November 2 PRESEASON NOTES
Indiana placed Jermaine O'Neal (pain in left foot), Jeff Foster
(arthroscopic surgery right hip), and Anthony Johnson (broken bone right
hand) on the IR. I was not expecting O’Neal to be put on the IR although I
was aware of his foot issue. This leaves Indiana without their starting
center and power forward for at least 5 games. Scott Pollard may have some
use in deep leagues in the beginning of the season for teams needing rebounds
and possibly Austin Croshere. Jamaal Tinsley should play a healthy amount of
minutes with his backup out.
The LA Lakers placed Devean George (ankle surgery) on IR. While he is out
Caron Butler will have less competition for playing time.
New Jersey placed Jason Kidd on IR. There is a range in reported return
dates for him from early December until January. We will see soon what the
Nets plan to do in the meantime at PG. Those with Kidd stashed on their
fantasy IL might want to pick up the interim Nets PG.
Speaking of injured point guards, the Jazz placed their starter, Carlos
Arroyo, and his backup, Raul Lopez on the IL. Keith McLeod who had a
preseason A/TO of .85 is a point guard currently on their roster.
Philadelphia placed Glenn Robinson on the IL reportedly with tendinitis in
the left ankle. It is my suspicion he may be there until he is traded which
is at this point is his upside. In the meantime Andre Iguodala gets another
boost in fantasy value.
Toronto placed Alvin Williams on the IL. This should lock in some solid
playing time for Rafer Alston early on.
There is uncertainty about Shaq playing in the first game because of his
strained hamstring.
11/1 PRESEASON NOTES
It was announced unexpectedly that Devin Harris would start for the
Mavericks at point guard with Jason Terry becoming the sixth man. This
implies that Jerry Stackhouse, when healthy, is the seventh man. This news
comes as a disappointment for those who drafted Jason Terry and a bonus for
those who took Devin Harris. If nobody took Devin Harris in your league, go
get him now. Among Harris’ preseason accomplishments was leading the league
in steals.
Chris Kaman will miss the first couple weeks of the season with a sprained
ankle. Chris Wilcox would stand for a couple extra minutes as a result and a
dark horse sleeper would be Mikki Moore (should he make the team) who played
in all 8 preseason games for the Clippers.
Brendan Haywood will miss the first three games of the season due to a
suspension. Kwame Brown and Etan Thomas are other Wizards frontcourt players
to potentially miss the beginning of the season with injuries. Not sure who
will be picking up the slack in the front court but perhaps Michael Ruffin
and Samaki Walker. Don’t think they will have much fantasy value though.
10/30 PRESEASON NOTES
Alonzo Mourning returned to play in a preseason game. While he exceeded
expectations with 12 pts, 5 reb in 19 mins (he also had 8 TO!), I would
recommend against even taking a flyer on him in a draft. Some may have used a
late round pick on the other Nets center, Jason Collins, and Mourning may
serve to remove all fantasy potential from Collins. I am not saying there is
no shot that Mourning has value, but I would not take the risk in less the
price is really small.
Speaking of the Nets, Rodney Buford had a game with 20 pts and 4 treys in
35 minutes while his competition for playing time, Ron Mercer, sat out. If
one of these two emerges with value it will be Buford since he can hit the
trey and get more steals than Mercer. He may be worth taking a flyer on
particularly if you feel your team needs the three point category bolstered.
X-rays on the ankle Carlos Arroyo sprained were negative and the Jazz hope
he will be ready for the season opener.
Interestingly, the Suns opted against picking up their option for next
year on Joe Johnson or to give him an extension. It appears Joe Johnson will
start but this is a sign that Quentin Richardson is the man in the future. So
why don’t the Suns start Richardson now? Johnson may get traded sometime
during the season. This would likely benefit the fantasy value of both
players.
At this time Marquis Daniels should be considered day to day. When he does
return he will start on the bench and have to work his way into the starting
lineup which I believe he will accomplish.
It appears that Kenny Thomas’ scratched cornea is a minor injury (not that
I would ever want one) and I assume he will be ready to start the season.
Matt Harpring has had a strong preseason for the Jazz and appears ready to
bounce back from a tough season. He has shot over 50% FG and averaged 7 rpg,
and 1.4 spg.
I read that Jerry Sloan is unhappy with Mehmet Okur’s conditioning. This
is a very bad piece of news for Okur who has shot less than 40% in the
preseason. Jarron Collins may begin the season as the starter. Okur had
sleeper potential after signing a big contract in the offseason but appears
to have some challenges ahead of him.
Stromile Swift showed the other night what he could do with playing time
getting 24 pts, 7 reb, and 4 bl in 29 min. Swift is a good producer on a per
minutes basis. He is currently playing with a one year contract. His teammate
Earl Watson showed his potential when Jason Williams is out with 12 pts and
12 ast. Watson is a consideration in leagues with over 160 players.
Tim Thomas had a game with 23 pts in 20 minutes. He can tease fantasy
managers like this but will settle into his mediocre production during the
season.
Keep an eye on rookie Kevin Martin in Sacramento. With an injury slowing
Doug Christie and the lack of back court depth on the Kings, he may get some
opportunities to play. Note that Christie will likely be ready to start the
season but will need to get into shape.
Devin Harris had another performance that was impressive with 24 pts
(12-15 FT) in 41 minutes. Additionally, Charles Barkely turned up the heat on
the Harris bandwagon by predicting he would be the rookie of the year. While
he may not be that high on your depth chart in anticipation of a reduced role
on a healthy Mavs roster, I could not argue with the decision to elevate him
a few rounds and take a chance.
Luke Walton has begun to play. He had been slowed by a sprained ankle.
Maciej Lampe had a double double for the Suns. With the foul prone Jake
Voskuhl at the top of the Suns center depth chart, there may be an
opportunity for the young Lampe to emerge this season if he has got some
game.
10/31 PRESEASON NOTES
Robert Trayler dropped 30 pts, 11 reb, and 3 bl on the Toronto Rapters.
This is more of a sign of the poor Raptors interior defense than the
abilities of the reserve Traylor. Those in leagues with daily transactions
and the time to micromanage their teams might want to make sure their front
court players going against the Raptors are activated.
Reggie Miller broke his hand and will be out 4-6 weeks. This is good news
for those who have Stephen Jackson on their team.
Jermaine O’Neal has a strained ligament in his foot. It is not clear if
this will prevent him from starting the season but this is not good news for
a player who has ongoing issues with his back.
Eddie Griffin’s preseason has been far better than expected with 8 ppg,
6.5 rpg, and 1.7 bpg. However he is shooting only 34% FG.
David Wesley played in his first preseason game and may represent the end
of rookie JR Smith’s hopes for fantasy value.
Tony Parker broke off contract talks with the Spurs insuring that he will
have that new contract incentive throughout the season!
Luke Ridnour appears to have won the starting PG position for the Seattle
Supersonics and should be added to the sleeper list. In his recent preseason
game he had 14 pts, 6 ast, and 2 steals in 36 min.
Provided to HoopsKlyce.com by Sandlotshrink.com
2004 NBA Fantasy Sleepers
by Bob Radl, Staff Writer
NBA training camps opened this past week. Even a casual observer of the
NBA is aware of the top names in the sport. The staff at the Sandlot Shrink
would like to present our annual group of sleepers and some additional long
shot sleepers. These are players that you should target for the middle or
late rounds of the draft. Fantasy drafts are won in the middle and late
rounds. Here are a few names to consider. The players are listed in
alphabetical order at each position.
CENTER
1. Mark Blount, Boston, He came on strong at the end of thee last campaign
when he averaged 10.9 boards, 14.1 points and over 60% from the field in the
last 20 games of the 2003-2004 season. Blount is also a good one on one
defender.
2. Eddie Curry, Chicago, Curry appears to finally have committed himself
to some strenuous off-season conditioning. He participated in the Bulls
voluntary workouts for the first time this off-season. Curry has very good
offensive moves in the low post, but needs to improve his defensive skills.
If motivated, he could easily become a top-flight center.
2. Samuel Dalembert, Philadelphia, He still has a raw offensive game that
needs to be developed. He finally earned decent minutes over the last ten
games when he averaged 12.o points, 12.3 rebounds and 3.9 blocks. He could be
a cheaper version of Ben Wallace. He makes for a nice pick in dynasty
leagues.
3. Adonal Foyle, Golden State, Foyle received a very nice contract from
the warriors who love his defensive skills. He should see major minutes with
the departure of Erick Dampier to Dallas. Foyle will not score much but will
contribute very well in boards and blocks.
4. Nzar Mohammed, New York, Mohammed has the inside track on the center
slot in the Big Apple. He signed a huge contract with the Knicks. He could
post some double doubles and be a cheap source of boards in deeper leagues.
He will need to hold off Vin Baker at center.
