2004 NBA Draft
August 3, 2004

In the 2004 NBA draft 5 of the 13 lottery picks were High School age players. Typically High School players take a year or two to be able to contribute but Amare Stoudamire and Lebron James have been two recent exceptions. The following are some notes regarding the fantasy potential of 2004 lottery picks and associated impacts of their selection.

1) Orlando, Dwight Howard (HS) - Since he is coming from High School, his success is difficult to pin down. One thing though is for certain and that is he will not be sitting on the bench like Darko did last season. Howard has shown rebounding and shot blocking skills in summer league play but has struggled when defended more physically. He will be playing with Steve Francis who does not have a reputation of getting the big guy the ball but it is certainly better than playing with Tyron Lue. A sign that Orlando will be playing Howard is that they considered Drew Gooden expendable and traded him to Cleveland where he should be given the opportunity to fulfill his potential - something Orlando did not provide last season preferring not play him with Juwan Howard at the same time. Gooden's rebound per minute numbers declined last year from his rookie season but look for them to perk up as he tries to fill the shoes of Carlos Boozer. For Dwight Howard, the preseason will give the best evidence of his ability to transition to the NBA.

2) Charlotte, Emeka Okafor - Of all the rookies, Okafor is in the position to get the most amount of playing time with the least amount of competition. The Bobcats have a roster full of players with very minimal past accomplishments. We will certainly find out about Okafor's back that everyone was wondering about on draft day. Okafor, if healthy, will likely be a league leader in blocks and rebounds. A better determination of his offensive game will be made in the preseason and perhaps during the Olympics if he gets playing time. His owners (with the FT% category) should hope that he does not earn too many trips to the FT line where he would be lucky to hit 60%.

3) Chicago, Ben Gordon - Of the lottery picks, Gordon may be the most NBA ready rookie and with the trading of Crawford should get reliable minutes as a starter. Look for him to be able to contribute points, treys, and steals as a rookie.

4) Clippers, Shaun Livingston (HS) - As blasphemous as it may sound, I have heard Livingston's potential being compared to Magic Johnson. The drafting of Livingston essentially means Marko Jaric's bid to have fantasy value as the Clippers point guard is over. Livingston may be a dark horse selection for assists.

5) Dallas, Devin Harris - With Steve Nash gone Harris had the potential to start and have substantial value as the starting point guard on the team that lead the NBA last year in scoring. Harris also showed he can score in college and did very well in summer league play. However, with the rumored trade bringing Jason Terry to Dallas, Harris' fantasy potential will take a big blow.

6) Atlanta, Josh Childress - Childress is one of those players who does not give me good vibes. In college he was a well rounded player where I like to see a player coming in that has a particular strength. Well rounded average stats often translate into a player like Tayshaun Prince with mediocre fantasy value. Additionally, one of the Hawks better players now is Al Harrington who plays the same position as Childress.

7) Chicago, Luol Deng -His summer league performances have shown his promise and he looks to earn the starting SF position. The trading away of Jamal Crawford for a bunch of expiring contracts should propel him to having fantasy value in his rookie season.

8) Toronto, Rafael Araujo - When he was drafted my first reaction was "Who is he?", but what I have learned is that he is the oldest and most physical lottery rookie in the 2004 draft. Clearly Toronto was drafting for size at this spot and not necessarily the best available player. Examples of players taken around this point in the draft for their size include Joel Przybilla (#9, 2000), DeSagna Diop (#8, 2001), and Robert Traylor (#6, 1998). Of course there are other who may not turn out so bad such as Chris Wilcox (#8, 2002). The Raptors have no good bangers to play in the middle so Araujo could find himself with plenty of playing time (allowing Chris Bosh to grow as a power forward - a better spot for him to reach his potential) but a lack of shot blocking abilities will hamper his fantasy value.

9) Philadelphia Andre Iguodala - The drafting of AI contributed to the Sixers considering Eric Snow and his recent contract expendable. Aaron McKie should continue his trend of diminishing playing time (decreases since the 00-01 season) and open the door for the rookie Iguodala to play some significant minutes. He has the non-scoring skills needed to complement the other AI and stay on the court.

10) Cleveland, Luke Jackson - The Cavaliers were last in the league in three point % at 31.4% last season and hence the selection of Jackson. Of the lottery picks, at age 23, only Araujo is older making Jackson more physically mature than a typical rookie. Jackson does not have much competition for the small forward position and will have the opportunity to earn playing time by hitting the three to take pressure off of LeBron.

11) Golden State, Andris Biedrins (HS) - Biedrins represents another high school age rookie. Ideally Golden State would like him play limited minutes behind Troy Murphy.

12) Seattle, Robert Swift (HS) - Seattle is hoping that Swift will someday develop into a serviceable big man - something they don't have right now. Coming straight from high school, next season won't be the time.

13) Portland, Sebastian Telfair (HS) - With Stoudemire and Van Exel on the Blazers roster, Telfair will have to do a lot of sitting his rookie season.