emails that were sent to subscribers of the preseason update package.  Potential new customers can use this to get a feel for the typical content.

November 2 PRESEASON NOTES

Indiana placed Jermaine O'Neal (pain in left foot), Jeff Foster (arthroscopic surgery right hip), and Anthony Johnson (broken bone right hand) on the IR. I was not expecting O’Neal to be put on the IR although I was aware of his foot issue. This leaves Indiana without their starting center and power forward for at least 5 games. Scott Pollard may have some use in deep leagues in the beginning of the season for teams needing rebounds and possibly Austin Croshere. Jamaal Tinsley should play a healthy amount of minutes with his backup out.

The LA Lakers placed Devean George (ankle surgery) on IR. While he is out Caron Butler will have less competition for playing time.

New Jersey placed Jason Kidd on IR. There is a range in reported return dates for him from early December until January. We will see soon what the Nets plan to do in the meantime at PG. Those with Kidd stashed on their fantasy IL might want to pick up the interim Nets PG.

Speaking of injured point guards, the Jazz placed their starter, Carlos Arroyo, and his backup, Raul Lopez on the IL. Keith McLeod who had a preseason A/TO of .85 is a point guard currently on their roster.

Philadelphia placed Glenn Robinson on the IL reportedly with tendinitis in the left ankle. It is my suspicion he may be there until he is traded which is at this point is his upside. In the meantime Andre Iguodala gets another boost in fantasy value.

Toronto placed Alvin Williams on the IL. This should lock in some solid playing time for Rafer Alston early on.

There is uncertainty about Shaq playing in the first game because of his strained hamstring.

11/1 PRESEASON NOTES

It was announced unexpectedly that Devin Harris would start for the Mavericks at point guard with Jason Terry becoming the sixth man. This implies that Jerry Stackhouse, when healthy, is the seventh man. This news comes as a disappointment for those who drafted Jason Terry and a bonus for those who took Devin Harris. If nobody took Devin Harris in your league, go get him now. Among Harris’ preseason accomplishments was leading the league in steals.

Chris Kaman will miss the first couple weeks of the season with a sprained ankle. Chris Wilcox would stand for a couple extra minutes as a result and a dark horse sleeper would be Mikki Moore (should he make the team) who played in all 8 preseason games for the Clippers.

Brendan Haywood will miss the first three games of the season due to a suspension. Kwame Brown and Etan Thomas are other Wizards frontcourt players to potentially miss the beginning of the season with injuries. Not sure who will be picking up the slack in the front court but perhaps Michael Ruffin and Samaki Walker. Don’t think they will have much fantasy value though.

10/30 PRESEASON NOTES

Alonzo Mourning returned to play in a preseason game. While he exceeded expectations with 12 pts, 5 reb in 19 mins (he also had 8 TO!), I would recommend against even taking a flyer on him in a draft. Some may have used a late round pick on the other Nets center, Jason Collins, and Mourning may serve to remove all fantasy potential from Collins. I am not saying there is no shot that Mourning has value, but I would not take the risk in less the price is really small.

Speaking of the Nets, Rodney Buford had a game with 20 pts and 4 treys in 35 minutes while his competition for playing time, Ron Mercer, sat out. If one of these two emerges with value it will be Buford since he can hit the trey and get more steals than Mercer. He may be worth taking a flyer on particularly if you feel your team needs the three point category bolstered.

X-rays on the ankle Carlos Arroyo sprained were negative and the Jazz hope he will be ready for the season opener.

Interestingly, the Suns opted against picking up their option for next year on Joe Johnson or to give him an extension. It appears Joe Johnson will start but this is a sign that Quentin Richardson is the man in the future. So why don’t the Suns start Richardson now? Johnson may get traded sometime during the season. This would likely benefit the fantasy value of both players.

At this time Marquis Daniels should be considered day to day. When he does return he will start on the bench and have to work his way into the starting lineup which I believe he will accomplish.

It appears that Kenny Thomas’ scratched cornea is a minor injury (not that I would ever want one) and I assume he will be ready to start the season.

Matt Harpring has had a strong preseason for the Jazz and appears ready to bounce back from a tough season. He has shot over 50% FG and averaged 7 rpg, and 1.4 spg.

I read that Jerry Sloan is unhappy with Mehmet Okur’s conditioning. This is a very bad piece of news for Okur who has shot less than 40% in the preseason. Jarron Collins may begin the season as the starter. Okur had sleeper potential after signing a big contract in the offseason but appears to have some challenges ahead of him.

Stromile Swift showed the other night what he could do with playing time getting 24 pts, 7 reb, and 4 bl in 29 min. Swift is a good producer on a per minutes basis. He is currently playing with a one year contract. His teammate Earl Watson showed his potential when Jason Williams is out with 12 pts and 12 ast. Watson is a consideration in leagues with over 160 players.

Tim Thomas had a game with 23 pts in 20 minutes. He can tease fantasy managers like this but will settle into his mediocre production during the season.

Keep an eye on rookie Kevin Martin in Sacramento. With an injury slowing Doug Christie and the lack of back court depth on the Kings, he may get some opportunities to play. Note that Christie will likely be ready to start the season but will need to get into shape.

Devin Harris had another performance that was impressive with 24 pts (12-15 FT) in 41 minutes. Additionally, Charles Barkely turned up the heat on the Harris bandwagon by predicting he would be the rookie of the year. While he may not be that high on your depth chart in anticipation of a reduced role on a healthy Mavs roster, I could not argue with the decision to elevate him a few rounds and take a chance.

Luke Walton has begun to play. He had been slowed by a sprained ankle.

Maciej Lampe had a double double for the Suns. With the foul prone Jake Voskuhl at the top of the Suns center depth chart, there may be an opportunity for the young Lampe to emerge this season if he has got some game.

10/31 PRESEASON NOTES

Robert Trayler dropped 30 pts, 11 reb, and 3 bl on the Toronto Rapters. This is more of a sign of the poor Raptors interior defense than the abilities of the reserve Traylor. Those in leagues with daily transactions and the time to micromanage their teams might want to make sure their front court players going against the Raptors are activated.

Reggie Miller broke his hand and will be out 4-6 weeks. This is good news for those who have Stephen Jackson on their team.

Jermaine O’Neal has a strained ligament in his foot. It is not clear if this will prevent him from starting the season but this is not good news for a player who has ongoing issues with his back.

Eddie Griffin’s preseason has been far better than expected with 8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and 1.7 bpg. However he is shooting only 34% FG.

David Wesley played in his first preseason game and may represent the end of rookie JR Smith’s hopes for fantasy value.

Tony Parker broke off contract talks with the Spurs insuring that he will have that new contract incentive throughout the season!

Luke Ridnour appears to have won the starting PG position for the Seattle Supersonics and should be added to the sleeper list. In his recent preseason game he had 14 pts, 6 ast, and 2 steals in 36 min.

 

Provided to HoopsKlyce.com by Sandlotshrink.com

2004 NBA Fantasy Sleepers

by Bob Radl, Staff Writer

NBA training camps opened this past week. Even a casual observer of the NBA is aware of the top names in the sport. The staff at the Sandlot Shrink would like to present our annual group of sleepers and some additional long shot sleepers. These are players that you should target for the middle or late rounds of the draft. Fantasy drafts are won in the middle and late rounds. Here are a few names to consider. The players are listed in alphabetical order at each position.

CENTER

1. Mark Blount, Boston, He came on strong at the end of thee last campaign when he averaged 10.9 boards, 14.1 points and over 60% from the field in the last 20 games of the 2003-2004 season. Blount is also a good one on one defender.

2. Eddie Curry, Chicago, Curry appears to finally have committed himself to some strenuous off-season conditioning. He participated in the Bulls voluntary workouts for the first time this off-season. Curry has very good offensive moves in the low post, but needs to improve his defensive skills. If motivated, he could easily become a top-flight center.

2. Samuel Dalembert, Philadelphia, He still has a raw offensive game that needs to be developed. He finally earned decent minutes over the last ten games when he averaged 12.o points, 12.3 rebounds and 3.9 blocks. He could be a cheaper version of Ben Wallace. He makes for a nice pick in dynasty leagues.

3. Adonal Foyle, Golden State, Foyle received a very nice contract from the warriors who love his defensive skills. He should see major minutes with the departure of Erick Dampier to Dallas. Foyle will not score much but will contribute very well in boards and blocks.

4. Nzar Mohammed, New York, Mohammed has the inside track on the center slot in the Big Apple. He signed a huge contract with the Knicks. He could post some double doubles and be a cheap source of boards in deeper leagues. He will need to hold off Vin Baker at center.