5. Mehmet Okur, Utah, He played very little last year in Motown under
Larry Brown. Okur could blossom this season in Utah as he is slated to start.
He has all of the qualities of a European center, good passer, mobile and a
nice touch out to 15 feet. He is also a good offensive rebounder.
FORWARD
1. Chris Bosh, Toronto, Bosh is only 20 years old as he enters his second
season with the Raptors. The arrival of rookie center Rafael Arauju will
allow Bosh to play at his more natural position of PF. He still needs to get
bigger and stronger, but could be a real star in a few years. He is nice
player to stash away in a dynasty league. Bosh may also qualify for center in
some leagues.
2. Kwame Brown, Washington, Some NBA scribes have considered Kwame to be a
major bust during his short three stint in the league. He is only 22 years
old with tons of talent. He has shown steady improvement in each of his three
seasons. He could easily bump his scoring average up to close to 14 or 15
points per game this year. Brown will miss the start of the season due to a
broken bone in his foot.
3. Al Harrington, Atlanta, Harrington was stuck on the bench for too long
in Indiana. He will have a chance to shine in Atlanta where he will be one of
the go to guys along with Antoine Walker. He did start 15 games for the
Pacers last season and averaged 14.6 points, 6.7 boards, 2.1 assists and 1.3
steals. He will contribute in most categories for the hawks.
4. Antawn Jamison, Washington, Jamison was relegated to the 6th man role
in Dallas last year. He is once again reunited with Gilbert Arenas who was
his running mate during his very productive time in Golden State. He will one
of the focal points of the Wizards offense and could easily average over 20
points a game.
5. Troy Murphy, Golden State, Murphy's 2003-2004 campaign was more or less
lost due to injury. He had a breakout year the season before. Some fantasy
managers may have forgotten about him. He could average close to ten boards
per game and has some offensive upside to his game.
6. Gerald Wallace, Charlotte, Wallace appears to be the best offensive
threat on the Bobcats expansion roster. He never received much playing time
in Sacramento. He never averaged more than 12 minutes per game during his
three years in Sacramento. No one really knows what he can as a full time
player. Wallace is only 22 years old and was once considered to be the best
high school basketball player in the country.
GUARDS
1. Rafer Alston, Toronto, Alston signed with the Raptors in the off-season
to become their staring point guard. He averaged 12.2 points, 5.7 assists and
1.7 steals while hitting 58 treys while starting 28 games for the Heat last
year. Questions still exist about his durability for an entire NBA season.
2. Kenny Anderson, Atlanta, The veteran Anderson is the favorite to win
the starting PG job in Atlanta. He could be a nice source of assists late in
your draft as long as he can remain healthy and hold onto the job.
3. Marquis Daniels, Dallas, Daniels played extremely well late last years
for the Mavs. He averaged 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.7
steals in 15 starts last year. Daniels did not play as well as expected
during this year's summer league play. He also is faced with a long jam at
the guard and small forward slots in Dallas. Daniels may qualify for a
forward position in many leagues also. He does make for an excellent keeper
league pick.
4. Willie Green, Philadelphia, Green inherited the SG slot in Philadelphia
over the summer when the Sixers moved Eric Snow to the Cavaliers. Green is a
real gunner and a bit small for the off-guard.
5. Kirk Hinrich, Chicago, Hinrich came out of the gates slow last year due
to injury and illness. He showed vast improvement to become one of the best
young players on the Bulls roster by the end of the season. He averaged 13.4
points, 7.7 assists and 1.6 steals during the second half of the 2003-2004
season.
Listed below are an additional group of players that would have to be
considered "long shots" for this year in terms of fantasy potential. Most of
these players will be drafted in leagues where there are at least 150 to 200
players drafted. Most NBA players need to average 25 to 30 minutes per game
to have viable fantasy value. These players are also listed in alphabetical
order only.
1. Speedy Claxton, Golden State, Claxton showed his stuff in the second
half of last year when he averaged 13.6 points and 5.3 assists in 29 starts.
Questions about his durability still linger as the Warriors signed Derek
Fisher in the off-season.
2. Grant Hill, Orlando, Hill has only played in 47 games over the last
three seasons. If he were healthy, Hill would be a top-flight draft choice.
Given his injury history, he will most likely be reduced to 20+ minutes per
game.
3. Drew Gooden, Cleveland, Gooden has the task of replacing All-Star
Carlos Boozer at PF for the Cavaliers. Gooden needs to live up to his high
draft status as the 4th pick of the 2002 draft. He needs to work on his
defense and rebounding, but has all of the tools and potential needed to
succeed. Paul Silas may be able to turn him into another rebounding machine.
4. Jason Hart/Brevin Knight, Charlotte, Both Hart and Knight are sleepers
for some cheap assists as long as they can hold down the starting job for the
expansion Bobcats. Hart appears to have the inside track right now. If they
split time, this will diminish each of their respective values.
5. Udonis Haslem, Miami, Haslem played his way into the Heat's starting
lineup late last year. If he can nail down the starting PF position, he would
benefit from the double and triple teams that Shaq Daddy will see. He could
be a nice source of boards deep in your draft.
6. Jason Kapano, Charlotte, Kapano has a chance to see significant playing
time this year in Charlotte. He could easily average around 10 points per
game and may hit in excess of 100 treys if he plays enough. Watch his playing
time closely in the pre-season.
7. Nenad Kristic, New Jersey, The Nets first round pick from 2002 should
see significant playing time as a NBA rookie. He will need to bulk up some to
adapt to the NBA game. He has drawn comparisons to a young Vlade Divac and
makes for a great dynasty league pick.
8. Jeff McInnis/Eric Snow, Cleveland, The winner of the point guard battle
in Cleveland will be a nice source of cheap assists. If they split time,
their fantasy value will decline accordingly.
9. Rodney Rogers, New Orleans, Rogers stands to inherit the starting small
forward slot in New Orleans after Monster Mash was lost for the year. Some
fantasy managers may overlook him, but Rogers could post decent numbers if he
can withstand the rigors of starting for an entire season at age 33.
10. Aaron Williams, New Jersey, Williams may inherit the PF slot in New
Jersey after Kenyon Martin bolted to Denver. His main competition will be
rookie Nenad Kristic, their first round pick from 2002. He did average just
over 10 points and 8.1 rebounds in seven starts last year. If he can nail
down the starting job, he makes for a snare late in the draft. Williams may
also qualify for center in some leagues.
11. Zaza Pachula, Milwaukee, Pachula saw very little playing time in
Orlando last year. The Bucks will give him a chance to win the starting job
as their center. If he can nail down the job, he could be a nice round draft
choice for some double doubles.
12. Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando, Hedo finally had a chance to play some
significant minutes in Orlando late last year. He averaged 13.8 points, 5.5
boards, 2.2 assists and 1.3 steals while nailing 55 treys in 25 games where
he logged 30 minutes or more. If he can see enough minutes at the SF slot,
Hedo could easily hit 130 to 150 treys over a full season.
10/28 PRESEASON NOTES
I have made some adjustments to the Sixers based on the recent starting
lineup announcement. I reduced the playing time projections for Robinson and
Dalembert. I did not increase the named starters much since I don't think
they are a lock to start the whole season. So in that respect I am being
conservative. The announcement adds some uncertainty to the Sixers. It could
end up making Willie Green and Sammy Dalembert MORE of a steal if it scares
some owners off now and then they end up as a starter after a couple weeks.
I am in a league where all the managers wrote a paragraph for each pick
they made in a draft and I think the writeups are a good source of info in
many instances on players. To read them go to
http://rotoguru1.com/cgi-bin/mb/hoop/10759.shtml.
From the Dallas Morning News – Sixth man Jerry Stackhouse declared that he
wouldn't be ready for next week's opener against Sacramento. The veteran
guard has missed the last five games with a right thigh contusion and won't
take the court when the Mavericks close the preseason against the Kings
tonight at American Airlines Center."I'm going to be cautious with it because
I don't want it to be something dragging on for the whole season," said
Stackhouse, who missed 54 games last season because of surgery on his right
knee. "I'd rather get it taken care of, let it heal up, while it's still
early in the season."
Perhaps it will be more of the same from Stackhouse this year in terms of
missing games with injury. This will benefit Josh Howard who could end up
with more minutes than initially thought at the beginning of the preseason.
Also from the Dallas Morning News – “Josh Howard appeared to be the odd
swingman out in the team's rotation at shooting guard and small forward.
Nelson planned to bring him off the bench. But he's had a good camp,
averaging 11.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists, and may have earned a
starting spot to open the season.” Marquis Daniels has not practiced yet and
Finley is slowed by a strained hamstring.
Brand returned last night after missing a couple games with soreness in
his knee that had surgery.
Chris Kaman left last nights game with an ankle sprain after playing a
couple minutes. I will look for reports on his prognosis.
