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00-01 PRESEASON NOTES
THE FIRST WEEK

    10/03/00 - 10/08/00

 

These are emailers that were sent out during the preseason. To receive similar emails during the regular season subscribe to the HoopsKlyce Fast Break regular season emailer.


Subj: Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Date: 10/8/00 7:01:21 PM Pacific Daylight Time

Bob Finnan of the News Herald in a recent Sporting News team report referred to Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Z) as "perhaps the most injury-prone player in Cavs' history." Quite a statement considering the franchise has also had Mark Price and Brad Daugherty.

I decided to not project stats for Z since he has played only five games in the past two seasons and is such a wild card because of his injury history. That is why you will not find him on your depth chart. So far the news concerning Z's preseason workouts has been positive (or negative if you will hoping to get Chris Mihm).

He made it through the first week of practices with no real bad news. Where to take Z would really be a function of your ability to accept the risk associated with knowing his foot could explode at any step. You might also be driven to take on this risk if you really need to fill the center spot in your league.

If I were drafting today I might take Z but probably not until one of my last picks (say after 100 players have been selected). At the same time I would try to get Chris Mihm as a backup. Mihm's fantasy value will be directly related to whether Z is healthy (actually, also on whether he has an NBA game which we have yet to find out).

Subscriber Bob Radl who is from the Cleveland area forwarded the following to me in an email:

The CAVS had a free scrimmage yesterday at the GUND arena in Cleveland. Zydrunas Ilgauskas looked real good in the scrimmage. Here is what the Cleveland Plain Dealer said about the scrimmage and Zydrunas:

Zydrunas Ilgauskas, in his first appearance since foot surgery on Jan. 26, looked good with 13 points and 13 rebounds- and an immeasurable amount of relief. "I thought he looked great," Wittman said of Ilgauskas. "He was very active on the boards. I thought he was patient offensively. He didn't force things. He let things come to him which is important for him right now, That was encouraging to see that he didn't press. He didn't try to do too much."


Subj: Alonzo Mourning has kidney disorder

Date: 10/8/00 5:47:44 AM Pacific Daylight Time

Alonzo Mourning will be sidelined indefinitely by an apparent kidney disorder. Mourning has missed the first four days of training camp and further tests are planned to determine more about his condition. At this time there has been no further comment from Mourning or the Heat on exactly what is going on here. We don't know if indefinitely is two weeks or even the season.

For right now I have decreased the projections of Mourning which essentially knocks him from a first round to a second round pick in most leagues because of his condition. If my draft were held today I would probably find every excuse to pick around him. I am not the type who wants to have to worry during the preseason whether one of my top players will be missing the season or not.

Mourning is one of the very few centers who could be considered in the same class as Shaquille O'Neal. If Mourning is out the value of O'Neal is amplified even further in leagues which have position requirements. Even the next level of centers which includes Mutombo and Robinson would have an increased value.

In Miami, if Mourning is out, Brian Grant would certainly be seeing even more minutes since the Heat backup centers are Duane Causewell and Todd Fuller.


Subj: Creative Draft Day Strategies

Date: 10/6/00 7:24:23 PM Pacific Daylight Time

 

For those who don't mind being a little manipulative by trying to alter opponents opinions of players for your benefit, I offer the following creative draft day strategies.

Strategy #1 - Increase the perceived value of a player to avoid

The following article is giving Sixers rookie guard Craig Claxton some hype. http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/articles/20001006/264659.html

The chances of Claxton having any fantasy value this season are very remote since the Sixers really can't afford to have him on the floor with Allen Iverson at the same time. Claxton is slated to play on the second unit with Aaron McKie in the backcourt. If you can bring to your opponents attention to what a sleeper Claxton could be (perhaps by referring them to this article or whatever) and induce them to burn one of their picks on him you could give yourself a slight advantage. Hey why not, it's just a game. Claxton may actually crank out an impressive preseason game or two. By the way the following link has a preseason schedule:

http://www.nba.com/news/preseason_schedule_000801.html

But this kind of strategy really isn't going get you too far ahead (although it could be kind of fun to see someone fall for your propaganda ploy) so I offer the next strategy.

Strategy #2 - Decrease the perceived value of a player you want

Paul Pierce suffered a stab wound which seemed kind of serious but as far as I can tell it looks as if it should not have a big impact on his play. Perhaps some subtle reminders to fellow managers of Pierce's injury might make them apprehensive to take him and let him drop to you at a bargain in your draft.

Grant Hill and Tim Duncan are coming off injuries as well. I have yet to determine their exact condition but if they seem OK it might not be a bad idea remind everyone in your draft of the seriousness of their injury from last season.

I imagine some of you out there have the personality to make some very effective use of this subtle strategy.


Subj: The Detroit Pistons Frontcourt

Date: 10/6/00 4:33:06 AM Pacific Daylight Time

Last season the Detroit Pistons started Grant Hill, Christian Laettner, and Terry Mills in the front court. All three of these players departed in the offseason. This upcoming season Detroit has the following players to chose from for playing in the frontcourt; Cedric Ceballos, Ben Wallace, Jerome Williams, and Mikki Moore. None of these players averaged over 30 mpg last season and three of them (Wallace, Williams, and Moore played less than 26 mpg).

Ceballos will most likely start and play more than 30 mpg and provide points and rebounds. But he has historically been a very injury prone player and would be risky to jump at too soon in a draft.