5. Mehmet Okur, Utah, He played very little last year in Motown under Larry Brown. Okur could blossom this season in Utah as he is slated to start. He has all of the qualities of a European center, good passer, mobile and a nice touch out to 15 feet. He is also a good offensive rebounder.

FORWARD

1. Chris Bosh, Toronto, Bosh is only 20 years old as he enters his second season with the Raptors. The arrival of rookie center Rafael Arauju will allow Bosh to play at his more natural position of PF. He still needs to get bigger and stronger, but could be a real star in a few years. He is nice player to stash away in a dynasty league. Bosh may also qualify for center in some leagues.

2. Kwame Brown, Washington, Some NBA scribes have considered Kwame to be a major bust during his short three stint in the league. He is only 22 years old with tons of talent. He has shown steady improvement in each of his three seasons. He could easily bump his scoring average up to close to 14 or 15 points per game this year. Brown will miss the start of the season due to a broken bone in his foot.

3. Al Harrington, Atlanta, Harrington was stuck on the bench for too long in Indiana. He will have a chance to shine in Atlanta where he will be one of the go to guys along with Antoine Walker. He did start 15 games for the Pacers last season and averaged 14.6 points, 6.7 boards, 2.1 assists and 1.3 steals. He will contribute in most categories for the hawks.

4. Antawn Jamison, Washington, Jamison was relegated to the 6th man role in Dallas last year. He is once again reunited with Gilbert Arenas who was his running mate during his very productive time in Golden State. He will one of the focal points of the Wizards offense and could easily average over 20 points a game.

5. Troy Murphy, Golden State, Murphy's 2003-2004 campaign was more or less lost due to injury. He had a breakout year the season before. Some fantasy managers may have forgotten about him. He could average close to ten boards per game and has some offensive upside to his game.

6. Gerald Wallace, Charlotte, Wallace appears to be the best offensive threat on the Bobcats expansion roster. He never received much playing time in Sacramento. He never averaged more than 12 minutes per game during his three years in Sacramento. No one really knows what he can as a full time player. Wallace is only 22 years old and was once considered to be the best high school basketball player in the country.

GUARDS

1. Rafer Alston, Toronto, Alston signed with the Raptors in the off-season to become their staring point guard. He averaged 12.2 points, 5.7 assists and 1.7 steals while hitting 58 treys while starting 28 games for the Heat last year. Questions still exist about his durability for an entire NBA season.

2. Kenny Anderson, Atlanta, The veteran Anderson is the favorite to win the starting PG job in Atlanta. He could be a nice source of assists late in your draft as long as he can remain healthy and hold onto the job.

3. Marquis Daniels, Dallas, Daniels played extremely well late last years for the Mavs. He averaged 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.7 steals in 15 starts last year. Daniels did not play as well as expected during this year's summer league play. He also is faced with a long jam at the guard and small forward slots in Dallas. Daniels may qualify for a forward position in many leagues also. He does make for an excellent keeper league pick.

4. Willie Green, Philadelphia, Green inherited the SG slot in Philadelphia over the summer when the Sixers moved Eric Snow to the Cavaliers. Green is a real gunner and a bit small for the off-guard.

5. Kirk Hinrich, Chicago, Hinrich came out of the gates slow last year due to injury and illness. He showed vast improvement to become one of the best young players on the Bulls roster by the end of the season. He averaged 13.4 points, 7.7 assists and 1.6 steals during the second half of the 2003-2004 season.

Listed below are an additional group of players that would have to be considered "long shots" for this year in terms of fantasy potential. Most of these players will be drafted in leagues where there are at least 150 to 200 players drafted. Most NBA players need to average 25 to 30 minutes per game to have viable fantasy value. These players are also listed in alphabetical order only.

1. Speedy Claxton, Golden State, Claxton showed his stuff in the second half of last year when he averaged 13.6 points and 5.3 assists in 29 starts. Questions about his durability still linger as the Warriors signed Derek Fisher in the off-season.

2. Grant Hill, Orlando, Hill has only played in 47 games over the last three seasons. If he were healthy, Hill would be a top-flight draft choice. Given his injury history, he will most likely be reduced to 20+ minutes per game.

3. Drew Gooden, Cleveland, Gooden has the task of replacing All-Star Carlos Boozer at PF for the Cavaliers. Gooden needs to live up to his high draft status as the 4th pick of the 2002 draft. He needs to work on his defense and rebounding, but has all of the tools and potential needed to succeed. Paul Silas may be able to turn him into another rebounding machine.

4. Jason Hart/Brevin Knight, Charlotte, Both Hart and Knight are sleepers for some cheap assists as long as they can hold down the starting job for the expansion Bobcats. Hart appears to have the inside track right now. If they split time, this will diminish each of their respective values.

5. Udonis Haslem, Miami, Haslem played his way into the Heat's starting lineup late last year. If he can nail down the starting PF position, he would benefit from the double and triple teams that Shaq Daddy will see. He could be a nice source of boards deep in your draft.

6. Jason Kapano, Charlotte, Kapano has a chance to see significant playing time this year in Charlotte. He could easily average around 10 points per game and may hit in excess of 100 treys if he plays enough. Watch his playing time closely in the pre-season.

7. Nenad Kristic, New Jersey, The Nets first round pick from 2002 should see significant playing time as a NBA rookie. He will need to bulk up some to adapt to the NBA game. He has drawn comparisons to a young Vlade Divac and makes for a great dynasty league pick.

8. Jeff McInnis/Eric Snow, Cleveland, The winner of the point guard battle in Cleveland will be a nice source of cheap assists. If they split time, their fantasy value will decline accordingly.

9. Rodney Rogers, New Orleans, Rogers stands to inherit the starting small forward slot in New Orleans after Monster Mash was lost for the year. Some fantasy managers may overlook him, but Rogers could post decent numbers if he can withstand the rigors of starting for an entire season at age 33.

10. Aaron Williams, New Jersey, Williams may inherit the PF slot in New Jersey after Kenyon Martin bolted to Denver. His main competition will be rookie Nenad Kristic, their first round pick from 2002. He did average just over 10 points and 8.1 rebounds in seven starts last year. If he can nail down the starting job, he makes for a snare late in the draft. Williams may also qualify for center in some leagues.

11. Zaza Pachula, Milwaukee, Pachula saw very little playing time in Orlando last year. The Bucks will give him a chance to win the starting job as their center. If he can nail down the job, he could be a nice round draft choice for some double doubles.

12. Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando, Hedo finally had a chance to play some significant minutes in Orlando late last year. He averaged 13.8 points, 5.5 boards, 2.2 assists and 1.3 steals while nailing 55 treys in 25 games where he logged 30 minutes or more. If he can see enough minutes at the SF slot, Hedo could easily hit 130 to 150 treys over a full season.

 

 

10/28 PRESEASON NOTES

I have made some adjustments to the Sixers based on the recent starting lineup announcement. I reduced the playing time projections for Robinson and Dalembert. I did not increase the named starters much since I don't think they are a lock to start the whole season. So in that respect I am being conservative. The announcement adds some uncertainty to the Sixers. It could end up making Willie Green and Sammy Dalembert MORE of a steal if it scares some owners off now and then they end up as a starter after a couple weeks.

I am in a league where all the managers wrote a paragraph for each pick they made in a draft and I think the writeups are a good source of info in many instances on players. To read them go to

http://rotoguru1.com/cgi-bin/mb/hoop/10759.shtml.

From the Dallas Morning News – Sixth man Jerry Stackhouse declared that he wouldn't be ready for next week's opener against Sacramento. The veteran guard has missed the last five games with a right thigh contusion and won't take the court when the Mavericks close the preseason against the Kings tonight at American Airlines Center."I'm going to be cautious with it because I don't want it to be something dragging on for the whole season," said Stackhouse, who missed 54 games last season because of surgery on his right knee. "I'd rather get it taken care of, let it heal up, while it's still early in the season."

Perhaps it will be more of the same from Stackhouse this year in terms of missing games with injury. This will benefit Josh Howard who could end up with more minutes than initially thought at the beginning of the preseason. Also from the Dallas Morning News – “Josh Howard appeared to be the odd swingman out in the team's rotation at shooting guard and small forward. Nelson planned to bring him off the bench. But he's had a good camp, averaging 11.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists, and may have earned a starting spot to open the season.” Marquis Daniels has not practiced yet and Finley is slowed by a strained hamstring.

Brand returned last night after missing a couple games with soreness in his knee that had surgery.

Chris Kaman left last nights game with an ankle sprain after playing a couple minutes. I will look for reports on his prognosis.

Jamaal Tinsley’s backup Anthony Johnson will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken hand. This could translate into some extra playing time for Tinsley. Eddie Gill will be the backup now.