Jamaal Tinsley’s backup Anthony Johnson will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken
hand. This could translate into some extra playing time for Tinsley. Eddie
Gill will be the backup now.
Gary Payton has a broken thumb but is not expected to miss any games.
Dwight Howard had 14 pts and 13 rebs last night. He has shown more promise
in the preseason than Okafor although Okafor did score 15 pts last night.
Houston was one of the few teams that last night played a rotation that
appeared to resemble what we might see in the regular season. It included
Charlie Ward playing 30 minutes and getting 11 pts, 5 ast, and 4 st.
10/27 PRESEASON NOTES
Taken from the NY Post regarding Jason Kidd.
“Jason Kidd is hopeful he'll get a green light today. Kidd, coming off
left knee microfracture surgery, is scheduled for his regular visit with
specialist Dr. David Altchek and the All-World point guard anticipates
getting a schedule to begin his on-court work.
"I'm feeling really good, had some great workouts," Kidd said last night,
admitting he could be "running by the first [Monday]. Right now, we've been
walking but going pretty hard at a good pace. I'm hopeful we get good news."
I will resist the temptation to increase his games projection just yet.
From the LA Times.
Kerry Kittles, the Clippers' most significant off-season pickup, has told
teammates he probably won't play before Thanksgiving.…Kittles' absence
probably will result in more playing time and increased responsibility for
rookie Shaun Livingston, the first true point guard to jump directly from
high school to the NBA and the fourth pick in the June draft. "I feel real
good about where Shaun is, as far as his development," said Dunleavy, who
probably will start Corey Maggette in the backcourt alongside point guard
Marko Jaric, with Bobby Simmons filling in at small forward. "He's so much
further ahead defensively than I could have hoped….
Based on this, why not try last round pick (after 140) on Bobby Simmons
for some early season work. He has put up respectable numbers in the
preseason including 1.7 spg.
Jim O’Brien announced that his opening night starting lineup will be
Iverson, Kenny Thomas, Marc Jackson, Andre Iguodala, and Aaron Mckie leaving
Willie Green, Samuel Dalembert, and Glen Robinson as reserves. This comes
largely as a surprise but it is my feeling that this lineup will be subject
to change and then the only sure thing is Iverson and Thomas starting. But
for now, I will back down projections for Robinson, Dalembert, and Green a
bit just to be safe. I am hesitant to give much of an increase to the
starters named but Jackson certainly becomes more attractive in leagues
requiring a center.
Theron Smith had 16 pts and 9 reb in 26 minutes in his second preseason
game with the Bobcats.
Jeff Foster will be out 4-6 weeks with an injury. Scott Pollard will see
more playing time but probably not enough to have fantasy value in most
leagues.
Ron Artest had 35 pts and 4 steals.
Ron Mercer had 30 points on 12-18 FG. If he gets that many shots off in
the regular season he may be worth adding to your roster.
Rodney White had 25 pts and 4 st in 33 min however he probably won’t have
much value in the regular season. He might be a threat to the playing time of
Voshon Lenard.
The Suns started Jake Voskuhl at center. Joe Johnson played 32 minutes as
a starter and Quentin Richardson played 20 min as a reserve.
10/26 PRESEASON NOTES
This is from the Dallas Morning News “Michael Finley has missed two
preseason games to rest his left hamstring, and his injury should be the most
worrisome of the Mavericks' many ailments. Finley no longer is the iron man
who once went six seasons without missing a game. He's 32 and has missed
about a month of action each of the last three years. While Marquis Daniels'
ankle was a more severe injury when it happened, he is nine years younger
than Finley, and his recuperative powers would figure to be better.” There
are number of injury issues for the Mavs but one of them does not seem to be
Josh Howard who could end up as a sleeper as a result. I will tone down
Finley’s projections based on this news.
I thought Kirk Hinrich might be somewhat of a sleeper this season but he
seems to be getting a lot of respect in the drafts I have seen. In my draft
he went 25th overall. The ESPN live draft picks has him at 52nd and I
currently have him at 44th for the same categories (PARSB3 fg% ft%). So there
is a little bit of a slip there of 8 places. Last night Hinrich had 32 points
including 5-7 3-pointers and 9-12 FT and 5 assists. By the way, Hinrich was
fourth in the league last year with 3.6 fouls per game so beware if that is a
category in your league.
Eddy Curry is averaging 3.6 TO/gm in only 22 mpg in the preseason. Last
season he averaged 2.4 TO/gm.
Brendan Haywood had 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks. He could be
shaping up to be a sleeper with injuries to other Wizards front court
players.
Drew Gooden had 25 points including 10-15 FG, 10 rebounds, and 3 steals.
Nick Collison had 14 points and 9 rebounds. He has been relatively quiet
in the preseason.
To see a good summary of preseason stats visit
http://www.dougstats.com/. However I just
noticed that Nick Collison is not listed there.
10/25 PRESEASON NOTES
So far in the preseason Amare Stoudemire is projecting to make13 trips to
the free throw line for every 36 minutes of play and making 69% of them. If
he continues at this rate in the regular season it could make a negative
impact on the FT% of his owners.
In six preseason games Jamal Crawford is averaging 29.2 mpg, 40% FG
including 9-28 3 pointers, 14.5 ppg, and 1.7 spg. The following was reported
in the New York Daily News regarding Allan Houston, “Allan Houston's status
for the Nov. 3 season opener is no different today than it was eight months
ago. Although Houston reported last night that his sore left knee is
improving, both he and coach Lenny Wilkens hinted that Houston probably will
not be available when the Knicks open the 2004-05 season against the
Minnesota Timberwolves in nine days.” The same article indicates that if
Houston is healthy he would be the starter over Jamal Crawford.
After a relatively slow start in the preseason, Jason Kapono has had some
better games including 19 points yesterday. In the preseason though, he is
only 1-9 for three pointers. Many fantasy owners are putting a lot of hopes
on Primoz Brezec as a sleeper center. But realize he is largely unproven and
last night his 4 pts and 1 reb in 32 minutes shows that there may be some
rough nights ahead. Try not to overvalue him too much in your draft
considering his risk of lack of experience.
In five preseason games the Wizards second year player Jarvis Hayes is
averaging 16.6 ppg and 2 steals. He could be sleeper for the steal category.
Bobby Simmons has had a nice preseason for the Clippers and is second in
scoring to Corey Magette. But this will not likely extend into the regular
season when Elton Brand and Kerry Kittles return
Caron Butler played despite injuring his finger using a splint. He was
3-10 FG.
Both Etan Thomas and Kwame Brown may miss the beginning of the season.
Brown with an injured foot and Thomas with an abdominal strain. This could
elevate the early season playing time of Brendan Haywood.
10/24 PRESEASON NOTES
I have seen conflicting reports regarding Marquis Daniels as to whether he
was slotted to start for the Mavericks or not. However now the issue with him
is the impact that his sprained ankle may have on him starting the season.
While I feel he was slated to be the starter, I have backed down his
projections because of his sprained ankle. Meanwhile, rookie Devin Harris
continues to be impressive with 20 pts and 5 steals yesterday.
Patricia Bender, a Mavs expert (
http://www.dfw.net/~patricia/)
Said the following to me via email today; “Marquis had a serious sprained
ankle during the summer and still hasn't been cleared to practice. Devin is
looking really good so far (especially for a rookie) and will be the backup
point behind Jason Terry. Devin started last night (the Milwaukee game) due
to it being his homecoming.
Keep an eye for DJ Mbenga. It's looking like he'll be the backup center,
instead of spending the year tied to the bench as a project player. He is
still raw, but can move "like a gazelle", loves to swat, and is a quick
learner.”
As a follow-up to the discussion of Eric Snow and Jeff McInniss…as I see
Eric Snow drifting to a backup point guard role, the shooting guard position
will open up for the Cavs. Candidates are Lucious Harris and Dejuan Wagner.
Harris used to put up nice numbers when given a chance for the Nets but
missed much of last year with a sprained ankle. I would consider him a
leading candidate. Note however that Wagner is 6 for 7 from three point land
in the preseason!
At one time I thought Marcus Banks might be a sleeper particularly if Gary
Payton did not show up in Boston. But it appears now he is out of favor with
Doc Rivers and will struggle to get even backup minutes.
Jameer Nelson had 11 points and 7 assists last night. He has a relatively
high profile for a non-lottery rookie from his NCAA exposure. He has played
in all 6 Magic preseason game but is shooting just 37% from the field. In 18
mpg he is averaging 2.7 apg. He should continue to pass more and shoot less
as he did last night.
Zorin Planinic had 13 pts and 7 ast for the Nets last night. Like Nelson
he needs to work on his FG% and try to focus more on passing. However, I like
his game as a 6-7 point guard.
Erick Dampier had 14 points including 5-7 FG and 11 rebounds. In 4
preseason games he has averaged in 26.5 mpg, 12 pts, 8 reb, and 1 bl. It will
be interesting to see how he produces after signing a big contract. I toned
down his per minute stats to account for the new contract let down and the
fact he goes to a better team this season.