The other three players are prime sleeper candidates since they will most likely will all play bigger roles this year than they have in the past. I thought there would be a number of sleeper candidates last year though with Orlando at this time of the year but then Doc Rivers implement the team by committee approach so that few had fantasy value.

With frontcourt alternates in Detroit being players such as Eric Montross, I think the chance are pretty good someone will emerge as a serviceable fantasy player at power forward or center with the Pistons. Last year Jerome Williams grabbed 9.6 rpg in limited time. Ben Wallace can block shots and rebound. Mikki Moore is one of those young, tall, and slender players who may have some trouble against some of the Eastern Conference big centers --- wait, there aren't many big centers in the Eastern Conference are there!! Moore averaged 1 bl and 8 pts in only 17 mpg last year. He playing time and output should improve this year.


Subj: The New York Knicks

Date: 10/4/00 6:57:47 PM Pacific Daylight Time

Commenting on the New York Knicks without Patrick Ewing, Chris Childs said, "We're going to be the same team we've always been. Defense, rebounding, and try to just outwork the opposing team."

The only problem is the Knicks may be finding it very hard to come up with the rebounding component of this strategy. With Luc Longley potentially out for a bit with an injury and really not the answer to the rebounding problem, candidates for getting Knick rebounds include Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, and even Travis Knight. Based on their past statistics each of these players would get around 7-8 rebounds if they played 30 minutes per game. A common problem with all three of these players though is fouling. They may not be able to stay on the court long enough to accumulate rebounds.

Marcus Camby could end up having a substantial increase in fantasy value since in addition to rebounding he can block a lot of shots and score some. But he has never weathered an 82 games season well missing around 20 games in each of the three full seasons he has participated in. With Camby then would come a sizable injury risk.

Thomas and Knight might end up as a potential free agents pick up in your league for rebounds if for some reason the Knicks don't go with the center by committee approach. Even when Luc Longley is healthy I don't expect he will have much fantasy value and his presence will probably be enough to insure Thomas and Knight don't have value as well.

The three best offensive players for the Knicks will be Latrell Sprewell, Allan Houston, and Glen Rice. I feel the Knicks will try to keep these three players on the court as much as possible unless they start getting killed on the boards more than they can tolerate. Last year Spree played some point and he may see some time there again at the expense of the already limited fantasy potential of Charlie Ward. Sprewell also has the flexibility of playing shooting guard and small forward and so I think his playing time should be safe and that his stats could flourish not only from additional assists from being at the point but also by helping the Knicks to grab a couple extra boards. He has averaged 5 rpg in the past and averaged 6.3 apg in 80 games in a season with Golden State. He is OK in steals, can block shots well for a guard, and shoots a nice percentage from the line. If any player can benefit from the new look of the Knicks I believe it will be Latrell.


Subj: Preseason Injuries

Date: 10/4/00 3:25:26 AM Pacific Daylight Time

I had been somewhat concerned about the stabbing injury suffered by Paul Pierce. When it first happened not much was said as to how it would affect his play. I have since read that he is not able to practice hard now but should not be too slowed down at the beginning of the season.

The most serious wound was a punctured lung but even the prognosis for this has been favorable. I still made a slight deduction in the projected output of Pierce to be safe. It seems to me he will still have some risk associated with these injuries and we may need to wait for the rigors of the season to truly find out that he will be OK.

Matt Geiger tore cartilage and sprained ligaments in the knee in a training camp game. At this time how long he will be out is not known. Geiger's absence will bolster the fantasy value of Theo Ratliff and give Todd MacCulloch an opportunity for fantasy value in deeper league (160 players).

Derrick Coleman may start the season slowly as he misses a couple weeks of training camp while adjusting to new heart medicine.

Jamie Feick has chronic Achilles tendinitis of the ankle with a calcium deposit and will undergo surgery later this week. The starting center for the Nets remains a question mark and if Feick misses games it will increase the chances of Evan Eschmeyer getting more minutes and having some fantasy value.

Luscious Harris, shooting guard for the Nets will miss some time because of surgery for a hernia. Harris would have filled in for Kerry Kittles who will be out a couple months with an injury. Kendall Gill could end up logging heavy minutes as a result of these injuries.


Subj: Tsakalidis is a Sun

Date: 10/3/00 3:10:44 AM Pacific Daylight Time

An arbitrator has ruled that Iakovos Tsakalidis is not contractually bound to a Greek pro basketball team and will be with the Suns for the start of training camp. I had not projected stats for him since I was not sure if he would be available and since he has played overseas the past four seasons for AEK in Greece.

I will mostly use training camp to evaluate what his fantasy potential will be. My gut reaction is that he will have little fantasy value despite the Suns beginning the season shorthanded with Gugliotta still recovering and Corie Blount slowed by arthroscopic surgery on his knee. That leaves Chris Dudley as his competition for playing time in addition to a new player named Daniel Santiago.

I looked up Tsakalidis' stats for his most recent year in Greece. He averaged 9.2 pts and 7 reb in 22 games. I did not find any block stats but scouts say he can block some shots. The point and rebound stats seem particularly unimpressive to me considering he is 7-2 and playing in Europe. Most NBA scrubs usually score around 15-20 ppg when playing overseas.

Most mock drafts (features/mock.shtml) had Tsakalidis going in the top ten so he will be worth a look-see in training camp to see what has got.

 

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