Gary Payton has a broken thumb but is not expected to miss any games.

Dwight Howard had 14 pts and 13 rebs last night. He has shown more promise in the preseason than Okafor although Okafor did score 15 pts last night.

Houston was one of the few teams that last night played a rotation that appeared to resemble what we might see in the regular season. It included Charlie Ward playing 30 minutes and getting 11 pts, 5 ast, and 4 st.

10/27 PRESEASON NOTES

Taken from the NY Post regarding Jason Kidd.

“Jason Kidd is hopeful he'll get a green light today. Kidd, coming off left knee microfracture surgery, is scheduled for his regular visit with specialist Dr. David Altchek and the All-World point guard anticipates getting a schedule to begin his on-court work.

"I'm feeling really good, had some great workouts," Kidd said last night, admitting he could be "running by the first [Monday]. Right now, we've been walking but going pretty hard at a good pace. I'm hopeful we get good news."

I will resist the temptation to increase his games projection just yet.

From the LA Times.

Kerry Kittles, the Clippers' most significant off-season pickup, has told teammates he probably won't play before Thanksgiving.…Kittles' absence probably will result in more playing time and increased responsibility for rookie Shaun Livingston, the first true point guard to jump directly from high school to the NBA and the fourth pick in the June draft. "I feel real good about where Shaun is, as far as his development," said Dunleavy, who probably will start Corey Maggette in the backcourt alongside point guard Marko Jaric, with Bobby Simmons filling in at small forward. "He's so much further ahead defensively than I could have hoped….

Based on this, why not try last round pick (after 140) on Bobby Simmons for some early season work. He has put up respectable numbers in the preseason including 1.7 spg.

Jim O’Brien announced that his opening night starting lineup will be Iverson, Kenny Thomas, Marc Jackson, Andre Iguodala, and Aaron Mckie leaving Willie Green, Samuel Dalembert, and Glen Robinson as reserves. This comes largely as a surprise but it is my feeling that this lineup will be subject to change and then the only sure thing is Iverson and Thomas starting. But for now, I will back down projections for Robinson, Dalembert, and Green a bit just to be safe. I am hesitant to give much of an increase to the starters named but Jackson certainly becomes more attractive in leagues requiring a center.

Theron Smith had 16 pts and 9 reb in 26 minutes in his second preseason game with the Bobcats.

Jeff Foster will be out 4-6 weeks with an injury. Scott Pollard will see more playing time but probably not enough to have fantasy value in most leagues.

Ron Artest had 35 pts and 4 steals.

Ron Mercer had 30 points on 12-18 FG. If he gets that many shots off in the regular season he may be worth adding to your roster.

Rodney White had 25 pts and 4 st in 33 min however he probably won’t have much value in the regular season. He might be a threat to the playing time of Voshon Lenard.

The Suns started Jake Voskuhl at center. Joe Johnson played 32 minutes as a starter and Quentin Richardson played 20 min as a reserve.

10/26 PRESEASON NOTES

This is from the Dallas Morning News “Michael Finley has missed two preseason games to rest his left hamstring, and his injury should be the most worrisome of the Mavericks' many ailments. Finley no longer is the iron man who once went six seasons without missing a game. He's 32 and has missed about a month of action each of the last three years. While Marquis Daniels' ankle was a more severe injury when it happened, he is nine years younger than Finley, and his recuperative powers would figure to be better.” There are number of injury issues for the Mavs but one of them does not seem to be Josh Howard who could end up as a sleeper as a result. I will tone down Finley’s projections based on this news.

I thought Kirk Hinrich might be somewhat of a sleeper this season but he seems to be getting a lot of respect in the drafts I have seen. In my draft he went 25th overall. The ESPN live draft picks has him at 52nd and I currently have him at 44th for the same categories (PARSB3 fg% ft%). So there is a little bit of a slip there of 8 places. Last night Hinrich had 32 points including 5-7 3-pointers and 9-12 FT and 5 assists. By the way, Hinrich was fourth in the league last year with 3.6 fouls per game so beware if that is a category in your league.

Eddy Curry is averaging 3.6 TO/gm in only 22 mpg in the preseason. Last season he averaged 2.4 TO/gm.

Brendan Haywood had 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks. He could be shaping up to be a sleeper with injuries to other Wizards front court players.

Drew Gooden had 25 points including 10-15 FG, 10 rebounds, and 3 steals.

Nick Collison had 14 points and 9 rebounds. He has been relatively quiet in the preseason.

To see a good summary of preseason stats visit http://www.dougstats.com/. However I just noticed that Nick Collison is not listed there.

 

 

10/25 PRESEASON NOTES

So far in the preseason Amare Stoudemire is projecting to make13 trips to the free throw line for every 36 minutes of play and making 69% of them. If he continues at this rate in the regular season it could make a negative impact on the FT% of his owners.

In six preseason games Jamal Crawford is averaging 29.2 mpg, 40% FG including 9-28 3 pointers, 14.5 ppg, and 1.7 spg. The following was reported in the New York Daily News regarding Allan Houston, “Allan Houston's status for the Nov. 3 season opener is no different today than it was eight months ago. Although Houston reported last night that his sore left knee is improving, both he and coach Lenny Wilkens hinted that Houston probably will not be available when the Knicks open the 2004-05 season against the Minnesota Timberwolves in nine days.” The same article indicates that if Houston is healthy he would be the starter over Jamal Crawford.

After a relatively slow start in the preseason, Jason Kapono has had some better games including 19 points yesterday. In the preseason though, he is only 1-9 for three pointers. Many fantasy owners are putting a lot of hopes on Primoz Brezec as a sleeper center. But realize he is largely unproven and last night his 4 pts and 1 reb in 32 minutes shows that there may be some rough nights ahead. Try not to overvalue him too much in your draft considering his risk of lack of experience.

In five preseason games the Wizards second year player Jarvis Hayes is averaging 16.6 ppg and 2 steals. He could be sleeper for the steal category.

Bobby Simmons has had a nice preseason for the Clippers and is second in scoring to Corey Magette. But this will not likely extend into the regular season when Elton Brand and Kerry Kittles return

Caron Butler played despite injuring his finger using a splint. He was 3-10 FG.

Both Etan Thomas and Kwame Brown may miss the beginning of the season. Brown with an injured foot and Thomas with an abdominal strain. This could elevate the early season playing time of Brendan Haywood.

 

10/24 PRESEASON NOTES

I have seen conflicting reports regarding Marquis Daniels as to whether he was slotted to start for the Mavericks or not. However now the issue with him is the impact that his sprained ankle may have on him starting the season. While I feel he was slated to be the starter, I have backed down his projections because of his sprained ankle. Meanwhile, rookie Devin Harris continues to be impressive with 20 pts and 5 steals yesterday.

Patricia Bender, a Mavs expert (http://www.dfw.net/~patricia/) Said the following to me via email today; “Marquis had a serious sprained ankle during the summer and still hasn't been cleared to practice. Devin is looking really good so far (especially for a rookie) and will be the backup point behind Jason Terry. Devin started last night (the Milwaukee game) due to it being his homecoming.

Keep an eye for DJ Mbenga. It's looking like he'll be the backup center, instead of spending the year tied to the bench as a project player. He is still raw, but can move "like a gazelle", loves to swat, and is a quick learner.”

As a follow-up to the discussion of Eric Snow and Jeff McInniss…as I see Eric Snow drifting to a backup point guard role, the shooting guard position will open up for the Cavs. Candidates are Lucious Harris and Dejuan Wagner. Harris used to put up nice numbers when given a chance for the Nets but missed much of last year with a sprained ankle. I would consider him a leading candidate. Note however that Wagner is 6 for 7 from three point land in the preseason!

At one time I thought Marcus Banks might be a sleeper particularly if Gary Payton did not show up in Boston. But it appears now he is out of favor with Doc Rivers and will struggle to get even backup minutes.

Jameer Nelson had 11 points and 7 assists last night. He has a relatively high profile for a non-lottery rookie from his NCAA exposure. He has played in all 6 Magic preseason game but is shooting just 37% from the field. In 18 mpg he is averaging 2.7 apg. He should continue to pass more and shoot less as he did last night.

Zorin Planinic had 13 pts and 7 ast for the Nets last night. Like Nelson he needs to work on his FG% and try to focus more on passing. However, I like his game as a 6-7 point guard.

Erick Dampier had 14 points including 5-7 FG and 11 rebounds. In 4 preseason games he has averaged in 26.5 mpg, 12 pts, 8 reb, and 1 bl. It will be interesting to see how he produces after signing a big contract. I toned down his per minute stats to account for the new contract let down and the fact he goes to a better team this season.