Tyson Chandler played only 9 minutes with a stomach virus. Recall he
missed a number of games before with a digestive disorder of some sorts.
Note that Eddie Griffin is suspended by the NBA for the first three games
of the season for pleading guilty to something. Check out how he does when he
comes back. In the preseason he has been the third leading rebounder for the
Wolves.
I have seen news that Mike Miller’s back may be a chronic problem this
season. This would be good news for those who own other Grizzlies such as
Bonzi Wells who has had some nice preseason games.
10/23 PRESEASON NOTES
The Blazer played what appeared to be a regular season rotation against
the Bobcats last night. Abdur-Rahim and Miles split time at SF with 25 min
and 23 min. Not good news at this point for their owners.
The Bobcats also seemed to give a decent preview of their regular season
lineup. Brevin Knight and Jason Hart will likely split time at the PG spot.
Knight is the type of player who does not need a whole lot of playing time to
have some fantasy value for steals although he did not have any last night.
Gerald Wallace was getting their first as he had 8 steals!
Marcus Camby missed the game last night because his back was ‘sore’.
Expect a lot of missed games from him after recently signing a new contract.
With Jarvis Hayes out, Jared Jeffries started for the Wizards but did
little in his 28 minutes to warrant additional consideration. If Jeffries
does not show much in the preseason, it could translate into heavier minutes
for Hayes during the regular season.
Ben Wallace played in his first preseason game and had 10 pts, 5 reb, and
0 blocks in 21 minutes. It is a good sign that he is playing again and
getting back into shape.
Wally Szczerbiak had 20 pts on 10-15 FG in 33 minutes. Wally historically
has been exceptional in the FG% category.
Kirilenko in 27 min had 13 pts, 7 reb, 7 ast, 4 bl, and 3 st! That is what
makes him a first round pick.
Caron Butler partially tore the tendon in his right pinky in the second
quarter of last nights game. It appears he will try to play with a splint.
Marquis Daniels may miss the beginning of the season with a sprained
ankle.
10/22 PRESEASON NOTES
With Manu Ginobili sitting out (no injury), Devin Brown had 17 pts, 9 reb,
and 3 stl. The Spurs like the third year player but he will likely not have
much fantasy value during the regular season unless Ginobili or Barry get
hurt.
Marc Jackson has had a very strong preseason for the Sixers contributing
pts, reb, and good percentages from the field and the FT line. Last night he
had 13 pts and 7 reb in only 17 minutes. However he is not expected at this
time to play heavy minutes in the regular season. But if you can get him late
and store him on your bench (after 120 players are taken) he certainly has an
upside based on his preseason.
Zach Randolf had 34 pts and 17 reb in 39 minutes. However his cumulative
total of assists, steals, and blocks was only 1. He is the type of player
with strengths in points and rebounds who will likely always be picked by
someone else before he surfaces to the top of my depth chart.
Loren Woods has blocked 8 shots in 3 preseason games despite playing
limited minutes.
Rookie Shaun Livingston was given a start at PG by the Clippers but had 0
assists in 28 minutes and had no rebounds. He did score 10 points but the
young player will likely not have much value this season.
Grant Hill continues to log minutes in the preseason and I have not heard
any negative reports about his ankle. He does seem a bit tentative early on
as he concentrates on getting to know his teammates.
Rookie Dwight Howard registered a double double and early on looks as if
may have more value than Okafor. Of course the wildcard for him will be how
he performs in the second half of the season. Those with Howard might
consider trading him away during the first half of the season if he is doing
well. I know that would be hard to do and he might even end up being strong
like Amare Stoudemire was the entire season his rookie year.
In terms of FG%, Mike James is having a rough preseason and went 1-7 FG
last night. He is slated to start for the Bucks while TJ Ford heals but if
his FG% remains poor Maurice Williams might see more playing time at PG.
However Williams’ FG% hasn’t been much better! Both have had similar assist
and TO per minute numbers.
The Grizzlies haven’t given much indication of what their playing rotation
will be next season. It will likely be similar to last year with EVERYONE
playing some. In my draft, several of the Grizzlies (Battier, Miller, Wells,
Cardinal) remain unpicked late and if either of them actually played more
than 30 mpg they would be a tremendous steal.
Dallas rookie Devin Harris had his second consecutive impressive outing
with 10 pts, 7 ast, 3 st, 2 bl, and 2 treys in 26 minutes. If he continues
this play in the regular season he may cut into the playing time of starter
Jason Terry. Realize in the preseason he may be going against lesser quality
players.
Luol Deng had 20 pts in 31 minutes including 3 treys. Teammate Ben Gordon
continues to struggle from the field going 3-12 FG last night.
Chris Mihm had 9 pts, 13 reb, and 2 bl in 40 minutes. Considering his
preseason performances and the current back injury to Divac, he should be
considered a sleeper. I will increase his projections.
10/21 PRESEASON NOTES
Ben Wallace has not played in the preseason as he continues to recover
from an appendix surgery that caused him to lose weight in the offseason. He
may start slow during the regular season presenting an opportunity to trade
for him at a discount.
It is fairly apparent already that the Hawks have Antoine Walker and Al
Harrington and not much else.
It is my gut feeling at this stage that it will be Jeff McInnis retaining
most of his fantasy value from last season while Eric Snow drifts into more
of a reserve role. Snow is not inclined to shoot much and McInnis can handle
all the point guard duties.
Drew Gooden continues to pull down a lot of rebs with 14 in his most
recent game.
With a starting lineup of Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson,
Steve Nash, and Shawn Marion, the Suns blew out the Jazz. This is good news
for owners of Johnson and Richardson who want to see both on the court at the
same time rather than one backing up the other.
10/20 Preseason Notes
The following article regarding Rashard Lewis' foot injury is not very
positive. I am going to lower his games played projections until he plays in
a preseason game. Vladimir Radmanovic would stand to benefit if Lewis is out.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/basketball/195949_sonx20.html
In three preseason games Al Harrington is averaging 14 pts, 8 reb, and 1.7
steals. The steal numbers are impressive for him as he has averaged only
0.8 spg in his career. I expect him to be around 1 spg this season.
In three preseason games potential sleeper Primoz Brezec is averaging 19
pts, 9 reb, and 1.3 bls. I will revisit his projections. In the meantime, if
you have had your draft consider picking him up as a free agent.
Gerald Wallace is averaging 18 pts and 6 reb over 3 games. Note that he
does not have three point range.
Okafor has blocked only 1 shot in three preseason games.
Positive comments have been made by the Sixers coach about Andre Iguodala'
prospects for playing time. Iguodala will be taken after around 120
players in most drafts. When you get to this stage of the draft you do not
always stick to the top player on your chart if it seems like they don't have
much upward potential. For example a player like Reggie Miller. Don't be
afraid to drop down and take a shot at a player like Iguodala.
Zoran Planinic had 14 pts, 7 reb, and 5 ast (although a ton of TO's also).
He is another player perhaps worth taking a flyer on and a he is a
possible source of the coveted assist category. Note his value goes away when
Kidd returns.
Rookie JR Smith is averaging 14 ppg in four preseason games (23 mpg). He
has also hit 9 treys.
Stephen Jackson had 29 pts in 31 minutes. He had been discounted because
of potential competition from Reggie Miller.
Andres Nocioni and Luol Deng are both having strong preseasons for the
Bulls. Yesterday Deng had 18 pts, 12 reb, and 3 treys. Nocioni had 20 pts,
12 reb and 2 bl. Ben Gordon on the other hand is only 6-30 FG in the
preseason. I recently lowered his FG% projections.
Damon Jones, PG Miami Heat, is averaging 11 pts, 5 ast, and 2 treys in the
preseason. He has sleeper potential with Rafer Alston gone to Toronto as the
best pure PG for the Heat.
With Marquis Daniels out, Dallas rookie Devin Harris had 16 pts, 6 ast, 5
st, and 2 bl! This is an eye opening performance for him.
In 4 preseason games, Derek Fisher is leading Golden State in scoring at
16 ppg including 25-26 FT. Speedy Claxton has been out with a groin strain.
With Elton Brand out, Chris Wilcox had 22 pts in 28 min.
Caron Butler had 18 pts, 6 reb, 3 st, and 2 bl in 33 min.
With Vlade Divac out, Chris Mihm blocked 8 shots in his first two
preseason games.
10/19 PRESEASON NOTES
The following article discusses the center situation in Toronto. It
speaks highly of potential sleeper Chris Bosh. Just about everything I
have read about Bosh has been very positive.
http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/TorontoSun/Sports/2004/10/19/675712.html
There were two preseason games yesterday.
