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Offseason Keeper League Decisions
August 7, 2005


A past subscriber presented the following situation  recently regarding his fantasy basketball keeper league:

Having won last year's league (with your help - thank you), I already have a couple of trade offers I am considering: I am a keeper league with $50 roster salary for 12 players with 10 teams in the league.  You can keep 6 and I have too many keepers. Roto system with P, A, R, S, B, 3, FT%, FG%.

I have:
Iverson at $10
Carter at $10.10
Gasol at $6.60
A. Stoudamire at $3.50
Jamison at $3.30
Nash at $8.90
D. Stoudemire at $2.30
Dunleavy at $1
D. Mason at $0 (reserve)

Someone is offering me Ginobili at .10 (but I'd have to bump him $1/year or lose him at the end of the year) and Bosh (or S. Jackson
) at .10 for Iverson and Carter.  I probably would have kept Iverson but Ginobili and Bosh at .10 plus what I bump them up for looks good to me.  Players that are available (not being kept) in the draft include Garnett, Shaq, Jermaine O’Neal, and Kobe.  What are your thoughts? 

My response:
My preliminary values for your auction system for a non-keeper draft (05-06 season) are shown below with your current contract for them following in parentheses:

Iverson $11.57 ($10.00)
Carter
  $9.99 ($10.10)
Gasol $6.56  ($6.60)
A Stoudemire $13.90 (3.50)
D Mason $0.31 ($0)
Dunleavy
  $1.06 ($1)
Nash
  $7.18 ($8.90)

The players being offered @ $.10:

Ginobili  $6.95
Bosh
  $6.40
S Jackson $4.80

First of all, getting Ginobili and Bosh at $.10 is extremely attractive considering Iverson and Carter are not being held all that much under their value compared to the players you would receive.   You also have Nash and Gasol at or over their market value.  So theoretically you could just throw them back or give in a trade without any real detriment to your team since you should get similar value back in the auction (if not the same player). 

There seems to be a sufficient supply of great players who are worth the money you will have to spend.  If there weren’t enough good players available you could be at risk of filling out your team and still having substantial money in your pocket - or in other words not have the best team you could have otherwise fielded had you kept your equity in Iverson and Carter. 

At $3.50, you have A. Stoudamire at around $10 under his market value so keeping him is critical to your success.  Keeping A. Stoudamire is even more attractive than getting Ginobili or Bosh at $0.10 since those players would only be around $6 under their market value. So it is good your are not being asked for him.

Iverson has some downside in that as he gets older he is at more risk to be hurt, something that has been an issue with him in the past.  Carter put up some great numbers once he got to the Nets last season but much of that time Jefferson was out.  Also, if Shareef makes it to the Nets they will have another quality player that might serve to take some of Carter’s scoring numbers away.

You would be able to (and should) win the bidding for a player like Garnett tapping into the made cash available by your deal.  Paying market value or a little premium is OK for a superstar since you need to make sure you have a guy like that on your team.  You could then with the balance of the money (still from Manu and Bosh) go fishing for some mid-level guys with 'blow up' potential.  Guys like Childress, Iguodala, Gordon, D. Howard ---if these guys are available.  Your upcoming HoopsKlyce draft report will identify other candidates 

So my thoughts – take the deal!

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