Tyson Chandler played only 9 minutes with a stomach virus. Recall he missed a number of games before with a digestive disorder of some sorts.

Note that Eddie Griffin is suspended by the NBA for the first three games of the season for pleading guilty to something. Check out how he does when he comes back. In the preseason he has been the third leading rebounder for the Wolves.

I have seen news that Mike Miller’s back may be a chronic problem this season. This would be good news for those who own other Grizzlies such as Bonzi Wells who has had some nice preseason games.

 

10/23 PRESEASON NOTES

The Blazer played what appeared to be a regular season rotation against the Bobcats last night. Abdur-Rahim and Miles split time at SF with 25 min and 23 min. Not good news at this point for their owners.

The Bobcats also seemed to give a decent preview of their regular season lineup. Brevin Knight and Jason Hart will likely split time at the PG spot. Knight is the type of player who does not need a whole lot of playing time to have some fantasy value for steals although he did not have any last night. Gerald Wallace was getting their first as he had 8 steals!

Marcus Camby missed the game last night because his back was ‘sore’. Expect a lot of missed games from him after recently signing a new contract.

With Jarvis Hayes out, Jared Jeffries started for the Wizards but did little in his 28 minutes to warrant additional consideration. If Jeffries does not show much in the preseason, it could translate into heavier minutes for Hayes during the regular season.

Ben Wallace played in his first preseason game and had 10 pts, 5 reb, and 0 blocks in 21 minutes. It is a good sign that he is playing again and getting back into shape.

Wally Szczerbiak had 20 pts on 10-15 FG in 33 minutes. Wally historically has been exceptional in the FG% category.

Kirilenko in 27 min had 13 pts, 7 reb, 7 ast, 4 bl, and 3 st! That is what makes him a first round pick.

Caron Butler partially tore the tendon in his right pinky in the second quarter of last nights game. It appears he will try to play with a splint.

Marquis Daniels may miss the beginning of the season with a sprained ankle.

 

 

10/22 PRESEASON NOTES

With Manu Ginobili sitting out (no injury), Devin Brown had 17 pts, 9 reb, and 3 stl. The Spurs like the third year player but he will likely not have much fantasy value during the regular season unless Ginobili or Barry get hurt.

Marc Jackson has had a very strong preseason for the Sixers contributing pts, reb, and good percentages from the field and the FT line. Last night he had 13 pts and 7 reb in only 17 minutes. However he is not expected at this time to play heavy minutes in the regular season. But if you can get him late and store him on your bench (after 120 players are taken) he certainly has an upside based on his preseason.

Zach Randolf had 34 pts and 17 reb in 39 minutes. However his cumulative total of assists, steals, and blocks was only 1. He is the type of player with strengths in points and rebounds who will likely always be picked by someone else before he surfaces to the top of my depth chart.

Loren Woods has blocked 8 shots in 3 preseason games despite playing limited minutes.

Rookie Shaun Livingston was given a start at PG by the Clippers but had 0 assists in 28 minutes and had no rebounds. He did score 10 points but the young player will likely not have much value this season.

Grant Hill continues to log minutes in the preseason and I have not heard any negative reports about his ankle. He does seem a bit tentative early on as he concentrates on getting to know his teammates.

Rookie Dwight Howard registered a double double and early on looks as if may have more value than Okafor. Of course the wildcard for him will be how he performs in the second half of the season. Those with Howard might consider trading him away during the first half of the season if he is doing well. I know that would be hard to do and he might even end up being strong like Amare Stoudemire was the entire season his rookie year.

In terms of FG%, Mike James is having a rough preseason and went 1-7 FG last night. He is slated to start for the Bucks while TJ Ford heals but if his FG% remains poor Maurice Williams might see more playing time at PG. However Williams’ FG% hasn’t been much better! Both have had similar assist and TO per minute numbers.

The Grizzlies haven’t given much indication of what their playing rotation will be next season. It will likely be similar to last year with EVERYONE playing some. In my draft, several of the Grizzlies (Battier, Miller, Wells, Cardinal) remain unpicked late and if either of them actually played more than 30 mpg they would be a tremendous steal.

Dallas rookie Devin Harris had his second consecutive impressive outing with 10 pts, 7 ast, 3 st, 2 bl, and 2 treys in 26 minutes. If he continues this play in the regular season he may cut into the playing time of starter Jason Terry. Realize in the preseason he may be going against lesser quality players.

Luol Deng had 20 pts in 31 minutes including 3 treys. Teammate Ben Gordon continues to struggle from the field going 3-12 FG last night.

Chris Mihm had 9 pts, 13 reb, and 2 bl in 40 minutes. Considering his preseason performances and the current back injury to Divac, he should be considered a sleeper. I will increase his projections.

10/21 PRESEASON NOTES

Ben Wallace has not played in the preseason as he continues to recover from an appendix surgery that caused him to lose weight in the offseason. He may start slow during the regular season presenting an opportunity to trade for him at a discount.

It is fairly apparent already that the Hawks have Antoine Walker and Al Harrington and not much else.

It is my gut feeling at this stage that it will be Jeff McInnis retaining most of his fantasy value from last season while Eric Snow drifts into more of a reserve role. Snow is not inclined to shoot much and McInnis can handle all the point guard duties.

Drew Gooden continues to pull down a lot of rebs with 14 in his most recent game.

With a starting lineup of Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson, Steve Nash, and Shawn Marion, the Suns blew out the Jazz. This is good news for owners of Johnson and Richardson who want to see both on the court at the same time rather than one backing up the other.

10/20 Preseason Notes

The following article regarding Rashard Lewis' foot injury is not very positive. I am going to lower his games played projections until he plays in a preseason game. Vladimir Radmanovic would stand to benefit if Lewis is out.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/basketball/195949_sonx20.html

In three preseason games Al Harrington is averaging 14 pts, 8 reb, and 1.7 steals. The steal numbers are impressive for him as he has averaged only

0.8 spg in his career. I expect him to be around 1 spg this season.

In three preseason games potential sleeper Primoz Brezec is averaging 19 pts, 9 reb, and 1.3 bls. I will revisit his projections. In the meantime, if you have had your draft consider picking him up as a free agent.

Gerald Wallace is averaging 18 pts and 6 reb over 3 games. Note that he does not have three point range.

Okafor has blocked only 1 shot in three preseason games.

Positive comments have been made by the Sixers coach about Andre Iguodala'

prospects for playing time. Iguodala will be taken after around 120 players in most drafts. When you get to this stage of the draft you do not always stick to the top player on your chart if it seems like they don't have much upward potential. For example a player like Reggie Miller. Don't be afraid to drop down and take a shot at a player like Iguodala.

Zoran Planinic had 14 pts, 7 reb, and 5 ast (although a ton of TO's also).

He is another player perhaps worth taking a flyer on and a he is a possible source of the coveted assist category. Note his value goes away when Kidd returns.

Rookie JR Smith is averaging 14 ppg in four preseason games (23 mpg). He has also hit 9 treys.

Stephen Jackson had 29 pts in 31 minutes. He had been discounted because of potential competition from Reggie Miller.

Andres Nocioni and Luol Deng are both having strong preseasons for the Bulls. Yesterday Deng had 18 pts, 12 reb, and 3 treys. Nocioni had 20 pts,

12 reb and 2 bl. Ben Gordon on the other hand is only 6-30 FG in the preseason. I recently lowered his FG% projections.

Damon Jones, PG Miami Heat, is averaging 11 pts, 5 ast, and 2 treys in the preseason. He has sleeper potential with Rafer Alston gone to Toronto as the best pure PG for the Heat.

With Marquis Daniels out, Dallas rookie Devin Harris had 16 pts, 6 ast, 5 st, and 2 bl! This is an eye opening performance for him.

In 4 preseason games, Derek Fisher is leading Golden State in scoring at 16 ppg including 25-26 FT. Speedy Claxton has been out with a groin strain.

With Elton Brand out, Chris Wilcox had 22 pts in 28 min.

Caron Butler had 18 pts, 6 reb, 3 st, and 2 bl in 33 min.

With Vlade Divac out, Chris Mihm blocked 8 shots in his first two preseason games.

10/19 PRESEASON NOTES

The following article discusses the center situation in Toronto. It

speaks highly of potential sleeper Chris Bosh. Just about everything I

have read about Bosh has been very positive.

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/TorontoSun/Sports/2004/10/19/675712.html

There were two preseason games yesterday.