Drew Gooden had 10 pts, 15 reb, and 2 bl in 24 min. Gooden is once
again listed as a potential sleeper this year. This is despite how he
fell short last season when I had also thought he would emerge. So it
was with much thought that I decided to put him on the list again this
season. This brief performance at least supports my thoughts of his
potential. His failure last year gave me a personal sting as he was on
my team but I actually took him again this year at this risk of being
bitten twice. The difference this year is that he really does not have
serious competition for regular playing time.
Jeff McInnis was active offensively with 22 pts in 24 minutes. The jury
is still out on his regular season playing time.
New Jersey turned in a number of individual ugly box scores with no
player scoring in double figures and 36% team shooting. The Nets as a
team will probably have the fewest number of players active on fantasy
rosters.
Which reminds me to point out that I sum up the total minutes for each
team in your rankings to use as a check for how I have distributed the
playing time among players on the same team. In my early projections I
noticed I had too many minutes being played by Sixers players and
selectively reduced the playing time of players to have a more realistic
distribution.
On the other had New Jersey had the fewest minutes projected as a team.
In this case I did make some increases, but I think this is an instance
where the team just does not the players with enough value to show up in
the rankings. So I use the tool mostly to lower projections of players
on certain teams.
Antoine Walker was 6-17 FG and 13-16 FT. He will have a number of
similar nights shooting from the field in the regular season. 13-16 FT
is pretty good for him as a career 66% FT shooter. I would not expect
that kind of FT shooting from him much during the regular season. He
typically does not go to the line that often either preferring to spot
up and shoot from long range.
Potential sleeper Rasual Butler had 10 pts and 8 reb in 31 min for
Miami.
OCTOBER 18 PRESEASON NOTES
There have been 80 picks in my expert draft. The top 60 players on the
depth chart are gone and the lowest ranked players taken were Joe Johnson and
Grant Hill. Those two owners though may have been banking on Johnson not
splitting time as much as I have thought with Quentin Richardson and the
other manager is betting on Grant Hill being healthier than I have accounted
for. Both are justifiable. Note Jason Kidd went 74th overall. The league
categories are PARSB3 FT% FG%.
So the results of the draft are so far in my mind a pretty good check of
my depth chart. I get more concerned about the other 11 managers passing on a
player than I do about 1 manager taking a player earlier than I expected in
terms of using the draft as effectively a check of my projections. Once
again… to follow the draft go to
http://rotoguru1.com/php/rihcgrid.php
to read the basis for the managers picks go to
http://rotoguru1.com/cgi-bin/mb/hoop/10736.shtml
There were a number of preseason games last night.
Morris Peterson, who will likely not start, had 26 pts including 3-5
treys.
Rafeal Araujo had 6 pts and 5 fouls in 16 minutes. The Raptors hoped
Araujo would allow Chris Bosh to play PF. However in the preseason it has
been Loren Woods who has been more impressive than Araujo.
In the early goings it appears that Andre Iguodala will be the type that
may not score a lot but still contributes. He had 8 pts, 5 ast, and 3 steals.
Iverson was not available to help get Andre more assists as he was ejected.
With Iverson out, Willie Green had 16 pts in 30 min.
Michael Olowokandi had a much better showing with 11 pts, 12 reb, and 2 bl
in 31 min. The Wolves would gladly take those numbers in the regular season.
Darko Milicic played 25 minutes, perhaps the most he has ever seen in an
NBA game. He had 5 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 1 st, and 2 bl.
Grant Hill had his best game of the preseason with 20 pts, 6 reb, 5 ast, 1
bl, 1 st in 26 min.
I was curious how many shots Kobe would take in his next preseason game
after so many in the previous. I was initially impressed with his restraint
when seeing he took only 10 shots. However then I noticed he went to the FT
19 times meaning he WANTED to shoot a lot more but kept getting fouled. Note
this all translates into him being a fantasy monster although probably not
too popular with his teammates.
Utah finally played their first preseason game. It was tough to find a box
score but I was referred to:
http://www.sltrib.com/jazz/ci_2429903
I am not going to comment much on preseason DNP’s unless it is apparent it
is an injury that will cause the player to miss some of the regular season.
OCTOBER 17 PRESEASON NOTES
We had our first season ending preseason injury. Chris Crawford has a knee
injury that will cause him to miss the entire season. This will add to the
minutes of other Hawk front court players including Antoine Walker, Al
Harrington, Josh Childress, and Boris Diaw. At this time I don’t forsee a
particular players time spiking up as a result of this injury.
As the preseason goes on I will try to get a firm hold of what Brent
Barry’s role on the Spurs will be and in particular if he will have an impact
on the playing time of Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker. In my expert league
draft
http://rotoguru1.com/php/rihcgrid.php
Ginobili slipped quite a bit and I am wondering if the other league
managers are concerned about Brent Barry. Upon reminding myself of the 6 year
$52 million contract he signed in the offseason I took him thinking he has to
continue to play a major role on the team.
Jamal Crawford continues to have a strong preseason for the Knicks. I
think he should continue to play a major role for them even after Allan
Houston returns. Crawford had 25 pts in 25 min yesterday.
The Nets had a starting lineup considerably different than what they had
in their first preseason game. The playing rotation remains uncertain. Rodney
Buford had 19 pts and 3 st.
Clippers rookie Shaun Livingston played 29 min and had 10 pts and only 1
assist.
Hornets rookie JR Smith had another strong preseason game 22 pts and 4
treys. At this time I don’t have projected stats for him. These performances
are coming with the projected started David Wesley out and he will probably
not be getting extended minutes during the season.
Ron Artest had 19 pts and 5 steals in 29 minutes. Artest should once again
be a league leader in the steal category.
Antonio McDyess had 9 rebounds in 19 minutes. Derrick Coleman is also
playing for the Pistons. I lowered slightly the playing time projection for
Rasheed Wallace based on these two apparently being healthy in the preseason.
Wallace did not play last night because of a stiff back. Darko Milicic fouled
out in 19 minutes. Wonder what the Pistons would be like with Carmelo Anthony
on the team.
With Shaq out, Dwayne Wade had 20 pts in 24 minutes along with 4 steals.
Eddie Curry had 21 points in 35 minutes lending support to his claims of
being in shape. Loul Deng made his statement with 17 pts, 7 reb, and 2 st in
19 minutes. Nocioni was 2-10 FG.
Jason Kapono had 17 pts and 5 reb in 30 min for the Bobcats. Okafor had
another mediocre showing. More of this and I will consider lowering his
projections. Potential sleeper Primoz Brezec had 12 pts and 8 reb for the
Bobcats.
Shareef had another strong showing for the Blazers as did his competition
for playing time Darius Miles.
Nene did not play because of a strained hamstring. I presume this is not
serious.
OCTOBER 16 PRESEASON NOTES
There were three games in the NBA last night.
Allen Iverson played 27 minutes of point guard and had 4 assists and 32
pts. For now I will not increase his assists projections.
Potential sleeper Samuel Dalembert had 10 pts, 11 reb, and 5 bl in 23
minutes. Marc Jackson DNP because of a hip flexor.
Potential sleeper Chris Bosh had 15 pts and 8 reb in 20 min.
Rafer Alston, the likely starting PG for Toronto, had 5 ast and 2 st in 16
minutes.
Toronto rookie Rafael Araujo played only 5 minutes. I have lowered his
projections until he shows a little something.
Rookie Dwight Howard had 17 pts and 11 reb.
Grant Hill played for 29 minutes and had 8 pts.
Rookie Jameer Nelson had 17 point but no assists.
Udonis Haslem had 18 pts and 11 reb while Shaq sat out with a sore
hamstring. The Heat have indicated they are just playing it safe with Shaq.
Bulls rookie Andres Nocioni had 15 pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 st, and 1 bl. Here
is an early indication that he can fill out the stat sheet.
Rookie Ben Gordon took 18 shots in 29 minutes and had 13 pts, 5 reb, 6
ast, and 2 st. He made only 4 of his 18 shots.
OCTOBER 15 PRESEASON NOTES
There were several preseason games on Thursday evening. The following are
some notes from those games.
The Nets started Ron Mercer and Zoran Planinic in the backcourt. Mercer
was typically unimpressive at 3-9 FG and did not do much else. Zoran was the
22nd overall pick in the 2003 draft and does not have much of an NBA track
record. He could be starting until Kidd returns. He had 4 ast in 20 min on
Thursday.
Jamal Crawford filled out the stat sheet for the Knicks with 19 pts, 7
reb, and 6 ast. As usual though his FG% was not great at 4-13.
Mike Sweetney had 11 rebounds in 25 min. If Kurt Thomas can spend sometime
as center the Knicks might be able to get extra minutes for Sweetney at the
expense of Nazr Mohammed.
Washington and Charlotte played a double overtime game. Antawn Jamison
played 55 minutes for the Wizards. What is the Wizards coaching thinking by
playing his most established player ridiculous minutes in the first preseason
game against an expansion team while other players he should be evaluating
sit on the bench. The answer? Perhaps sending a message to fantasy managers
around the world the type of minutes and value Jamison will have when the
season counts.
