The Kevin Garnett Trade: Fantasy Analysis
August 1, 2007
Kevin Garnett was traded to the Boston Celtics in exchange for
Al Jefferson,
Ryan Gomes,
Gerald Green,
Sebastian Telfair, and
Theo Ratliff (and two future draft picks). This has created
quite a buzz about the upcoming “Big Three” combination of Garnett,
Paul Pierce, and
Ray Allen. In recent seasons all three have warranted a first
round selection. Many managers might assume Garnett will maintain
that first round status but I think there might be some risk in that
regard since all three will likely not score quite as much as in
recent seasons. It would be wise to plan accordingly.
The Big Three may be needed to play
heavy minutes as a result of the Celtics lack of depth subsequent to
the trade, but they were already logging fairly heavy minutes.
Note, if one of the three gets hurt, a possibility considering the
recent history of Pierce and Allen, the other two’s fantasy value
would likely spike up to their ‘pre-trade’ values.
Rajon Rondo and
Kendrick Perkins are projected to complete the Celtics starting
five and with the lack of depth on the Celtics should be a lock to
get consistent minutes. This should make Rondo a nice late round
selection who can contribute steals and assists. Any points he
provides would be a bonus. I expect though that the Celtics will
sign a Brevin Knight-type of veteran point guard that would reduce
the current minute projections for Rondo. Perkins also moves up the
fantasy depth chart as a result and in deeper leagues will be a
great late round selection who has the potential to provide rebounds
and blocks.
Looking further into the Boston
situation, someone will need to be on the court when the starters
need a rest. With the Celtics projected lack of depth, these
players could get heavier minutes than typical reserves. This makes
Tony Allen an interesting sleeper candidate. In his 5 games
before a season ending ACL injury last January he averaged 20.8 pts,
4.0 steals, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. Allen may miss the start
of the season as he continues his recovery so he may be a player to
pick up as a free agent or use a last draft pick on. When playing,
he has the potential to be the Celtics 4th leading scorer
and make an impact in steals. Another player who may deserve some
in-season attention in deep leagues is
Leon Powe. He has shown some rebounding potential and is good
at getting to the free throw line.
In Minnesota, where the roster is now void of
any established stars,
Randy Foye,
Rickey Davis, and Al Jefferson should all provide solid fantasy
value. Foye in particular should see the biggest fantasy value
increase from last season and be a good sleeper candidate as some
managers might feel Sebastian Telfair will threaten his playing
time. Foye has shown the potential to fill out the stat sheet and
he should get heavy minutes. Al Jefferson as well should build on
his success from last season and understand coming into the season
he will receive all the minutes he can handle. Davis has the
potential to become a 20 point scorer.
The other two starting spots may need to be won
in training camp as the Timberwolves will have multiple choices at
each position. There is also a real chance that those two spots are
manned by big committees. I like the potential of
Ryan Gomes and
Craig Smith at the small forward position. Smith has shown nice
rebounding potential and Gomes suddenly showed at the end of last
season he has the skills to hit the three point shot which would
improve his chances of winning time at SF next to Jefferson. But
with rookie
Corey Brewer and
Trenton Hassell it could be that the SF position ends up falling
into the aforementioned committee situation. |