Drew Gooden had 10 pts, 15 reb, and 2 bl in 24 min. Gooden is once

again listed as a potential sleeper this year. This is despite how he

fell short last season when I had also thought he would emerge. So it

was with much thought that I decided to put him on the list again this

season. This brief performance at least supports my thoughts of his

potential. His failure last year gave me a personal sting as he was on

my team but I actually took him again this year at this risk of being

bitten twice. The difference this year is that he really does not have

serious competition for regular playing time.

Jeff McInnis was active offensively with 22 pts in 24 minutes. The jury

is still out on his regular season playing time.

New Jersey turned in a number of individual ugly box scores with no

player scoring in double figures and 36% team shooting. The Nets as a

team will probably have the fewest number of players active on fantasy

rosters.

Which reminds me to point out that I sum up the total minutes for each

team in your rankings to use as a check for how I have distributed the

playing time among players on the same team. In my early projections I

noticed I had too many minutes being played by Sixers players and

selectively reduced the playing time of players to have a more realistic

distribution.

On the other had New Jersey had the fewest minutes projected as a team.

In this case I did make some increases, but I think this is an instance

where the team just does not the players with enough value to show up in

the rankings. So I use the tool mostly to lower projections of players

on certain teams.

Antoine Walker was 6-17 FG and 13-16 FT. He will have a number of

similar nights shooting from the field in the regular season. 13-16 FT

is pretty good for him as a career 66% FT shooter. I would not expect

that kind of FT shooting from him much during the regular season. He

typically does not go to the line that often either preferring to spot

up and shoot from long range.

Potential sleeper Rasual Butler had 10 pts and 8 reb in 31 min for

Miami.

 

 

OCTOBER 18 PRESEASON NOTES

There have been 80 picks in my expert draft. The top 60 players on the depth chart are gone and the lowest ranked players taken were Joe Johnson and Grant Hill. Those two owners though may have been banking on Johnson not splitting time as much as I have thought with Quentin Richardson and the other manager is betting on Grant Hill being healthier than I have accounted for. Both are justifiable. Note Jason Kidd went 74th overall. The league categories are PARSB3 FT% FG%.

So the results of the draft are so far in my mind a pretty good check of my depth chart. I get more concerned about the other 11 managers passing on a player than I do about 1 manager taking a player earlier than I expected in terms of using the draft as effectively a check of my projections. Once again… to follow the draft go to http://rotoguru1.com/php/rihcgrid.php

to read the basis for the managers picks go to http://rotoguru1.com/cgi-bin/mb/hoop/10736.shtml

There were a number of preseason games last night.

Morris Peterson, who will likely not start, had 26 pts including 3-5 treys.

Rafeal Araujo had 6 pts and 5 fouls in 16 minutes. The Raptors hoped Araujo would allow Chris Bosh to play PF. However in the preseason it has been Loren Woods who has been more impressive than Araujo.

In the early goings it appears that Andre Iguodala will be the type that may not score a lot but still contributes. He had 8 pts, 5 ast, and 3 steals. Iverson was not available to help get Andre more assists as he was ejected. With Iverson out, Willie Green had 16 pts in 30 min.

Michael Olowokandi had a much better showing with 11 pts, 12 reb, and 2 bl in 31 min. The Wolves would gladly take those numbers in the regular season.

Darko Milicic played 25 minutes, perhaps the most he has ever seen in an NBA game. He had 5 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 1 st, and 2 bl.

Grant Hill had his best game of the preseason with 20 pts, 6 reb, 5 ast, 1 bl, 1 st in 26 min.

I was curious how many shots Kobe would take in his next preseason game after so many in the previous. I was initially impressed with his restraint when seeing he took only 10 shots. However then I noticed he went to the FT 19 times meaning he WANTED to shoot a lot more but kept getting fouled. Note this all translates into him being a fantasy monster although probably not too popular with his teammates.

Utah finally played their first preseason game. It was tough to find a box score but I was referred to:

http://www.sltrib.com/jazz/ci_2429903

I am not going to comment much on preseason DNP’s unless it is apparent it is an injury that will cause the player to miss some of the regular season.

OCTOBER 17 PRESEASON NOTES

We had our first season ending preseason injury. Chris Crawford has a knee injury that will cause him to miss the entire season. This will add to the minutes of other Hawk front court players including Antoine Walker, Al Harrington, Josh Childress, and Boris Diaw. At this time I don’t forsee a particular players time spiking up as a result of this injury.

As the preseason goes on I will try to get a firm hold of what Brent Barry’s role on the Spurs will be and in particular if he will have an impact on the playing time of Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker. In my expert league draft http://rotoguru1.com/php/rihcgrid.php

Ginobili slipped quite a bit and I am wondering if the other league managers are concerned about Brent Barry. Upon reminding myself of the 6 year $52 million contract he signed in the offseason I took him thinking he has to continue to play a major role on the team.

Jamal Crawford continues to have a strong preseason for the Knicks. I think he should continue to play a major role for them even after Allan Houston returns. Crawford had 25 pts in 25 min yesterday.

The Nets had a starting lineup considerably different than what they had in their first preseason game. The playing rotation remains uncertain. Rodney Buford had 19 pts and 3 st.

Clippers rookie Shaun Livingston played 29 min and had 10 pts and only 1 assist.

Hornets rookie JR Smith had another strong preseason game 22 pts and 4 treys. At this time I don’t have projected stats for him. These performances are coming with the projected started David Wesley out and he will probably not be getting extended minutes during the season.

Ron Artest had 19 pts and 5 steals in 29 minutes. Artest should once again be a league leader in the steal category.

Antonio McDyess had 9 rebounds in 19 minutes. Derrick Coleman is also playing for the Pistons. I lowered slightly the playing time projection for Rasheed Wallace based on these two apparently being healthy in the preseason. Wallace did not play last night because of a stiff back. Darko Milicic fouled out in 19 minutes. Wonder what the Pistons would be like with Carmelo Anthony on the team.

With Shaq out, Dwayne Wade had 20 pts in 24 minutes along with 4 steals.

Eddie Curry had 21 points in 35 minutes lending support to his claims of being in shape. Loul Deng made his statement with 17 pts, 7 reb, and 2 st in 19 minutes. Nocioni was 2-10 FG.

Jason Kapono had 17 pts and 5 reb in 30 min for the Bobcats. Okafor had another mediocre showing. More of this and I will consider lowering his projections. Potential sleeper Primoz Brezec had 12 pts and 8 reb for the Bobcats.

Shareef had another strong showing for the Blazers as did his competition for playing time Darius Miles.

Nene did not play because of a strained hamstring. I presume this is not serious.

OCTOBER 16 PRESEASON NOTES

There were three games in the NBA last night.

Allen Iverson played 27 minutes of point guard and had 4 assists and 32 pts. For now I will not increase his assists projections.

Potential sleeper Samuel Dalembert had 10 pts, 11 reb, and 5 bl in 23 minutes. Marc Jackson DNP because of a hip flexor.

Potential sleeper Chris Bosh had 15 pts and 8 reb in 20 min.

Rafer Alston, the likely starting PG for Toronto, had 5 ast and 2 st in 16 minutes.

Toronto rookie Rafael Araujo played only 5 minutes. I have lowered his projections until he shows a little something.

Rookie Dwight Howard had 17 pts and 11 reb.

Grant Hill played for 29 minutes and had 8 pts.

Rookie Jameer Nelson had 17 point but no assists.

Udonis Haslem had 18 pts and 11 reb while Shaq sat out with a sore hamstring. The Heat have indicated they are just playing it safe with Shaq.

Bulls rookie Andres Nocioni had 15 pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 st, and 1 bl. Here is an early indication that he can fill out the stat sheet.

Rookie Ben Gordon took 18 shots in 29 minutes and had 13 pts, 5 reb, 6 ast, and 2 st. He made only 4 of his 18 shots.

 

OCTOBER 15 PRESEASON NOTES

There were several preseason games on Thursday evening. The following are some notes from those games.

The Nets started Ron Mercer and Zoran Planinic in the backcourt. Mercer was typically unimpressive at 3-9 FG and did not do much else. Zoran was the 22nd overall pick in the 2003 draft and does not have much of an NBA track record. He could be starting until Kidd returns. He had 4 ast in 20 min on Thursday.

Jamal Crawford filled out the stat sheet for the Knicks with 19 pts, 7 reb, and 6 ast. As usual though his FG% was not great at 4-13.

Mike Sweetney had 11 rebounds in 25 min. If Kurt Thomas can spend sometime as center the Knicks might be able to get extra minutes for Sweetney at the expense of Nazr Mohammed.