Jarvis Hayes has been real impressive in the preseason. On Thursday he had
31 points, 14 reb, 2 st, and 2 blocks. Of course the double OT games allowed
him to play 49 minutes. The Wizards started Jamison at PF and Hayes at SF.
For Charlotte, Okafor played 34 minutes but had only 4 rebs and 1 bl.
These categories will need to form the core of his fantasy value in the
regular season so this is not a good sign for him.
The Bobcats played what seemed like a regular season game rotation with
Primoz Brezec and Gerald Wallace as standouts. Brezec had 26 pts and 11 reb.
Wallace had a stat-stuffing 26 pts, 12 reb, 5 ast, 2 st, and 1 bl. Lets check
out PB in another game and then add him to the sleeper list.
Potential sleeper Jason Kapono was not impressive.
There were a total of 77 fouls called in the Memphis – Cleveland game!
Lebron was impressive with 25 points in 30 minutes.
Potential sleeper Drew Gooden had 13 pts and 12 reb in 25 minutes. I’m a
little hesitant to tout Gooden too much after how he fell short last season,
but I think his situation is much better this year in Cleveland than it was
in Orlando. Gooden should want to help Cleveland to forget about Boozer-gate.
Michael Olowokandi registered 6 fouls and 5 TO in only 16 minutes. That
must have been ugly to witness.
Eddie Griffin had his second encouraging game. I don’t even have stats
projected for Griffin right now but will take care of that soon. For now use
your judgment and consider around the 150 player mark if you like taking
risks.
Kenny Anderson had a solid game as the Hawks point guard with 13 pts, 5
ast, 7 reb, and 2 st.
Zaza Pachuia in Milwaukee is another to add to the watch list as a
candidate to start for the Bucks. He had 12 pts and 7 reb on Thursday.
Earl Boykins had a fine game and serves as a menace to the fantasy value
of the starter Andre Miller if he keeps it up.
Troy Murphy continues to look good with a 17 pt and 11 reb performance.
OCTOBER 14 PRESEASON NOTES
The Rockets played the Kings this morning in China. Of significance was
the fact that Chris Webber played. He had 14 pts and 11 reb in 24 minutes. I
will look for news on how his knee reacts to this run.
Mike Bibby took 5 three point shots making 3 of them. I recently have been
debating lowering his three point projections. Last year he attempted a
6-year career high 4.6 treys per game. However this preseason game is an
indication he plans to continue firing from long range. Note that Bobby
Jackson and Doug Christie did not play due to injuries.
Rookie Josh Childress played 17 minutes and had 3 pts and 5 fouls.
Mark Blount was 12-13 FT. He typically has not made a significant number
of trips to the FT line.
Rookie JR Smith (18th overall pick for the Hornets) played with David
Wesley sidelined with an injury. He had 19 pts including 4 treys. I will put
him on my watch list.
Jerry Stackhouse looked healthy scoring 20 pts in 31 minutes including his
customary strong contributions from the FT line.
Eddie Griffin took 12 shots in 12 minutes including no three point
attempts. In the past, he took more three point attempts than he should have.
He also block 3 shots. I will continue to monitor him in the preseason.
Ten players played 21-22 minutes for the Bucks including Desmond Mason who
had 26 points including 12-12 from the FT line. Last season Mason averaged a
healthy 5.7 FT att per game.
Potential sleeper Chris Wilcox had 11 pts and 8 reb in 24 min before
fouling out. Chris Kaman did not play in this game because of a sore shin.
Amare Stoudamire made 16 trips to the FT line but made only 10 of them for
63%. In his first two seasons he has shot 66% and 71%. This is one of the few
weaknesses in his game.
Darius Miles was 0-11 FG. However last season in 42 games for Portland he
did shoot 52.6% so this you would think was just a bad luck night.
10/13 PRESEASON NOTES
There were four preseason games last night.
Dwight Howard had an impressive debut with 18 pts and 9 reb in 31 minutes
as a starter. He did not block any shots however. The majority of the Magic
shots were taken by Francis, Mobley, and Howard, a trend that could extend
into the season.
Grant Hill played for 16 minutes as a starter. Hill’s competition for
playing time, Hedo Turkoglu was 6-8 FG for 15 pts.
Paul Pierce was 7-11 from the field. He is a career 43.2% shooter but shot
only 40.2% last season which was the third consecutive season where his FG%
was lower than the season before. It would not surprise me to see that FG%
improve playing alongside Gary Payton.
The Sixers starting lineup had Brian Skinner in it. I may back down
Dalembert’s projections if indeed he will not be a starter. However the
Sixers also started McKie who I believe will not start in the regular season.
Marc Jackson had 21 points in only 14 minutes. He missed much of last
season with an injured finger and was mired on benches before that. I would
consider him a sleeper were it not for Dalembert and Skinner.
Jarvis Hayes scored 23 points and had somewhere between 3 to 5 steals
depending on what box score you are looking at…
Raef LaFrentz played 22 minutes. We will see how his knee handles
subsequent games.
Ricky Davis may be a starter at SF for the Celtics this season. This could
result in an increase in his playing time projections. Last season he
averaged 29.4 mpg for the Celtics.
Rookie guard Tony Allen had 5 steals for the Celtics.
Pau Gasol had 12 pts and 10 reb for Memphis. He averaged only 31.5 mpg
last season but got the big bucks in the offseason. Memphis cutting him loose
to play 35-40 represents an upside for him.
If Kobe takes 21 shots (13 three point attempts!) in a preseason game for
35 points, imagine what happens when the games count. No Shaq + no Phil
Jackson + no prison = Kobe goes crazy. It would not surprise me to see him
have more fantasy value than Kevin Garnett this season.
Potential sleeper Nick Collison played 21 min for the Sonics and fouled
out with 6 points.
Antonio Daniels had an impressive 7 assists and 1 TO however his
competition Luke Ridnour had 7 assists and 0 TO.
The following suggestion was sent in by a subscriber.
Since my league picks 10 supplemental players, I try to identify one or
two players that currently have little to no value but are an injury away to
the player ahead of them in the depth charts from having significant value
and select them with my last supplemental picks. Obviously, I try to focus on
the backups to those players that are injury prone but healthy at the
beginning of the season (a Marcus Camby type). If the inevitable happens and
that guy goes down, I've hit the jackpot. If not, I've only wasted a pick on
a player that likely would not crack my lineup anyway.
I sometimes use a variation of this strategy and pick backups to players
that I have in my starting lineup. This gives some protection against the
loss of production if the starter gets hurt. An example would be to take
Marcus Banks if Gary Payton is on your team. Banks was originally traded to
the Lakers but came back as compensation for Payton not showing up for his
physical.
OCTOBER 12 PRESEASON NOTES
It is mentioned in this article that the Knicks feel Michael Sweetney is
ready to start. They are trying to trade away starter Kurt Thomas which is
what it would take to free up minutes for Sweetney.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/story/241158p-206846c.html
6’-11” Wizards small forward Jared Jeffries is a potential sleeper this
season. He happened to lead the Wizards in playing time last night with 28
minutes. However with Jarvis Hayes and Antawn Jamison, the Wizards are
crowded at his position. If he is able to play some PF he will have more
opportunities early on with Kwame Brown out. Jeffries quietly played in all
82 games last season and is mentioned in the following sleeper article.
http://fantasysports.yahoo.com/analysis/news?slug=bf-nbasleepers-se&prov=yhoo&type=lgns&league=fantasy/nba
Jermaine O’Neal did not play last night due to a sprained foot. I will
monitor news to try to determine the severity of the injury.
Also during the preseason, I will attempt to determine how the Pacers plan
to distribute minutes between Stephen Jackson and Reggie Miller. Reggie is
past his prime and his main impact is to potentially prevent Jackson from
being a desirable fantasy player (as he was last season).
I am currently participating in an expert draft. You can follow the picks
by going to
http://rotoguru1.com/php/rihcgrid.php
The ways things worked out, owners were randomly given numbers 1 thru 12.
The owner with #1 got to pick his draft position. I had 12 and therefore had
to take the draft spot not taken by the other 11 owners. That was the 12th
pick. I don’t think it really puts me at any distinct disadvantage in that I
at least get to have 2 of the first 13 picks.
OCTOBER 11, PRESEASON NOTES
The first two preseason games were played last night. Box scores may be
found at
www.nba.com.
Of note from last night was that Chris Webber did not play because of
swelling in his knee. Of concern is the following quote from the Sac. Bee.
“…the greater likelihood is that Webber's knee problems will be persistent
and probably chronic.” Based on Webber’s history and what we already see
early in the preseason, I encourage you to let Webber go to someone else’s
team. Chances are another manager will take Webber before he appears at the
top of your depth chart.
http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/story/11054364p-11971217c.html
ESPN.com published a mock draft at -
http://games.espn.go.com/content/fba/2005/story?id=1896384
In the draft Webber went 24th overall which I would consider a risky pick.