Washington and Charlotte played a double overtime game. Antawn Jamison played 55 minutes for the Wizards. What is the Wizards coaching thinking by playing his most established player ridiculous minutes in the first preseason game against an expansion team while other players he should be evaluating sit on the bench. The answer? Perhaps sending a message to fantasy managers around the world the type of minutes and value Jamison will have when the season counts.

Jarvis Hayes has been real impressive in the preseason. On Thursday he had 31 points, 14 reb, 2 st, and 2 blocks. Of course the double OT games allowed him to play 49 minutes. The Wizards started Jamison at PF and Hayes at SF.

For Charlotte, Okafor played 34 minutes but had only 4 rebs and 1 bl. These categories will need to form the core of his fantasy value in the regular season so this is not a good sign for him.

The Bobcats played what seemed like a regular season game rotation with Primoz Brezec and Gerald Wallace as standouts. Brezec had 26 pts and 11 reb. Wallace had a stat-stuffing 26 pts, 12 reb, 5 ast, 2 st, and 1 bl. Lets check out PB in another game and then add him to the sleeper list.

Potential sleeper Jason Kapono was not impressive.

There were a total of 77 fouls called in the Memphis – Cleveland game! Lebron was impressive with 25 points in 30 minutes.

Potential sleeper Drew Gooden had 13 pts and 12 reb in 25 minutes. I’m a little hesitant to tout Gooden too much after how he fell short last season, but I think his situation is much better this year in Cleveland than it was in Orlando. Gooden should want to help Cleveland to forget about Boozer-gate.

Michael Olowokandi registered 6 fouls and 5 TO in only 16 minutes. That must have been ugly to witness.

Eddie Griffin had his second encouraging game. I don’t even have stats projected for Griffin right now but will take care of that soon. For now use your judgment and consider around the 150 player mark if you like taking risks.

Kenny Anderson had a solid game as the Hawks point guard with 13 pts, 5 ast, 7 reb, and 2 st.

Zaza Pachuia in Milwaukee is another to add to the watch list as a candidate to start for the Bucks. He had 12 pts and 7 reb on Thursday.

Earl Boykins had a fine game and serves as a menace to the fantasy value of the starter Andre Miller if he keeps it up.

Troy Murphy continues to look good with a 17 pt and 11 reb performance.

 

OCTOBER 14 PRESEASON NOTES

The Rockets played the Kings this morning in China. Of significance was the fact that Chris Webber played. He had 14 pts and 11 reb in 24 minutes. I will look for news on how his knee reacts to this run.

Mike Bibby took 5 three point shots making 3 of them. I recently have been debating lowering his three point projections. Last year he attempted a 6-year career high 4.6 treys per game. However this preseason game is an indication he plans to continue firing from long range. Note that Bobby Jackson and Doug Christie did not play due to injuries.

Rookie Josh Childress played 17 minutes and had 3 pts and 5 fouls.

Mark Blount was 12-13 FT. He typically has not made a significant number of trips to the FT line.

Rookie JR Smith (18th overall pick for the Hornets) played with David Wesley sidelined with an injury. He had 19 pts including 4 treys. I will put him on my watch list.

Jerry Stackhouse looked healthy scoring 20 pts in 31 minutes including his customary strong contributions from the FT line.

Eddie Griffin took 12 shots in 12 minutes including no three point attempts. In the past, he took more three point attempts than he should have. He also block 3 shots. I will continue to monitor him in the preseason.

Ten players played 21-22 minutes for the Bucks including Desmond Mason who had 26 points including 12-12 from the FT line. Last season Mason averaged a healthy 5.7 FT att per game.

Potential sleeper Chris Wilcox had 11 pts and 8 reb in 24 min before fouling out. Chris Kaman did not play in this game because of a sore shin.

Amare Stoudamire made 16 trips to the FT line but made only 10 of them for 63%. In his first two seasons he has shot 66% and 71%. This is one of the few weaknesses in his game.

Darius Miles was 0-11 FG. However last season in 42 games for Portland he did shoot 52.6% so this you would think was just a bad luck night.

10/13 PRESEASON NOTES

There were four preseason games last night.

Dwight Howard had an impressive debut with 18 pts and 9 reb in 31 minutes as a starter. He did not block any shots however. The majority of the Magic shots were taken by Francis, Mobley, and Howard, a trend that could extend into the season.

Grant Hill played for 16 minutes as a starter. Hill’s competition for playing time, Hedo Turkoglu was 6-8 FG for 15 pts.

Paul Pierce was 7-11 from the field. He is a career 43.2% shooter but shot only 40.2% last season which was the third consecutive season where his FG% was lower than the season before. It would not surprise me to see that FG% improve playing alongside Gary Payton.

The Sixers starting lineup had Brian Skinner in it. I may back down Dalembert’s projections if indeed he will not be a starter. However the Sixers also started McKie who I believe will not start in the regular season.

Marc Jackson had 21 points in only 14 minutes. He missed much of last season with an injured finger and was mired on benches before that. I would consider him a sleeper were it not for Dalembert and Skinner.

Jarvis Hayes scored 23 points and had somewhere between 3 to 5 steals depending on what box score you are looking at…

Raef LaFrentz played 22 minutes. We will see how his knee handles subsequent games.

Ricky Davis may be a starter at SF for the Celtics this season. This could result in an increase in his playing time projections. Last season he averaged 29.4 mpg for the Celtics.

Rookie guard Tony Allen had 5 steals for the Celtics.

Pau Gasol had 12 pts and 10 reb for Memphis. He averaged only 31.5 mpg last season but got the big bucks in the offseason. Memphis cutting him loose to play 35-40 represents an upside for him.

If Kobe takes 21 shots (13 three point attempts!) in a preseason game for 35 points, imagine what happens when the games count. No Shaq + no Phil Jackson + no prison = Kobe goes crazy. It would not surprise me to see him have more fantasy value than Kevin Garnett this season.

Potential sleeper Nick Collison played 21 min for the Sonics and fouled out with 6 points.

Antonio Daniels had an impressive 7 assists and 1 TO however his competition Luke Ridnour had 7 assists and 0 TO.

The following suggestion was sent in by a subscriber.

Since my league picks 10 supplemental players, I try to identify one or two players that currently have little to no value but are an injury away to the player ahead of them in the depth charts from having significant value and select them with my last supplemental picks. Obviously, I try to focus on the backups to those players that are injury prone but healthy at the beginning of the season (a Marcus Camby type). If the inevitable happens and that guy goes down, I've hit the jackpot. If not, I've only wasted a pick on a player that likely would not crack my lineup anyway.

I sometimes use a variation of this strategy and pick backups to players that I have in my starting lineup. This gives some protection against the loss of production if the starter gets hurt. An example would be to take Marcus Banks if Gary Payton is on your team. Banks was originally traded to the Lakers but came back as compensation for Payton not showing up for his physical.

OCTOBER 12 PRESEASON NOTES

It is mentioned in this article that the Knicks feel Michael Sweetney is ready to start. They are trying to trade away starter Kurt Thomas which is what it would take to free up minutes for Sweetney.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/story/241158p-206846c.html

6’-11” Wizards small forward Jared Jeffries is a potential sleeper this season. He happened to lead the Wizards in playing time last night with 28 minutes. However with Jarvis Hayes and Antawn Jamison, the Wizards are crowded at his position. If he is able to play some PF he will have more opportunities early on with Kwame Brown out. Jeffries quietly played in all 82 games last season and is mentioned in the following sleeper article.

http://fantasysports.yahoo.com/analysis/news?slug=bf-nbasleepers-se&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&league=fantasy/nba

Jermaine O’Neal did not play last night due to a sprained foot. I will monitor news to try to determine the severity of the injury.

Also during the preseason, I will attempt to determine how the Pacers plan to distribute minutes between Stephen Jackson and Reggie Miller. Reggie is past his prime and his main impact is to potentially prevent Jackson from being a desirable fantasy player (as he was last season).

I am currently participating in an expert draft. You can follow the picks by going to http://rotoguru1.com/php/rihcgrid.php

The ways things worked out, owners were randomly given numbers 1 thru 12. The owner with #1 got to pick his draft position. I had 12 and therefore had to take the draft spot not taken by the other 11 owners. That was the 12th pick. I don’t think it really puts me at any distinct disadvantage in that I at least get to have 2 of the first 13 picks.

OCTOBER 11, PRESEASON NOTES

The first two preseason games were played last night. Box scores may be found at www.nba.com.

Of note from last night was that Chris Webber did not play because of swelling in his knee. Of concern is the following quote from the Sac. Bee. “…the greater likelihood is that Webber's knee problems will be persistent and probably chronic.” Based on Webber’s history and what we already see early in the preseason, I encourage you to let Webber go to someone else’s team. Chances are another manager will take Webber before he appears at the top of your depth chart.

http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/story/11054364p-11971217c.html

ESPN.com published a mock draft at -

http://games.espn.go.com/content/fba/2005/story?id=1896384

In the draft Webber went 24th overall which I would consider a risky pick. At the same time Gasol went 43 and Carmelo went 48! I think I would want either on my team instead of Webber.

At the same time Jason Kidd went 20th overall. Considering he is recovering from a major surgery that will have him out until at least December that seems early. Several other managers made that comment in the discussion published at –

http://games.espn.go.com/content/fba/2005/story?id=1896622

Consider that the Nets, who will be starting the likes of Ron Mercer, may be essentially out of playoff contention by December and that Jason Kidd has already expressed his displeasure With the Nets offseason moves, Kidd may certainly take his time returning from the injury. Like Webber, I recommend you let another manager take Kidd.

Shaq looked good in his debut for the Heat (although he was 1-3 FT!). I usually don’t make real world projections, but am I the only one on the planet who thinks the Heat will struggle to make the playoffs because of their lack of depth despite Shaq being apparently in-shape. The Heats starting lineup included Rasual Butler who may be added to the sleeper list.

Question: Who led the Rockets in shots attempts last night?

A – Tracy McGrady

B - Dikembe Mutombo

C – Calvin Murphy

D - Bostjan Nachbar

answer below

Speedy Claxton did well in his preseason game. I will try to get a further handle in the preseason how the Warriors plan to split time between Claxton and Fisher and adjust the projections accordingly. Taking Claxton, regardless of his preseason performances would involve risk as he has played only an average of 52 games in his 3-year career.

Adonal Foyle, who gained notoriety in the offseason by signing a relatively big contract in the offseason despite modest career achievements missed the game with a strained hamstring. Foyle is an intriguing prospect considering Dampier has left and his shot blocking ability, but I suspect he will have issues with durability, particularly after signing such a nice new contract. Troy Murphy, on the other hand, did suit up to play, although the Warriors started Dale Davis ahead of him.

OK – the answer to the trivia question was B, Dikembe Mutombo, who took 8 shots compared to 7 for McGrady!

 

10/9 PRESEASON NOTES

I recently lowered that playing time projection for Josh Howard but kept him on the sleeper list. It was published that Howard would not be getting extended playing time as he comes of the bench. However he has good fantasy qualities and an injury to a starter would make him a desirable player.

One of Richard Hamilton’s goals is to make more three pointers according to the article from the Detroit Free Press linked to below. Over his 5 year career he has averaged 0.4 treys per game at 30%. This weakness along with sub par steal numbers have prevented him from being a top 40 player in your typical 8 category roto league. I will monitor him in preseason games. If he is serious about boosting his three point output this is where he should be practicing.

http://www.freep.com/sports/pistons/pistons9e_20041009.htm

I recently received by email team reports for all of the NBA teams from the Sporting News. For each team the starting five was projected with a short blurb next to the name. I copied a few of them down below. I am suspicious though when the Sixers team report shows Skinner starting over Dalembert. Also, the Cleveland report indicates Snow starting at PG with McInnis at SG which contradicts what I read in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. However, there are some players listed down there that typical fantasy managers may not realize are prime candidates for a starting role. Examples are Nocioni in Chicago and Drobnjak in Atlanta.

SF Andres Nocioni Is one of the best players on the best international team: Argentina.

SG Ben Gordon Will get all the playing time he can handle.

C Peja Drobnjak Is proficient on pick-and-pop plays. Will start for the Hawks PF Dwight Howard Could be hard-pressed to keep his starting job as he learns the NBA game.

SF Rasual Butler Inherits the job after the trade of Caron Butler to the Lakers.

PF Danny Fortson The team hopes he'll provide much-needed toughness.

SG Ron Mercer Definite downgrade from Kittles, especially on defense.

C Chris Kaman Must add consistency and strength.

SF Darius Miles Must show he is worthy of a new long-term contract.

SG Gordan Giricek On his third team in three years, he finally seems to have found the right fit.

SG Voshon Lenard Nuggets needs him to be a consistent outside threat.

PF Chris Webber His injured knee reportedly still is not 100 percent. Will he ever be?

PG Chucky Atkins Might not fit in the new uptempo offense.

SF Wally Szczerbiak The T-wolves need at least 70 games out of him.

Another situation that isn’t clear yet and probably won’t be until the season starts is the role of Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson for the Suns. I read an article the other week that indicated the Suns will try to give Amare some time at center this season. This would be the best case scenario for Joe J and Q.

A subscriber has offered the following auction draft strategy.

“One effective strategy in an auction that I might add is to put out initial bids of players you don't necessarily want, but which would obviously be attractive to someone else, such as an injured star or an aging player past his most productive years. Provided you don't miscalculate and wind up stuck with him, someone else in the room will wind up with the player and burn a spot on their roster, leaving the more desirable players on your wish list still available. I call this the straw dog technique.”

 

OCTOBER 8 PRESEASON NOTES

The following article discusses the current health of Wally Szczerbiak. He is similar to Eddy Curry and Glenn Robinson, in that if the rumors of his health are true he is a candidate to be a sleeper this season. Over the past two seasons, Wally has played a total of only 80 games. Even if healthy though, he faces competition in the form of Latrell Sprewell. Wally’s new teammate is troubled Eddie Griffin who came to the NBA as a high draft pick but has struggled. While he will not both worth taking a risk in drafting, he can not be written off totally yet.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpYTg2ZTBwBF9TAzk1ODYxOTQ4BHNlYwN0bQ--?slug=ap-timberwolves-szczerbiak&prov=ap&type=lgns

Potential sleeper Luke Walton sprained his ankle in practice. I will look for news to determine the severity of the sprain.

Merv Pate of RotoLab.com, recently suggested the following strategies for participating in an auction draft. The numbers he uses are specific to a league that has 10 teams and acquires 6 players with a budget of $100 before filling out the team with a serpentine draft.

“Owners that have never been through an auction tend to be a little shy of the first several players. There are usually some bargains to be had on the first few players. In our draft, the top couple of players go for around $46 to $55. If you can get a bargain early on do so, but save some money for down the stretch there will be a couple of great bargains at the end for $1 to $5. Also, sometimes you can shock the room. If Kevin Garnet is the top player, he should easily go for $50 to $55, maybe even more. If someone throws him out for bid at say, $5, immediately bid $47, sometimes you can shock the room and get him for $5 to $8 less than he should have gone. If someone says $48, say $49, he is still under value if you think he is worth $55. How high you go after that depends on your plans. Finally, player bidding tends to stop on "9"s like 19, 29, 39, ..... If you think a player is worth say, $34, and the bidding is going $23, $24, $25, then say $ 29, sometime thi!

s will scare them off and you save a few bucks.

The key is have a good set of values going in and to not overspend. But DON'T get your values from a valuation that uses the entire pool. If you do you will underbid every time. You are only valuing 6 X the number of teams, not the whole draft pool.”

If others would like to share their draft strategy reply to this email and I will include in a future preseason notes.

 

 

OCTOBER 7 PRESEASON NOTES

I have read some positive news about Glenn Robinson, one of which is linked to below. Robinson is coming off a season where he achieved career lows in points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, minutes, and games played. Much of this can be attributed to injuries. Here is another case where a player claims to have maintained a rigorous workout routine in the offseason. Reason to believe his claim is that the 32-year old Robinson is a free agent at the end of the season. Robinson is a candidate to perform at a level higher than you get him in the draft. I will see how he is in preseason games and re-visit his projections.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=nba&id=1896469

Troy Murphy is another player who took a step back last season due to injury and has a new contract to play for this season. However in the article below the new Warriors coach is suggesting a deep rotation similar to the Grizzlies that could put a damper on the fantasy value of all those in Golden State.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2004/10/07/SPGOB951H41.DTL

Potential sleeper Marquis Daniels sprained his ankle in the offseason and is not practicing with the team yet. His game projections may be backed down a little until he appears in a preseason game.

Sam Cassell has showed up for training camp. He is hoping for a healthy contract extension. Cassell had a career year last season and is at the point in his career where his performances will likely start to drop off. The chances of that increase if Minnesota gives him the big money extension he is looking for.

For those looking for a cheap point guard places to consider are Seattle and Atlanta. In Seattle, with Brent Barry gone, the candidates are Antonio Daniels and Luke Ridnour. Daniels has been in the league seven seasons, never averaging more than 26 mpg. However last season he averaged a 4.2 apg and had an impressive 4.9 a/to ratio. He also shoots strong percentages but is not great in the steal category. Ridnour has good assist and steal averages on a per minute basis but commits more turnovers and has less experience.