At the same time Gasol went 43 and Carmelo went 48! I think I would want
either on my team instead of Webber.
At the same time Jason Kidd went 20th overall. Considering he is
recovering from a major surgery that will have him out until at least
December that seems early. Several other managers made that comment in the
discussion published at –
http://games.espn.go.com/content/fba/2005/story?id=1896622
Consider that the Nets, who will be starting the likes of Ron Mercer, may
be essentially out of playoff contention by December and that Jason Kidd has
already expressed his displeasure With the Nets offseason moves, Kidd may
certainly take his time returning from the injury. Like Webber, I recommend
you let another manager take Kidd.
Shaq looked good in his debut for the Heat (although he was 1-3 FT!). I
usually don’t make real world projections, but am I the only one on the
planet who thinks the Heat will struggle to make the playoffs because of
their lack of depth despite Shaq being apparently in-shape. The Heats
starting lineup included Rasual Butler who may be added to the sleeper list.
Question: Who led the Rockets in shots attempts last night?
A – Tracy McGrady
B - Dikembe Mutombo
C – Calvin Murphy
D - Bostjan Nachbar
answer below
Speedy Claxton did well in his preseason game. I will try to get a further
handle in the preseason how the Warriors plan to split time between Claxton
and Fisher and adjust the projections accordingly. Taking Claxton, regardless
of his preseason performances would involve risk as he has played only an
average of 52 games in his 3-year career.
Adonal Foyle, who gained notoriety in the offseason by signing a
relatively big contract in the offseason despite modest career achievements
missed the game with a strained hamstring. Foyle is an intriguing prospect
considering Dampier has left and his shot blocking ability, but I suspect he
will have issues with durability, particularly after signing such a nice new
contract. Troy Murphy, on the other hand, did suit up to play, although the
Warriors started Dale Davis ahead of him.
OK – the answer to the trivia question was B, Dikembe Mutombo, who took 8
shots compared to 7 for McGrady!
10/9 PRESEASON NOTES
I recently lowered that playing time projection for Josh Howard but kept
him on the sleeper list. It was published that Howard would not be getting
extended playing time as he comes of the bench. However he has good fantasy
qualities and an injury to a starter would make him a desirable player.
One of Richard Hamilton’s goals is to make more three pointers according
to the article from the Detroit Free Press linked to below. Over his 5 year
career he has averaged 0.4 treys per game at 30%. This weakness along with
sub par steal numbers have prevented him from being a top 40 player in your
typical 8 category roto league. I will monitor him in preseason games. If he
is serious about boosting his three point output this is where he should be
practicing.
http://www.freep.com/sports/pistons/pistons9e_20041009.htm
I recently received by email team reports for all of the NBA teams from
the Sporting News. For each team the starting five was projected with a short
blurb next to the name. I copied a few of them down below. I am suspicious
though when the Sixers team report shows Skinner starting over Dalembert.
Also, the Cleveland report indicates Snow starting at PG with McInnis at SG
which contradicts what I read in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. However, there
are some players listed down there that typical fantasy managers may not
realize are prime candidates for a starting role. Examples are Nocioni in
Chicago and Drobnjak in Atlanta.
SF Andres Nocioni Is one of the best players on the best international
team: Argentina.
SG Ben Gordon Will get all the playing time he can handle.
C Peja Drobnjak Is proficient on pick-and-pop plays. Will start for the
Hawks PF Dwight Howard Could be hard-pressed to keep his starting job as he
learns the NBA game.
SF Rasual Butler Inherits the job after the trade of Caron Butler to the
Lakers.
PF Danny Fortson The team hopes he'll provide much-needed toughness.
SG Ron Mercer Definite downgrade from Kittles, especially on defense.
C Chris Kaman Must add consistency and strength.
SF Darius Miles Must show he is worthy of a new long-term contract.
SG Gordan Giricek On his third team in three years, he finally seems to
have found the right fit.
SG Voshon Lenard Nuggets needs him to be a consistent outside threat.
PF Chris Webber His injured knee reportedly still is not 100 percent. Will
he ever be?
PG Chucky Atkins Might not fit in the new uptempo offense.
SF Wally Szczerbiak The T-wolves need at least 70 games out of him.
Another situation that isn’t clear yet and probably won’t be until the
season starts is the role of Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson for the Suns.
I read an article the other week that indicated the Suns will try to give
Amare some time at center this season. This would be the best case scenario
for Joe J and Q.
A subscriber has offered the following auction draft strategy.
“One effective strategy in an auction that I might add is to put out
initial bids of players you don't necessarily want, but which would obviously
be attractive to someone else, such as an injured star or an aging player
past his most productive years. Provided you don't miscalculate and wind up
stuck with him, someone else in the room will wind up with the player and
burn a spot on their roster, leaving the more desirable players on your wish
list still available. I call this the straw dog technique.”
OCTOBER 8 PRESEASON NOTES
The following article discusses the current health of Wally Szczerbiak. He
is similar to Eddy Curry and Glenn Robinson, in that if the rumors of his
health are true he is a candidate to be a sleeper this season. Over the past
two seasons, Wally has played a total of only 80 games. Even if healthy
though, he faces competition in the form of Latrell Sprewell. Wally’s new
teammate is troubled Eddie Griffin who came to the NBA as a high draft pick
but has struggled. While he will not both worth taking a risk in drafting, he
can not be written off totally yet.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpYTg2ZTBwBF9TAzk1ODYxOTQ4BHNlYwN0bQ--?slug=ap-timberwolves-szczerbiak&prov=ap&type=lgns
Potential sleeper Luke Walton sprained his ankle in practice. I will look
for news to determine the severity of the sprain.
Merv Pate of RotoLab.com, recently suggested the following strategies for
participating in an auction draft. The numbers he uses are specific to a
league that has 10 teams and acquires 6 players with a budget of $100 before
filling out the team with a serpentine draft.
“Owners that have never been through an auction tend to be a little shy of
the first several players. There are usually some bargains to be had on the
first few players. In our draft, the top couple of players go for around $46
to $55. If you can get a bargain early on do so, but save some money for down
the stretch there will be a couple of great bargains at the end for $1 to $5.
Also, sometimes you can shock the room. If Kevin Garnet is the top player, he
should easily go for $50 to $55, maybe even more. If someone throws him out
for bid at say, $5, immediately bid $47, sometimes you can shock the room and
get him for $5 to $8 less than he should have gone. If someone says $48, say
$49, he is still under value if you think he is worth $55. How high you go
after that depends on your plans. Finally, player bidding tends to stop on
"9"s like 19, 29, 39, ..... If you think a player is worth say, $34, and the
bidding is going $23, $24, $25, then say $ 29, sometime thi!
s will scare them off and you save a few bucks.
The key is have a good set of values going in and to not overspend. But
DON'T get your values from a valuation that uses the entire pool. If you do
you will underbid every time. You are only valuing 6 X the number of teams,
not the whole draft pool.”
If others would like to share their draft strategy reply to this email and
I will include in a future preseason notes.
OCTOBER 7 PRESEASON NOTES
I have read some positive news about Glenn Robinson, one of which is
linked to below. Robinson is coming off a season where he achieved career
lows in points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, minutes, and games played.
Much of this can be attributed to injuries. Here is another case where a
player claims to have maintained a rigorous workout routine in the offseason.
Reason to believe his claim is that the 32-year old Robinson is a free agent
at the end of the season. Robinson is a candidate to perform at a level
higher than you get him in the draft. I will see how he is in preseason games
and re-visit his projections.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=nba&id=1896469
Troy Murphy is another player who took a step back last season due to
injury and has a new contract to play for this season. However in the article
below the new Warriors coach is suggesting a deep rotation similar to the
Grizzlies that could put a damper on the fantasy value of all those in Golden
State.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2004/10/07/SPGOB951H41.DTL
Potential sleeper Marquis Daniels sprained his ankle in the offseason and
is not practicing with the team yet. His game projections may be backed down
a little until he appears in a preseason game.
Sam Cassell has showed up for training camp. He is hoping for a healthy
contract extension. Cassell had a career year last season and is at the point
in his career where his performances will likely start to drop off. The
chances of that increase if Minnesota gives him the big money extension he is
looking for.
For those looking for a cheap point guard places to consider are Seattle
and Atlanta. In Seattle, with Brent Barry gone, the candidates are Antonio
Daniels and Luke Ridnour. Daniels has been in the league seven seasons, never
averaging more than 26 mpg. However last season he averaged a 4.2 apg and had
an impressive 4.9 a/to ratio. He also shoots strong percentages but is not
great in the steal category. Ridnour has good assist and steal averages on a
per minute basis but commits more turnovers and has less experience.
Atlanta has Kenny Anderson and Tony Delk at the point guard position. Over
8 seasons, Delk has averaged 21.5 mpg starting in about 25% of these games.
Anderson has been a starter the majority of his career but at the stage he is
at now in his career, even getting over 30 mpg he will have limited fantasy
value. But those in deeper leagues may have use for the player who gets most
of the PG minutes on the Hawks.
Yesterdays blurb for Rodney White was cut off. Here it is again… Rodney
White re-signed with the Nuggets. Despite a lack of stiff competition at
shooting guard (the Nuggets now have Voshon Lenard and Greg Buckner), White
will most likely not be worthy of being on a fantasy roster. However, the
relative lack of competition may give him an opportunity sometime during the
season.
OCTOBER 6 PRESEASON NOTES
The following article indicates Chris Webber is in much better shape than
last season. I will revisit his projections, however it is difficult to put
much faith in a player that has averaged only 58.5 games in ten seasons (this
excludes the 50 game strike shortened 98-99 season). His initial projection
was for 68 games and with all things considered, this seemed relatively
generous.
http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/basketball/kings/story/10983941p-11901263c.html
I added new Atlanta Hawks Antoine Walker and Al Harrington to the sleeper
list in the Report. Both players go from having a secondary role on their
previous team to having a primary role with the Hawks. Of the two, I am more
up on Walker since Harrington is sub-par in assists, treys, steals, and
blocks and has not in the past excelled enough in rebounds and points to
compensate. But as a primary player with the Hawks, there is a possibility he
can take his game to the next level. Walker on the other hand does have the
ability to fill out the stat sheet and has particular value in leagues not
considering FT% and FG%.
Raef LaFrentz reportedly is healing adequately from his injury last season
and is projected to be a starter for the Celtics. He has been off the radar
the past couple seasons and won’t be expensive to acquire this year.
With Eric Snow now in Cleveland, Allen Iverson is projected to start at
point guard with Willie Green at shooting guard. On the Sports Radio here in
Philadelphia, it was mentioned that Iverson wants to lead the league in
assists. I have been debating whether him having the ball in his hands coming
up the court will result in more assists or more shot attempts. I will watch
AI during the preseason to see if he gives a good reason to increase his
assist projections. There was a time when Iverson said before a season he
wanted to league the league in steals…and you know what? – he did.
Willie Green is listed as a sleeper in your report and he is at a turning
point in his career as the projected starting shooting guard for the Sixers.
However, he needs to improve his steal numbers and his FG% and FT% to really
become a desirable fantasy player. When I say steal numbers, I am thinking of
steals per minute. If Iverson is to be a major player in assists someone
needs to be scoring, and Green is the leading candidate for that. Don’t be
surprised to see him average over 15 ppg. Iverson has stated his confidence
in Green’s scoring ability and I have been impressed with his explosiveness.
And speaking of Eric Snow…I have read that the Cavs are planning on
starting Snow at shooting guard with Jeff McInnis at point guard. While this
scenario could rescue both of their fantasy values, shooting has never been a
strong suit of Eric Snow. He has improved over the years but I don’t see him
succeeding at shooting guard.
Rodney White re-signed with the Nuggets. Despite a lack of stiff
competition at shooting guard (the Nuggets now have Voshon Lenard and Greg
Buckner), White will most likely not be worthy of being on a fantasy roster.
However, the relative lack of competition may give
OCTOBER 5 PRESEASON NOTES
With training camp open more detailed info on injuries to players is
coming available.
Marko Jaric of the Clippers has a broken finger and will miss the
beginning of training camp. The other projected starting guard for the
Clippers, Kerry Kittles, is recovering from July knee surgery and will miss
most, if not all, of training camp. If injuries to the starters linger, the
possibility is there that rookie Shaun Livingston will get more playing time.
He will be given a chance to prove himself in training camp.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/clippers/la-sp-clippers5oct05,1,583343.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-nba-clippe
Devean George is expected to miss the first 2-4 four weeks of the regular
season because of surgery to his ankle. I will adjust his projections
accordingly. Another Laker forward (assuming his signs with them), Karl
Malone, does not have a definite return date but will not be ready when the
season begins. Both of these factors contribute to Caron Butler and even Luke
Walton being sleepers. Right now Walton is rated relatively low but I feel he
has a nice upside. His per minutes stats are healthy and he had his moments
last year in the playoffs when Malone was hurt.
Jason Kidd is expected back in December, but considering he is recovering
from a major procedure to his knee I recommend avoiding him even at a
discount.
Kwame Brown is expected to miss the first 1-2 weeks of the season with a
broken toe. His projections have this absence accounted for already.
TJ Ford will not be ready to start the season. Mike James will see extra
minutes early on. James can do some damage to your FG% but contributes treys
and might be a decent late round pick to supplement your assists. Realize you
will probably discard him later in the season for an emerging free agent.
Gary Payton, Vince Carter, and Peja Stojakovic have all showed up for
their teams.
Sam Cassell is not happy with his contract but I think it is unlikely he
will not show up for work. I will look for news though that he has officially
reported to training camp.
The following article discusses that the Bobcats starting five has not
been determined yet. Okafor is probably the only sure starter. The Bobcats
biggest lack of depth is at point guard where Jason Hart is given a vote of
confidence by the coach in the article.
http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/sports/basketball/nba/charlotte_bobcats/9837643.htm
OCTOBER 4TH PRESEASON NOTES
Good afternoon! Welcome to the first preseason emailer initiating the
ninth season for HoopsKlyce fantasy basketball services.
This offseason saw more than 125 veteran players change teams and the
creation of a new expansion team in Charlotte. After a lull in substantive
news the past couple months, the preseason will bring fresh insights upon
which the HoopsKlyce player projections can be adjusted.
The Sun Times published an article
http://www.suntimes.com/output/bulls/cst-spt-bull03.html
in which Eddie Curry claimed he is back this season to make a statement. This
type of news is common in the preseason for many players and for those who
are coming off a disappointing season (or in a disappointing career) I don’t
give it much weight. But in the case of Curry, there is physical evidence of
an off season workout program in that he lost weight. More importantly, at
the end of the season it will be time for him to sign his first big contract.
Curry may very likely put up big numbers in the same manner that Erick
Dampier did last season for the Warriors in his contract year. And by the
way, Curry’s teammate Tyson Chandler has the same inspiration.
For a list other players with similar visions of new contract dollar signs
at the end of this season see the list at the end of this email.
Fantasy managers will need to make a decision on what to do about Grant
Hill. The following article indicates that he has a pulse nowadays. Your
predraft update will have projected stats for Hill and I will be watching his
preseason performances as one source of info for making these projections.
http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Sports/NBA/03SportsNBA070100304.htm
I will be interested to see if Gary Payton decides to report to Boston.
Whether he is there will have a big impact on the value of Marcus Banks with
Marcus making the sleeper list if Payton does not show up.
The preseason should say a lot about what the rotation will be for the
Charlotte Bobcats. I referred back to the inaugural season stats for Toronto
and Vancouver and was reminded the new expansion teams really were not
fertile ground for sleepers but nonetheless I will be looking for those
hidden gems. Jason Kapono and Gerald Wallace are my pre-preseason choices for
sleepers in Charlotte.
Another team that I think will have many similarities to an expansion team
is the New Jersey Nets (at least until Jason Kidd returns). I am not quite
certain yet who will be starting for them beyond Richard Jefferson and will
look to the preseason for more definite answers to that question.
Players to become Free Agents after this season source -
http://www.dfw.net/~patricia/contracts
Adrian Griffin
Alan Henderson
Andrei Kirilenko
Antoine Walker
Antonio Daniels
Brendan Haywood
Chris Crawford
Cuttino Mobley
Dale Davis
Damon Stoudamire
Danny Fortson
Darius Songaila
Darrell Armstrong
DeSagana Diop
DeShawn Stevenson
Donyell Marshall
Eddie Jones
Eddy Curry
Gary Payton
Gerald Wallace
Glenn Robinson
Grant Hill
Greg Ostertag
Jalen Rose
Jamaal Tinsley
Jamal Mashburn
Jason Kapono
Joe Johnson
Keith Van Horn
Kerry Kittles
Kwame Brown
Larry Hughes
Latrell Sprewell
Luke Walton
Marko Jaric
Michael Redd
Raja Bell
Ray Allen
Robert Traylor
Samuel Dalembert
Scottie Pippen
Shaquille O'Neal
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Stromile Swift
Tom Gugliotta
Toni Kukoc
Tony Battie
Tony Delk
Tony Parker
Tracy McGrady
Troy Murphy
Tyronn Lue
Tyson Chandler
Udonis Haslem
Vin Baker
Vitaly Potapenko
Vladimir Radmanovic
Wesley Person
Willie Green
Zach Randolph
Zydrunas Ilgauskas