Atlanta has Kenny Anderson and Tony Delk at the point guard position. Over 8 seasons, Delk has averaged 21.5 mpg starting in about 25% of these games. Anderson has been a starter the majority of his career but at the stage he is at now in his career, even getting over 30 mpg he will have limited fantasy value. But those in deeper leagues may have use for the player who gets most of the PG minutes on the Hawks.

Yesterdays blurb for Rodney White was cut off. Here it is again… Rodney White re-signed with the Nuggets. Despite a lack of stiff competition at shooting guard (the Nuggets now have Voshon Lenard and Greg Buckner), White will most likely not be worthy of being on a fantasy roster. However, the relative lack of competition may give him an opportunity sometime during the season.

 

 

OCTOBER 6 PRESEASON NOTES

The following article indicates Chris Webber is in much better shape than last season. I will revisit his projections, however it is difficult to put much faith in a player that has averaged only 58.5 games in ten seasons (this excludes the 50 game strike shortened 98-99 season). His initial projection was for 68 games and with all things considered, this seemed relatively generous.

http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/basketball/kings/story/10983941p-11901263c.html

I added new Atlanta Hawks Antoine Walker and Al Harrington to the sleeper list in the Report. Both players go from having a secondary role on their previous team to having a primary role with the Hawks. Of the two, I am more up on Walker since Harrington is sub-par in assists, treys, steals, and blocks and has not in the past excelled enough in rebounds and points to compensate. But as a primary player with the Hawks, there is a possibility he can take his game to the next level. Walker on the other hand does have the ability to fill out the stat sheet and has particular value in leagues not considering FT% and FG%.

Raef LaFrentz reportedly is healing adequately from his injury last season and is projected to be a starter for the Celtics. He has been off the radar the past couple seasons and won’t be expensive to acquire this year.

With Eric Snow now in Cleveland, Allen Iverson is projected to start at point guard with Willie Green at shooting guard. On the Sports Radio here in Philadelphia, it was mentioned that Iverson wants to lead the league in assists. I have been debating whether him having the ball in his hands coming up the court will result in more assists or more shot attempts. I will watch AI during the preseason to see if he gives a good reason to increase his assist projections. There was a time when Iverson said before a season he wanted to league the league in steals…and you know what? – he did.

Willie Green is listed as a sleeper in your report and he is at a turning point in his career as the projected starting shooting guard for the Sixers. However, he needs to improve his steal numbers and his FG% and FT% to really become a desirable fantasy player. When I say steal numbers, I am thinking of steals per minute. If Iverson is to be a major player in assists someone needs to be scoring, and Green is the leading candidate for that. Don’t be surprised to see him average over 15 ppg. Iverson has stated his confidence in Green’s scoring ability and I have been impressed with his explosiveness.

And speaking of Eric Snow…I have read that the Cavs are planning on starting Snow at shooting guard with Jeff McInnis at point guard. While this scenario could rescue both of their fantasy values, shooting has never been a strong suit of Eric Snow. He has improved over the years but I don’t see him succeeding at shooting guard.

Rodney White re-signed with the Nuggets. Despite a lack of stiff competition at shooting guard (the Nuggets now have Voshon Lenard and Greg Buckner), White will most likely not be worthy of being on a fantasy roster. However, the relative lack of competition may give

 

 

OCTOBER 5 PRESEASON NOTES

With training camp open more detailed info on injuries to players is coming available.

Marko Jaric of the Clippers has a broken finger and will miss the beginning of training camp. The other projected starting guard for the Clippers, Kerry Kittles, is recovering from July knee surgery and will miss most, if not all, of training camp. If injuries to the starters linger, the possibility is there that rookie Shaun Livingston will get more playing time. He will be given a chance to prove himself in training camp.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/clippers/la-sp-clippers5oct05,1,583343.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-nba-clippe

Devean George is expected to miss the first 2-4 four weeks of the regular season because of surgery to his ankle. I will adjust his projections accordingly. Another Laker forward (assuming his signs with them), Karl Malone, does not have a definite return date but will not be ready when the season begins. Both of these factors contribute to Caron Butler and even Luke Walton being sleepers. Right now Walton is rated relatively low but I feel he has a nice upside. His per minutes stats are healthy and he had his moments last year in the playoffs when Malone was hurt.

Jason Kidd is expected back in December, but considering he is recovering from a major procedure to his knee I recommend avoiding him even at a discount.

Kwame Brown is expected to miss the first 1-2 weeks of the season with a broken toe. His projections have this absence accounted for already.

TJ Ford will not be ready to start the season. Mike James will see extra minutes early on. James can do some damage to your FG% but contributes treys and might be a decent late round pick to supplement your assists. Realize you will probably discard him later in the season for an emerging free agent.

Gary Payton, Vince Carter, and Peja Stojakovic have all showed up for their teams.

Sam Cassell is not happy with his contract but I think it is unlikely he will not show up for work. I will look for news though that he has officially reported to training camp.

The following article discusses that the Bobcats starting five has not been determined yet. Okafor is probably the only sure starter. The Bobcats biggest lack of depth is at point guard where Jason Hart is given a vote of confidence by the coach in the article.

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/sports/basketball/nba/charlotte_bobcats/9837643.htm

 

OCTOBER 4TH PRESEASON NOTES

Good afternoon! Welcome to the first preseason emailer initiating the ninth season for HoopsKlyce fantasy basketball services.

This offseason saw more than 125 veteran players change teams and the creation of a new expansion team in Charlotte. After a lull in substantive news the past couple months, the preseason will bring fresh insights upon which the HoopsKlyce player projections can be adjusted.

The Sun Times published an article http://www.suntimes.com/output/bulls/cst-spt-bull03.html in which Eddie Curry claimed he is back this season to make a statement. This type of news is common in the preseason for many players and for those who are coming off a disappointing season (or in a disappointing career) I don’t give it much weight. But in the case of Curry, there is physical evidence of an off season workout program in that he lost weight. More importantly, at the end of the season it will be time for him to sign his first big contract. Curry may very likely put up big numbers in the same manner that Erick Dampier did last season for the Warriors in his contract year. And by the way, Curry’s teammate Tyson Chandler has the same inspiration.

For a list other players with similar visions of new contract dollar signs at the end of this season see the list at the end of this email.

Fantasy managers will need to make a decision on what to do about Grant Hill. The following article indicates that he has a pulse nowadays. Your predraft update will have projected stats for Hill and I will be watching his preseason performances as one source of info for making these projections.

http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Sports/NBA/03SportsNBA070100304.htm

I will be interested to see if Gary Payton decides to report to Boston. Whether he is there will have a big impact on the value of Marcus Banks with Marcus making the sleeper list if Payton does not show up.

The preseason should say a lot about what the rotation will be for the Charlotte Bobcats. I referred back to the inaugural season stats for Toronto and Vancouver and was reminded the new expansion teams really were not fertile ground for sleepers but nonetheless I will be looking for those hidden gems. Jason Kapono and Gerald Wallace are my pre-preseason choices for sleepers in Charlotte.

Another team that I think will have many similarities to an expansion team is the New Jersey Nets (at least until Jason Kidd returns). I am not quite certain yet who will be starting for them beyond Richard Jefferson and will look to the preseason for more definite answers to that question.

 

Players to become Free Agents after this season source - http://www.dfw.net/~patricia/contracts

Adrian Griffin

Alan Henderson

Andrei Kirilenko

Antoine Walker

Antonio Daniels

Brendan Haywood

Chris Crawford

Cuttino Mobley

Dale Davis

Damon Stoudamire

Danny Fortson

Darius Songaila

Darrell Armstrong

DeSagana Diop

DeShawn Stevenson

Donyell Marshall

Eddie Jones

Eddy Curry

Gary Payton

Gerald Wallace

Glenn Robinson

Grant Hill

Greg Ostertag

Jalen Rose

Jamaal Tinsley

Jamal Mashburn

Jason Kapono

Joe Johnson

Keith Van Horn

Kerry Kittles

Kwame Brown

Larry Hughes

Latrell Sprewell

Luke Walton

Marko Jaric

Michael Redd

Raja Bell

Ray Allen

Robert Traylor

Samuel Dalembert

Scottie Pippen

Shaquille O'Neal

Shareef Abdur-Rahim

Stromile Swift

Tom Gugliotta

Toni Kukoc

Tony Battie

Tony Delk

Tony Parker

Tracy McGrady

Troy Murphy

Tyronn Lue

Tyson Chandler

Udonis Haslem

Vin Baker

Vitaly Potapenko

Vladimir Radmanovic

Wesley Person

Willie Green

Zach Randolph

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

         

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